Football · Poland I Liga · 08/08, 20:15

Prediction: Podbeskidzie Bielsko Biala vs Lechia Gdansk

Team pages: Podbeskidzie Bielsko Biala · Lechia Gdansk

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.22Total

Podbeskidzie Bielsko Biala2.03

Lechia Gdansk1.19

1X2

56% 23% 21%

Podbeskidzie Bielsko Biala Draw Lechia Gdansk

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Podbeskidzie Bielsko Biala 5-5-0 (W-D-L)

WDWWWDWDDD

Lechia Gdansk 0-1-9 (W-D-L)

LDLLLLLLLL

Head-to-head

Podbeskidzie Bielsko Biala 0–2–4 Lechia Gdansk (6 last)

Podbeskidzie Bielsko Biala1-2Lechia Gdansk
Lechia Gdansk3-0Podbeskidzie Bielsko Biala
Podbeskidzie Bielsko Biala2-2Lechia Gdansk
Lechia Gdansk4-0Podbeskidzie Bielsko Biala
Lechia Gdansk5-0Podbeskidzie Bielsko Biala
Podbeskidzie Bielsko Biala1-1Lechia Gdansk

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Podbeskidzie Bielsko Biala 1562 · Lechia Gdansk 1384

	Podbeskidzie Bielsko Biala	Draw	Lechia Gdansk
Our model	56%	23%	21%
Market	56%	24%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 3.22 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Podbeskidzie Bielsko Biala (rating 1562 vs 1384).
H2H favours Lechia Gdansk: 4-2-0.
High corners: 13 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Podbeskidzie Bielsko Biala	Lechia Gdansk
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 1.2	0.8 / 2.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.7	0.2 / 1.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	0/20/80%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 6	3 / 7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0.2	3.9 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.61

X3.80

24.33

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.80

2 (+0.75)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 32.00

Under 31.80

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:36

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.61 → 1.61	Bet365 1.61
X	3.80 → 3.80	Pinn 4.63
2	4.33 → 4.33	Pinn 6.17 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3% Pinnacle margin 7.6%

Time*	1	X	2
14:24 +12’	1.61	3.80	4.33

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
16:40	1.50	4.31	5.38
17:42 +1’	1.43▼	4.63▲	6.17▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Podbeskidzie Bielsko Biala 0–2–4 Lechia Gdansk

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/03/24 Poland I Liga	Podbeskidzie Bielsko Biala	1-2 HT 1-0	Lechia Gdansk
25/08/23 Poland I Liga	Lechia Gdansk	3-0 HT 1-0	Podbeskidzie Bielsko Biala
06/03/21 Poland Ekstraklasa	Podbeskidzie Bielsko Biala	2-2 HT 1-1	Lechia Gdansk
26/09/20 Poland Ekstraklasa	Lechia Gdansk	4-0 HT 3-0	Podbeskidzie Bielsko Biala
13/02/16 Poland Ekstraklasa	Lechia Gdansk	5-0 HT 0-0	Podbeskidzie Bielsko Biala
28/08/15 Poland Ekstraklasa	Podbeskidzie Bielsko Biala	1-1 HT 1-1	Lechia Gdansk

Standings · Poland I Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Arka Gdynia	2	2	0	0	5	0	6
2	Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki	2	2	0	0	4	0	6
3	Termalica BB Nieciecza	2	2	0	0	4	1	6
3	Polonia Warsaw	2	2	0	0	4	1	6
5	Miedz Legnica	2	1	1	0	3	1	4
6	Stal Mielec	2	1	1	0	5	4	4
7	LKS Lodz	2	1	1	0	3	2	4
8	Chrobry Glogow	2	1	0	1	5	2	3
9	Warta Poznan	2	1	0	1	6	4	3
10	Polonia Bytom	2	1	0	1	5	5	3
11	Odra Opole	2	1	0	1	1	1	3
12	Podbeskidzie Bielsko Biala	2	0	2	0	4	4	2
13	MKP Pogon Siedlce	2	0	1	1	2	3	1
14	Puszcza Niepolomice	2	0	0	2	0	2	0
15	Unia Skierniewice	2	0	0	2	2	5	0
16	Ruch Chorzow	2	0	0	2	0	4	0
17	Lechia Gdansk	2	0	0	2	0	6	0
18	Stal Rzeszow	2	0	0	2	1	9	0

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Podbeskidzie Bielsko Biala

WDWWWDWDDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/08	Stal Mielec Poland I Liga	0-3	3-3	6	5	D
27/07	Miedz Legnica Poland I Liga	1-0	1-1	8	4	D
18/07	Termalica BB Nieciecza Europe Friendlies	0-1	1-1	4	1	D
07/07	Banik Ostrava B Europe Friendlies	0-0	2-1	4	2	W
04/07	Zaglebie Sosnowiec Europe Friendlies	1-1	2-2	9	5	D
06/06	Sandecja Nowy Sacz Poland II Liga	1-0	3-1	7	7	W
02/06	Slask Wroclaw II Poland League II Play-Offs	0-1	2-1	8	4	W
30/05	Podhale Nowy Targ Poland II Liga	1-1	2-1	5	4	W
23/05	Resovia Rzeszow Poland II Liga	0-0	1-1	4	12	D
16/05	Sokol Kleczew Poland II Liga	2-0	3-0	5	3	W

Lechia Gdansk

LDLLLLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/07	Warta Poznan Poland I Liga	0-3	0-3	9	3	L
25/07	Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki Poland I Liga	0-1	0-3	3	1	L
04/07	Olimpia Grudziadz Europe Friendlies	1-3	1-3	8	2	L
23/05	Termalica BB Nieciecza Poland Ekstraklasa	0-2	2-3	10	7	L
17/05	Legia Warsaw Poland Ekstraklasa	0-1	1-2	4	7	L
09/05	Widzew Lodz Poland Ekstraklasa	0-3	1-3	2	6	L
04/05	Radomiak Radom Poland Ekstraklasa	0-2	1-3	7	4	L
25/04	Rakow Czestochowa Poland Ekstraklasa	1-1	1-2	3	4	L
20/04	Piast Gliwice Poland Ekstraklasa	0-0	1-1	11	5	D
10/04	Wisla Plock Poland Ekstraklasa	0-1	0-1	13	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Podbeskidzie Bielsko Biala vs Lechia Gdansk?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Podbeskidzie Bielsko Biala win (56%). Probabilities: Podbeskidzie Bielsko Biala 56%, draw 23%, Lechia Gdansk 21%.

How many goals are expected in Podbeskidzie Bielsko Biala vs Lechia Gdansk?

The model expects 3.22 goals (Podbeskidzie Bielsko Biala 2.03 · Lechia Gdansk 1.19), with a 51% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Podbeskidzie Bielsko Biala vs Lechia Gdansk?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.