Football · Poland I Liga · 15/08, 15:30
Prediction: MKP Pogon Siedlce vs Polonia Warsaw
Team pages: MKP Pogon Siedlce · Polonia Warsaw
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.93Total
MKP Pogon Siedlce1.42
Polonia Warsaw1.51
1X2
MKP Pogon Siedlce
Draw
Polonia Warsaw
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 56%
Both teams to score 56%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
MKP Pogon Siedlce
1-3-6 (W-D-L)
Polonia Warsaw
4-1-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
MKP Pogon Siedlce
1–1–4
Polonia Warsaw
(6 last)
- Polonia Warsaw2-0MKP Pogon Siedlce
- MKP Pogon Siedlce1-1Polonia Warsaw
- Polonia Warsaw2-1MKP Pogon Siedlce
- MKP Pogon Siedlce2-4Polonia Warsaw
- MKP Pogon Siedlce2-3Polonia Warsaw
- Polonia Warsaw0-2MKP Pogon Siedlce
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Polonia Warsaw (rating 1430 vs 1498).
- H2H favours Polonia Warsaw: 4-1-1.
- Cards-heavy: 6.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| MKP Pogon Siedlce | Polonia Warsaw | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 2.2 | 1.3 / 1.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.6 | 0.3 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/40/20% | 10/30/60% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.4 / 3.1 | 3.6 / 6.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.6 / 0 | 3.6 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · MKP Pogon Siedlce 1–1–4 Polonia Warsaw
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29/11/25 Poland I Liga | Polonia Warsaw | 2-0 HT 1-0 | MKP Pogon Siedlce |
| 20/07/25 Poland I Liga | MKP Pogon Siedlce | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Polonia Warsaw |
| 09/04/25 Poland I Liga | Polonia Warsaw | 2-1 HT 2-0 | MKP Pogon Siedlce |
| 22/09/24 Poland I Liga | MKP Pogon Siedlce | 2-4 HT 0-1 | Polonia Warsaw |
| 06/07/24 Europe Friendlies | MKP Pogon Siedlce | 2-3 HT 1-2 | Polonia Warsaw |
| 27/01/24 Europe Friendlies | Polonia Warsaw | 0-2 HT 0-0 | MKP Pogon Siedlce |
Standings · Poland I Liga
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 9 |
| 2 | Polonia Warsaw | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 7 |
| 3 | Arka Gdynia | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 6 |
| 4 | Termalica BB Nieciecza | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 6 |
| 5 | Stal Mielec | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 5 | 5 |
| 6 | LKS Lodz | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 4 |
| 6 | Miedz Legnica | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 4 |
| 8 | Polonia Bytom | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 4 |
| 9 | Chrobry Glogow | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 3 |
| 10 | Warta Poznan | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 3 |
| 11 | Podbeskidzie Bielsko Biala | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 3 |
| 12 | Puszcza Niepolomice | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| 13 | Odra Opole | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 3 |
| 14 | MKP Pogon Siedlce | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 2 |
| 15 | Ruch Chorzow | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 |
| 16 | Lechia Gdansk | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 1 |
| 17 | Stal Rzeszow | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 1 |
| 18 | Unia Skierniewice | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
Common opponents 2 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | MKP Pogon Siedlce | Polonia Warsaw |
|---|---|---|
| Unia Skierniewice | 0-3 L | 3-1 W |
| Wisla Krakow | 0-2 L | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 0 W 0 D 2 L | 1 W 0 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Polonia Warsaw (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
MKP Pogon Siedlce
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/08 | Polonia Bytom Poland I Liga |
1-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 01/08 | Termalica BB Nieciecza Poland I Liga |
1-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 25/07 | LKS Lodz Poland I Liga |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 0 | D |
| 18/07 | Radomiak Radom Europe Friendlies |
1-1 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 11/07 | Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki Europe Friendlies |
2-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 1 | D |
| 04/07 | Jagiellonia Bialystok Europe Friendlies |
1-2 | 1-4 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 27/06 | Unia Skierniewice Club Friendly List |
0-0 | 0-3 | – | – | L |
| 24/05 | Wisla Krakow Poland I Liga |
0-1 | 0-2 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 15/05 | Stal Mielec Poland I Liga |
1-1 | 1-3 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 10/05 | Stal Rzeszow Poland I Liga |
0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 4 | L |
Polonia Warsaw
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/08 | Ruch Chorzow Poland I Liga |
0-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 2 | D |
| 01/08 | Unia Skierniewice Poland I Liga |
0-1 | 3-1 | 9 | 5 | W |
| 26/07 | Puszcza Niepolomice Poland I Liga |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 15/07 | FC Trinity Zlin Europe Friendlies |
0-1 | 0-2 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 04/07 | Wisla Plock Club Friendly List |
0-1 | 0-3 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 27/06 | Znicz Pruszków Europe Friendlies |
1-1 | 2-3 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 28/05 | Wieczysta Krakow Poland I Liga |
1-2 | 2-3 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 24/05 | Odra Opole Poland I Liga |
0-1 | 2-1 | 10 | 6 | W |
| 15/05 | Wisla Krakow Poland I Liga |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 1 | L |
| 10/05 | Gornik Leczna Poland I Liga |
1-0 | 2-1 | 8 | 7 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in MKP Pogon Siedlce vs Polonia Warsaw?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Polonia Warsaw win (38%). Probabilities: MKP Pogon Siedlce 35%, draw 27%, Polonia Warsaw 38%.
How many goals are expected in MKP Pogon Siedlce vs Polonia Warsaw?
The model expects 2.93 goals (MKP Pogon Siedlce 1.42 · Polonia Warsaw 1.51), with a 51% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in MKP Pogon Siedlce vs Polonia Warsaw?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.