Football · Poland I Liga · 30/10, 20:30

Prediction: Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki vs Stal Mielec

Team pages: Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki · Stal Mielec

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.11Total

Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki1.85

Stal Mielec1.26

1X2

50% 25% 25%

Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki Draw Stal Mielec

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WWDDDWLWWL

Stal Mielec 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

DWLLDLLWLD

Head-to-head

Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki 1–1 Stal Mielec (2 last)

Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki1-2Stal Mielec
Stal Mielec1-2Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki	Stal Mielec
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 0.9	1.1 / 2.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.3	0.6 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4.8	2.1 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0.2	4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 31.90

Under 31.88

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:46

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	2.15 → 2.15	Pinn 2.15
X	3.63 → 3.63	Pinn 3.63
2	3.07 → 3.07	Pinn 3.07

See the full journey (1)

Pinnacle margin 6.6%

Time*	1	X	2
15:46 +60’	2.15	3.63	3.07

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki 1–0–1 Stal Mielec

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/04/26 Poland I Liga	Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki	1-2 HT 0-0	Stal Mielec
19/09/25 Poland I Liga	Stal Mielec	1-2 HT 1-1	Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki

Standings · Poland I Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki	11	6	3	2	19	9	21
2	Polonia Warsaw	12	6	3	3	19	14	21
3	Termalica BB Nieciecza	12	6	2	4	19	17	20
4	Lechia Gdansk	12	6	1	5	22	19	19
5	Miedz Legnica	12	5	3	4	18	11	18
6	Warta Poznan	11	6	0	5	19	15	18
7	LKS Lodz	11	5	3	3	14	11	18
7	Ruch Chorzow	11	5	3	3	14	11	18
9	Polonia Bytom	12	4	6	2	20	20	18
10	Stal Rzeszow	11	5	2	4	15	20	17
11	Arka Gdynia	12	4	2	6	16	16	14
12	Chrobry Glogow	12	3	4	5	13	15	13
13	Stal Mielec	12	3	4	5	16	27	13
14	MKP Pogon Siedlce	11	3	3	5	13	15	12
15	Puszcza Niepolomice	12	4	0	8	13	17	12
16	Odra Opole	11	3	3	5	8	12	12
17	Podbeskidzie Bielsko Biala	11	1	8	2	13	15	11
18	Unia Skierniewice	12	3	2	7	13	20	11

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki	Stal Mielec
Chrobry Glogow	4-0 W	0-0 D
LKS Lodz	2-0 W	0-4 L
Warta Poznan	1-0 W	2-1 W
Termalica BB Nieciecza	2-2 D	1-2 L
Polonia Bytom	2-2 D	5-2 W
Stal Rzeszow	1-1 D	1-1 D
Miedz Legnica	1-0 W	0-3 L
Record vs common	4 W 3 D 0 L	2 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki

WWDDDWLWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Polonia Warsaw Poland I Liga	0-0	0-1	4	6	L
10/10	Chrobry Glogow Poland I Liga	3-0	4-0	1	1	W
19/09	LKS Lodz Poland I Liga	1-0	2-0	8	5	W
13/09	Unia Skierniewice Poland I Liga	1-0	2-3	3	6	L
04/09	Warta Poznan Poland I Liga	0-0	1-0	6	6	W
28/08	Termalica BB Nieciecza Poland I Liga	1-1	2-2	7	4	D
22/08	Polonia Bytom Poland I Liga	1-2	2-2	6	5	D
14/08	Stal Rzeszow Poland I Liga	0-0	1-1	7	4	D
08/08	Miedz Legnica Poland I Liga	1-0	1-0	5	2	W
02/08	Puszcza Niepolomice Poland I Liga	1-0	1-0	1	5	W

Stal Mielec

DWLLDLLWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Chrobry Glogow Poland I Liga	0-0	0-0	0	6	D
17/10	Miedz Legnica Poland I Liga	0-1	0-3	8	5	L
11/10	Warta Poznan Poland I Liga	2-0	2-1	7	0	W
19/09	Lechia Gdansk Poland I Liga	1-2	1-7	8	5	L
14/09	Termalica BB Nieciecza Poland I Liga	1-1	1-2	8	7	L
05/09	Odra Opole Poland I Liga	0-1	1-1	4	3	D
29/08	MKP Pogon Siedlce Poland I Liga	0-2	0-2	5	3	L
23/08	LKS Lodz Poland I Liga	0-1	0-4	2	4	L
16/08	Polonia Bytom Poland I Liga	2-1	5-2	4	3	W
08/08	Stal Rzeszow Poland I Liga	0-0	1-1	6	6	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki vs Stal Mielec?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki win (50%). Probabilities: Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki 50%, draw 25%, Stal Mielec 25%.

How many goals are expected in Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki vs Stal Mielec?

The model expects 3.11 goals (Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki 1.85 · Stal Mielec 1.26), with a 51% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki vs Stal Mielec?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.