Football · Poland I Liga · 17/08, 19:00
Prediction: Arka Gdynia vs Puszcza Niepolomice
Team pages: Arka Gdynia · Puszcza Niepolomice
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.57Total
Arka Gdynia1.64
Puszcza Niepolomice0.93
1X2
Arka Gdynia
Draw
Puszcza Niepolomice
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 50%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Arka Gdynia
4-1-5 (W-D-L)
Puszcza Niepolomice
4-0-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Arka Gdynia
3–1–2
Puszcza Niepolomice
(6 last)
- Arka Gdynia1-1Puszcza Niepolomice
- Puszcza Niepolomice2-0Arka Gdynia
- Puszcza Niepolomice2-3Arka Gdynia
- Arka Gdynia2-0Puszcza Niepolomice
- Puszcza Niepolomice4-0Arka Gdynia
- Puszcza Niepolomice2-5Arka Gdynia
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Arka Gdynia 1495 · Puszcza Niepolomice 1497
| Arka Gdynia | Draw | Puszcza Niepolomice | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 53% | 27% | 20% |
| Market | 53% | 26% | 21% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.57 goals · Bet365 line 2.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Arka Gdynia: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 6.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Arka Gdynia | Puszcza Niepolomice | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 1.4 | 1.3 / 1.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 1 | 0.4 / 1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/20/40% | 20/30/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.6 / 3.1 | 2 / 3.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.1 / 0.1 | 3 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Arka Gdynia 3–1–2 Puszcza Niepolomice
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30/04/23 Poland I Liga | Arka Gdynia | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Puszcza Niepolomice |
| 02/10/22 Poland I Liga | Puszcza Niepolomice | 2-0 HT 2-0 | Arka Gdynia |
| 10/04/22 Poland I Liga | Puszcza Niepolomice | 2-3 HT 1-1 | Arka Gdynia |
| 25/09/21 Poland I Liga | Arka Gdynia | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Puszcza Niepolomice |
| 07/03/21 Poland I Liga | Puszcza Niepolomice | 4-0 HT 0-0 | Arka Gdynia |
| 02/03/21 Poland Cup | Puszcza Niepolomice | 2-5 HT 1-1 | Arka Gdynia |
Standings · Poland I Liga
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 10 |
| 2 | Chrobry Glogow | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 7 |
| 3 | Polonia Warsaw | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 7 |
| 4 | Arka Gdynia | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 6 |
| 5 | Termalica BB Nieciecza | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 6 |
| 6 | Warta Poznan | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 8 | 6 |
| 7 | Odra Opole | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 6 |
| 8 | Stal Mielec | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 5 | 5 |
| 9 | MKP Pogon Siedlce | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| 10 | Miedz Legnica | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 4 |
| 11 | Podbeskidzie Bielsko Biala | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 4 |
| 11 | Polonia Bytom | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 4 |
| 13 | LKS Lodz | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| 14 | Ruch Chorzow | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 4 |
| 15 | Puszcza Niepolomice | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| 16 | Unia Skierniewice | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 3 |
| 17 | Stal Rzeszow | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 2 |
| 18 | Lechia Gdansk | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 1 |
Common opponents 2 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Arka Gdynia | Puszcza Niepolomice |
|---|---|---|
| Odra Opole | 1-0 W | 3-1 W |
| Gornik Zabrze | 0-0 D | 0-3 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 0 L | 1 W 0 D 1 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Arka Gdynia
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/08 | Unia Skierniewice Poland I Liga |
0-2 | 0-2 | 5 | 8 | L |
| 01/08 | Stal Rzeszow Poland I Liga |
1-0 | 4-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 24/07 | Odra Opole Poland I Liga |
1-0 | 1-0 | 0 | 0 | W |
| 18/07 | KTS-K Luzino Europe Friendlies |
2-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 11/07 | Olimpia Grudziadz Europe Friendlies |
1-4 | 2-4 | 8 | 2 | L |
| 03/07 | Petrolul Ploiesti Europe Friendlies |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 28/06 | GKS Katowice Europe Friendlies |
0-2 | 0-2 | 0 | 3 | L |
| 23/05 | Rakow Czestochowa Poland Ekstraklasa |
0-1 | 0-3 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 18/05 | Termalica BB Nieciecza Poland Ekstraklasa |
1-1 | 2-3 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 13/05 | Gornik Zabrze Poland Ekstraklasa |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | D |
Puszcza Niepolomice
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08 | Odra Opole Poland I Liga |
2-1 | 3-1 | 8 | 5 | W |
| 02/08 | Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki Poland I Liga |
0-1 | 0-1 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 26/07 | Polonia Warsaw Poland I Liga |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 23/07 | JKS Jaroslaw Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 19/07 | Widzew Lodz Europe Friendlies |
0-1 | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 11/07 | Stal Mielec Europe Friendlies |
0-1 | 4-1 | 2 | 0 | W |
| 01/07 | Wisla Krakow Europe Friendlies |
0-3 | 0-4 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 27/06 | Star Starachowice Europe Friendlies |
1-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 24/06 | Gornik Zabrze Europe Friendlies |
0-2 | 0-3 | – | – | L |
| 24/05 | Miedz Legnica Poland I Liga |
1-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 4 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Arka Gdynia vs Puszcza Niepolomice?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Arka Gdynia win (53%). Probabilities: Arka Gdynia 53%, draw 26%, Puszcza Niepolomice 21%.
How many goals are expected in Arka Gdynia vs Puszcza Niepolomice?
The model expects 2.57 goals (Arka Gdynia 1.64 · Puszcza Niepolomice 0.93), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Arka Gdynia vs Puszcza Niepolomice?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.