Football · Poland I Liga · 07/11, 15:30

Prediction: Arka Gdynia vs Podbeskidzie Bielsko Biala

Team pages: Arka Gdynia · Podbeskidzie Bielsko Biala

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.72Total

Arka Gdynia1.53

Podbeskidzie Bielsko Biala1.19

1X2

44% 27% 29%

Arka Gdynia Draw Podbeskidzie Bielsko Biala

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Arka Gdynia 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LWLDDLLLLW

Podbeskidzie Bielsko Biala 2-6-2 (W-D-L)

DDLDDDWLWD

Head-to-head

Arka Gdynia 3–3–0 Podbeskidzie Bielsko Biala (6 last)

Podbeskidzie Bielsko Biala0-0Arka Gdynia
Arka Gdynia1-0Podbeskidzie Bielsko Biala
Arka Gdynia2-2Podbeskidzie Bielsko Biala
Podbeskidzie Bielsko Biala0-1Arka Gdynia
Podbeskidzie Bielsko Biala1-1Arka Gdynia
Arka Gdynia1-0Podbeskidzie Bielsko Biala

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Arka Gdynia 1477 · Podbeskidzie Bielsko Biala 1492

	Arka Gdynia	Draw	Podbeskidzie Bielsko Biala
Our model	44%	28%	28%
Market	45%	26%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 2.72 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Arka Gdynia: 3-3-0.
Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Arka Gdynia	Podbeskidzie Bielsko Biala
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.6	1 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.7	0.2 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	10/40/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 4.4	2.4 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0.2	4.6 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.40

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.80

2 (+0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.90

Under 2.751.90

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
13:09 +8’	2.00	3.40	3.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Arka Gdynia 3–3–0 Podbeskidzie Bielsko Biala

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/05/24 Poland I Liga	Podbeskidzie Bielsko Biala	0-0 HT 0-0	Arka Gdynia
04/11/23 Poland I Liga	Arka Gdynia	1-0 HT 0-0	Podbeskidzie Bielsko Biala
12/11/22 Poland I Liga	Arka Gdynia	2-2 HT 2-0	Podbeskidzie Bielsko Biala
17/07/22 Poland I Liga	Podbeskidzie Bielsko Biala	0-1 HT 0-0	Arka Gdynia
13/05/22 Poland I Liga	Podbeskidzie Bielsko Biala	1-1 HT 0-1	Arka Gdynia
05/11/21 Poland I Liga	Arka Gdynia	1-0 HT 0-0	Podbeskidzie Bielsko Biala

Standings · Poland I Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Polonia Warsaw	13	6	4	3	20	15	22
2	Lechia Gdansk	13	7	1	5	25	21	22
3	LKS Lodz	13	6	4	3	16	12	22
4	Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki	13	6	3	4	19	12	21
5	Ruch Chorzow	12	6	3	3	16	11	21
6	Polonia Bytom	13	5	6	2	23	20	21
7	Termalica BB Nieciecza	13	6	3	4	20	18	21
8	Miedz Legnica	13	5	4	4	19	12	19
9	Warta Poznan	13	6	1	6	20	17	19
10	Stal Rzeszow	13	5	3	5	18	24	18
11	Stal Mielec	13	4	4	5	17	27	16
12	Podbeskidzie Bielsko Biala	13	2	9	2	16	17	15
13	MKP Pogon Siedlce	12	4	3	5	14	15	15
14	Arka Gdynia	12	4	2	6	16	16	14
15	Chrobry Glogow	12	3	4	5	13	15	13
16	Puszcza Niepolomice	13	4	1	8	15	19	13
17	Odra Opole	13	3	3	7	8	16	12
18	Unia Skierniewice	13	3	2	8	15	23	11

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Arka Gdynia	Podbeskidzie Bielsko Biala
MKP Pogon Siedlce	1-2 L	1-0 W
Warta Poznan	0-3 L	1-1 D
LKS Lodz	1-1 D	0-1 L
Polonia Bytom	1-1 D	0-0 D
Puszcza Niepolomice	3-0 W	0-2 L
Unia Skierniewice	0-2 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 3 L	1 W 3 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Podbeskidzie Bielsko Biala (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Arka Gdynia

LWLDDLLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Termalica BB Nieciecza Poland I Liga	3-0	3-1	4	5	W
18/10	Lechia Gdansk Poland I Liga	0-1	1-2	3	3	L
10/10	Polonia Warsaw Poland I Liga	1-1	1-2	5	0	L
20/09	MKP Pogon Siedlce Poland I Liga	1-1	1-2	7	3	L
12/09	Warta Poznan Poland I Liga	0-1	0-3	2	3	L
06/09	LKS Lodz Poland I Liga	0-0	1-1	4	2	D
30/08	Polonia Bytom Poland I Liga	1-0	1-1	0	6	D
23/08	Miedz Legnica Poland I Liga	0-1	0-2	8	3	L
17/08	Puszcza Niepolomice Poland I Liga	3-0	3-0	6	4	W
10/08	Unia Skierniewice Poland I Liga	0-2	0-2	5	8	L

Podbeskidzie Bielsko Biala

DDLDDDWLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Warta Poznan Poland I Liga	0-1	1-1	4	8	D
25/10	Stal Rzeszow Poland I Liga	0-1	2-1	10	3	W
18/10	LKS Lodz Poland I Liga	0-0	0-1	3	6	L
09/10	MKP Pogon Siedlce Poland I Liga	1-0	1-0	4	4	W
20/09	Unia Skierniewice Poland I Liga	0-0	1-1	6	4	D
12/09	Ruch Chorzow Poland I Liga	1-1	3-3	4	5	D
06/09	Polonia Bytom Poland I Liga	0-0	0-0	6	5	D
29/08	Puszcza Niepolomice Poland I Liga	0-1	0-2	8	4	L
22/08	Odra Opole Poland I Liga	0-1	1-1	3	5	D
15/08	Chrobry Glogow Poland I Liga	0-1	1-1	6	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Arka Gdynia vs Podbeskidzie Bielsko Biala?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Arka Gdynia win (44%). Probabilities: Arka Gdynia 44%, draw 27%, Podbeskidzie Bielsko Biala 29%.

How many goals are expected in Arka Gdynia vs Podbeskidzie Bielsko Biala?

The model expects 2.72 goals (Arka Gdynia 1.53 · Podbeskidzie Bielsko Biala 1.19), with a 53% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Arka Gdynia vs Podbeskidzie Bielsko Biala?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.