Football · Uzbekistan 1st Division · 15/08, 16:00

Prediction: Shurtan vs Kattaqorgon

Team pages: Shurtan · Kattaqorgon

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.5Total

Shurtan1.54

Kattaqorgon0.96

1X2

51% 26% 23%

Shurtan Draw Kattaqorgon

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Shurtan 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WLLWWLLWWD

Kattaqorgon 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

DLLDWLWWWW

Head-to-head

Shurtan 1–0 Kattaqorgon (1 last)

Kattaqorgon0-2Shurtan

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Shurtan 1520 · Kattaqorgon 1520

	Shurtan	Draw	Kattaqorgon
Our model	50%	28%	22%
Market	52%	24%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 2.5 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 5.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Shurtan	Kattaqorgon
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.6	1.2 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.3	0.5 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	33/33/33%	25/50/25%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 5	0.8 / 2.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.3 / 0.2	3 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.73

X3.70

23.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)2.00

2 (+0.75)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.752.00

Under 2.751.80

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 20:00

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.73 → 1.73	Bet365 1.73
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
19:58 +3’	1.73	3.70	3.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Shurtan 1–0–0 Kattaqorgon

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/04/26 Uzbekistan 1st Division	Kattaqorgon	0-2 HT 0-2	Shurtan

Standings · Uzbekistan 1st Division

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Orol Nukus	14	11	3	0	30	8	36
2	Shurtan	14	9	3	2	22	14	30
3	Kattaqorgon	14	9	3	2	19	8	30
4	Fardu Ferghana	14	7	4	3	26	22	25
5	FC Lochin	14	7	4	3	22	15	25
6	Gazalkent	14	7	3	4	27	17	24
7	Metallurg Bekabad	14	6	4	4	31	13	22
8	Olympic Mobiuz	14	6	4	4	27	15	22
9	FC Yaypan Fergana	14	4	3	7	15	24	15
10	Jayxun	14	4	2	8	16	22	14
11	Respublika FA	14	3	4	7	14	21	13
12	BuxDu	14	3	1	10	13	33	10
13	Pakhtakor Tashkent II	14	1	1	12	8	36	4
14	PFC Terdu	14	1	1	12	10	32	4

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Shurtan	Kattaqorgon
Olympic Mobiuz	0-0 D	0-0 D
Metallurg Bekabad	1-0 W	1-1 D
Jayxun	2-1 W	2-1 W
Pakhtakor Tashkent II	2-0 W	2-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 0 L	2 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Shurtan (1 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Shurtan

WLLWWLLWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/08	Olympic Mobiuz Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-0	0-0	15	2	D
05/08	BuxDu Uzbekistan 1st Division	1-0	4-2	5	3	W
30/07	Respublika FA Uzbekistan 1st Division	2-0	2-1	2	0	W
24/07	FK Orol Nukus Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-1	1-3	2	8	L
10/06	Gazalkent Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-0	0-2	5	3	L
04/06	Metallurg Bekabad Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-0	1-0	4	2	W
30/05	Jayxun Uzbekistan 1st Division	–	2-1	–	–	W
26/05	Nasaf Qarshi Uzbekistan Cup	0-1	0-4	3	3	L
15/05	FK Andijan Uzbekistan Cup	0-1	1-3	6	0	L
05/05	Pakhtakor Tashkent II Uzbekistan 1st Division	1-0	2-0	3	2	W

Kattaqorgon

DLLDWLWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/08	Jayxun Uzbekistan 1st Division	1-1	2-1	2	5	W
04/08	Pakhtakor Tashkent II Uzbekistan 1st Division	–	2-0	–	–	W
30/07	PFC Terdu Uzbekistan 1st Division	–	2-0	–	–	W
25/07	FC Yaypan Fergana Uzbekistan 1st Division	1-0	2-1	4	4	W
09/06	FC Lochin Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-1	0-2	3	2	L
04/06	Fardu Ferghana Uzbekistan 1st Division	1-0	3-0	5	3	W
31/05	Metallurg Bekabad Uzbekistan 1st Division	1-1	1-1	1	2	D
27/05	Pakhtakor Tashkent Uzbekistan Cup	0-1	0-3	1	0	L
18/05	FC Yaypan Fergana Uzbekistan Cup	0-0	0-1	1	2	L
04/05	Olympic Mobiuz Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-0	0-0	6	6	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Shurtan vs Kattaqorgon?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Shurtan win (51%). Probabilities: Shurtan 51%, draw 26%, Kattaqorgon 23%.

How many goals are expected in Shurtan vs Kattaqorgon?

The model expects 2.5 goals (Shurtan 1.54 · Kattaqorgon 0.96), with a 57% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Shurtan vs Kattaqorgon?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.