Football · Slovenia 2. SNL · 15/08, 17:30

Prediction: NK Bistrica vs ND Ilirija Ljubljana

Team pages: NK Bistrica · ND Ilirija Ljubljana

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.84Total

NK Bistrica1.69

ND Ilirija Ljubljana1.15

1X2

49% 26% 25%

NK Bistrica Draw ND Ilirija Ljubljana

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

NK Bistrica 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

WLLWWLLDLD

ND Ilirija Ljubljana 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

DWWLLWLLLW

Head-to-head

NK Bistrica 2–3–1 ND Ilirija Ljubljana (6 last)

ND Ilirija Ljubljana2-1NK Bistrica
NK Bistrica2-2ND Ilirija Ljubljana
ND Ilirija Ljubljana0-0NK Bistrica
NK Bistrica2-2ND Ilirija Ljubljana
ND Ilirija Ljubljana0-2NK Bistrica
NK Bistrica1-0ND Ilirija Ljubljana

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · NK Bistrica 1468 · ND Ilirija Ljubljana 1475

	NK Bistrica	Draw	ND Ilirija Ljubljana
Our model	49%	26%	25%
Market	49%	26%	25%

Estimated total (ours) 2.84 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours NK Bistrica: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	NK Bistrica	ND Ilirija Ljubljana
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 2.2	1 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 1	0.5 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	0.7 / 2.8	0.7 / 3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.2	3.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.83

X3.40

23.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.88

2 (+0.5)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.82

Under 2.51.98

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 16:04

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.57 → 2.25▲	Bet365 2.25
X	3.70 → 3.25▼	Bet365 3.25
2	4.75 → 2.75▼	Pinn 2.80 ★

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 11.6% Pinnacle margin 15%

Time*	1	X	2
14:23 +11’	1.57	3.70	4.75
07:50 +8’	1.83▲	3.40▼	3.60▼
16:02 +2’	2.25▲	3.25▼	2.75▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
07:56 +1’	1.88	3.45	3.03
15:31 +33’	2.08▲	3.20▼	2.80▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · NK Bistrica 2–3–1 ND Ilirija Ljubljana

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/04/26 Slovenia 2. SNL	ND Ilirija Ljubljana	2-1 HT 0-1	NK Bistrica
04/10/25 Slovenia 2. SNL	NK Bistrica	2-2 HT 0-2	ND Ilirija Ljubljana
02/03/25 Slovenia 2. SNL	ND Ilirija Ljubljana	0-0 HT 0-0	NK Bistrica
17/08/24 Slovenia 2. SNL	NK Bistrica	2-2 HT 0-2	ND Ilirija Ljubljana
23/03/24 Slovenia 2. SNL	ND Ilirija Ljubljana	0-2 HT 0-1	NK Bistrica
08/09/23 Slovenia 2. SNL	NK Bistrica	1-0 HT 1-0	ND Ilirija Ljubljana

Standings · Slovenia 2. SNL

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tabor Sezana	2	2	0	0	4	0	6
2	NK Krsko	2	1	1	0	3	2	4
3	Jadran Dekani	1	1	0	0	3	0	3
4	ND Beltinci	1	1	0	0	2	0	3
5	NK Rudar Velenje	2	1	0	1	3	2	3
6	NK Bilje	1	1	0	0	2	1	3
7	ND Ilirija Ljubljana	1	1	0	0	1	0	3
8	NK Triglav Kranj	2	1	0	1	1	1	3
9	NK Bistrica	1	0	1	0	0	0	1
10	NK Jesenice	2	0	1	1	1	4	1
11	NK Krka	2	0	1	1	0	3	1
12	NK Brezice	1	0	0	1	1	2	0
12	NK Primorje Ajdovscina	1	0	0	1	1	2	0
14	ND Dravinja	1	0	0	1	0	1	0
14	NK Vrhnika	1	0	0	1	0	1	0
16	ND Slovan Ljubljana	1	0	0	1	0	3	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	NK Bistrica	ND Ilirija Ljubljana
NK Krka	0-0 D	4-1 W
ND Beltinci	0-3 L	1-3 L
NK Bilje	3-0 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: ND Ilirija Ljubljana (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

NK Bistrica

WLLWWLLDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/08	NK Krka Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	0-0	1	2	D
29/07	Lecce Club Friendly List	1-3	2-5	–	–	L
21/07	Zeljeznicar Europe Friendlies	1-1	1-1	0	4	D
18/07	ASK Voitsberg Europe Friendlies	2-2	4-5	2	2	L
14/07	FC Bihor Oradea Club Friendly List	0-1	0-4	4	3	L
23/05	ND Slovan Ljubljana Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	1-0	3	6	W
16/05	NK Triglav Kranj Slovenia 2. SNL	1-0	4-0	2	7	W
09/05	NK Brinje Grosuplje Slovenia 2. SNL	0-2	0-4	4	6	L
06/05	ND Beltinci Slovenia 2. SNL	0-1	0-3	1	4	L
30/04	NK Bilje Slovenia 2. SNL	1-0	3-0	8	4	W

ND Ilirija Ljubljana

DWWLLWLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/08	ND Dravinja Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	1-0	2	5	W
22/07	FK Backa Topola Club Friendly List	0-2	0-4	–	–	L
22/05	ND Beltinci Slovenia 2. SNL	1-3	1-3	4	4	L
15/05	ND Gorica Slovenia 2. SNL	0-1	0-1	0	3	L
09/05	NK Bilje Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	1-0	5	2	W
06/05	ND Dravinja Slovenia 2. SNL	1-0	1-2	2	3	L
30/04	NK Nafta 1903 Slovenia 2. SNL	0-2	0-2	3	3	L
24/04	NK Krka Slovenia 2. SNL	3-1	4-1	5	3	W
17/04	NK Bistrica Slovenia 2. SNL	0-1	2-1	–	–	W
11/04	NK Rudar Velenje Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	0-0	3	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in NK Bistrica vs ND Ilirija Ljubljana?

According to our model, the most likely result is a NK Bistrica win (49%). Probabilities: NK Bistrica 49%, draw 26%, ND Ilirija Ljubljana 25%.

How many goals are expected in NK Bistrica vs ND Ilirija Ljubljana?

The model expects 2.84 goals (NK Bistrica 1.69 · ND Ilirija Ljubljana 1.15), with a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in NK Bistrica vs ND Ilirija Ljubljana?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.