Football · Slovenia 2. SNL · 14/08, 20:00

Prediction: Tabor Sezana vs NK Triglav Kranj

Team pages: Tabor Sezana · NK Triglav Kranj

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.57Total

Tabor Sezana1.21

NK Triglav Kranj1.37

1X2

32% 27% 40%

Tabor Sezana Draw NK Triglav Kranj

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Tabor Sezana 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

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NK Triglav Kranj 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Tabor Sezana 3–1–2 NK Triglav Kranj (6 last)

Tabor Sezana0-1NK Triglav Kranj
NK Triglav Kranj0-1Tabor Sezana
Tabor Sezana2-0NK Triglav Kranj
NK Triglav Kranj3-2Tabor Sezana
NK Triglav Kranj1-2Tabor Sezana
Tabor Sezana2-2NK Triglav Kranj

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Tabor Sezana 1479 · NK Triglav Kranj 1530

	Tabor Sezana	Draw	NK Triglav Kranj
Our model	32%	29%	39%
Market	33%	26%	41%

Estimated total (ours) 2.57 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours NK Triglav Kranj (rating 1479 vs 1530).
H2H favours Tabor Sezana: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Tabor Sezana	NK Triglav Kranj
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.7	1.6 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.5	0.6 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 3.9	1.6 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0	4 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.70

X3.40

22.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.80

2 (-0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.98

Under 2.751.82

Diff.: 0 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 19:15

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.70 → 2.75▲	Bet365 2.75
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	2.20 → 2.20	Bet365 2.20

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
14:04 +22’	2.70	3.40	2.20
18:55 +20’	2.75▲	3.40	2.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Tabor Sezana 3–1–2 NK Triglav Kranj

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/05/26 Slovenia 2. SNL	Tabor Sezana	0-1 HT 0-0	NK Triglav Kranj
02/11/25 Slovenia 2. SNL	NK Triglav Kranj	0-1 HT 0-1	Tabor Sezana
18/04/25 Slovenia 2. SNL	Tabor Sezana	2-0 HT 0-0	NK Triglav Kranj
04/10/24 Slovenia 2. SNL	NK Triglav Kranj	3-2 HT 1-0	Tabor Sezana
04/11/23 Slovenia 2. SNL	NK Triglav Kranj	1-2 HT 1-1	Tabor Sezana
29/07/23 Slovenia 2. SNL	Tabor Sezana	2-2 HT 1-0	NK Triglav Kranj

Standings · Slovenia 2. SNL

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Jadran Dekani	1	1	0	0	3	0	3
1	Tabor Sezana	1	1	0	0	3	0	3
3	ND Beltinci	1	1	0	0	2	0	3
4	NK Bilje	1	1	0	0	2	1	3
4	NK Krsko	1	1	0	0	2	1	3
6	ND Ilirija Ljubljana	1	1	0	0	1	0	3
6	NK Triglav Kranj	1	1	0	0	1	0	3
8	NK Krka	1	0	1	0	0	0	1
8	NK Bistrica	1	0	1	0	0	0	1
10	NK Brezice	1	0	0	1	1	2	0
10	NK Primorje Ajdovscina	1	0	0	1	1	2	0
12	ND Dravinja	1	0	0	1	0	1	0
12	NK Vrhnika	1	0	0	1	0	1	0
14	NK Rudar Velenje	1	0	0	1	0	2	0
15	NK Jesenice	1	0	0	1	0	3	0
15	ND Slovan Ljubljana	1	0	0	1	0	3	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Tabor Sezana	NK Triglav Kranj
NK Jesenice	3-0 W	3-0 W
NK Nafta 1903	0-2 L	1-1 D
NK Bistrica	1-2 L	0-4 L
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 2 L	1 W 1 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Tabor Sezana

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	NK Jesenice Slovenia 2. SNL	2-0	3-0	3	3	W
10/07	NK Brinje Grosuplje Europe Friendlies	1-0	2-1	2	2	W
23/05	NK Rudar Velenje Slovenia 2. SNL	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
17/05	ND Slovan Ljubljana Slovenia 2. SNL	0-1	1-5	4	6	L
10/05	NK Triglav Kranj Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	0-1	3	5	L
06/05	NK Brinje Grosuplje Slovenia 2. SNL	0-2	1-2	4	4	L
02/05	ND Beltinci Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	0-2	–	–	L
26/04	NK Bilje Slovenia 2. SNL	1-0	1-2	–	–	L
17/04	NK Nafta 1903 Slovenia 2. SNL	0-2	0-2	6	3	L
12/04	NK Bistrica Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	1-2	5	3	L

NK Triglav Kranj

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/08	NK Vrhnika Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	1-0	4	5	W
25/07	Waldhof Mannheim Europe Friendlies	1-2	1-4	2	2	L
24/07	HNK Segesta Europe Friendlies	2-2	2-2	3	7	D
22/05	NK Nafta 1903 Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	1-1	1	4	D
16/05	NK Bistrica Slovenia 2. SNL	0-1	0-4	3	7	L
10/05	Tabor Sezana Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	1-0	4	5	W
06/05	Jadran Dekani Slovenia 2. SNL	1-0	2-0	6	4	W
30/04	NK Jesenice Slovenia 2. SNL	1-0	3-0	7	3	W
24/04	NK Krsko Slovenia 2. SNL	1-0	4-0	6	0	W
18/04	ND Gorica Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	1-0	4	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Tabor Sezana vs NK Triglav Kranj?

According to our model, the most likely result is an NK Triglav Kranj win (40%). Probabilities: Tabor Sezana 32%, draw 27%, NK Triglav Kranj 40%.

How many goals are expected in Tabor Sezana vs NK Triglav Kranj?

The model expects 2.57 goals (Tabor Sezana 1.21 · NK Triglav Kranj 1.37), with a 56% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Tabor Sezana vs NK Triglav Kranj?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.