Football · Uzbekistan 1st Division · 15/08, 16:00

Prediction: Pakhtakor Tashkent II vs FC Lochin

Team pages: Pakhtakor Tashkent II · FC Lochin

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.91Total

Pakhtakor Tashkent II0.83

FC Lochin2.08

1X2

14% 20% 66%

Pakhtakor Tashkent II Draw FC Lochin

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

0-2

Recent form · 10 last

Pakhtakor Tashkent II 0-0-10 (W-D-L)

LLLLLLLLLL

FC Lochin 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DDLWWWLLDW

Head-to-head

Pakhtakor Tashkent II 0–1–0 FC Lochin (1 last)

FC Lochin1-1Pakhtakor Tashkent II

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Pakhtakor Tashkent II 1372 · FC Lochin 1509

	Pakhtakor Tashkent II	Draw	FC Lochin
Our model	13%	22%	65%
Market	15%	18%	67%

Estimated total (ours) 2.91 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Lochin (rating 1372 vs 1509).
Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Pakhtakor Tashkent II	FC Lochin
Goals for / against (FT)	0.3 / 2.7	1.4 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 1	0.4 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/50/50%	25/38/38%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 3.8	2.1 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0	4.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

16.00

X5.00

21.33

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.5)1.95

2 (-1.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.85

Under 3.251.95

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 02:52

	Bet365	Best now
1	6.50 → 6.00▼	Pinn 7.67 ★
X	5.00 → 5.00	Pinn 5.32
2	1.30 → 1.33▲	Bet365 1.33

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.7% Pinnacle margin 13.2%

Time*	1	X	2
00:45 +2’	6.50	5.00	1.30
02:48 +5’	6.00▼	5.00	1.33▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
19:31 +6’	7.67	5.32	1.23

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Pakhtakor Tashkent II 0–1–0 FC Lochin

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
11/04/26 Uzbekistan 1st Division	FC Lochin	1-1	Pakhtakor Tashkent II

Standings · Uzbekistan 1st Division

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Orol Nukus	14	11	3	0	30	8	36
2	Shurtan	14	9	3	2	22	14	30
3	Kattaqorgon	14	9	3	2	19	8	30
4	Fardu Ferghana	14	7	4	3	26	22	25
5	FC Lochin	14	7	4	3	22	15	25
6	Gazalkent	14	7	3	4	27	17	24
7	Metallurg Bekabad	14	6	4	4	31	13	22
8	Olympic Mobiuz	14	6	4	4	27	15	22
9	FC Yaypan Fergana	14	4	3	7	15	24	15
10	Jayxun	14	4	2	8	16	22	14
11	Respublika FA	14	3	4	7	14	21	13
12	BuxDu	14	3	1	10	13	33	10
13	Pakhtakor Tashkent II	14	1	1	12	8	36	4
14	PFC Terdu	14	1	1	12	10	32	4

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Pakhtakor Tashkent II	FC Lochin
Fardu Ferghana	1-5 L	1-2 L
Kattaqorgon	0-2 L	2-0 W
Olympic Mobiuz	1-4 L	3-2 W
BuxDu	0-2 L	4-0 W
Respublika FA	0-3 L	0-0 D
FK Orol Nukus	0-3 L	2-2 D
Gazalkent	1-2 L	0-1 L
FC Yaypan Fergana	0-1 L	0-0 D
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 8 L	3 W 3 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: FC Lochin (7 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Pakhtakor Tashkent II

LLLLLLLLLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/08	Fardu Ferghana Uzbekistan 1st Division	1-1	1-5	4	4	L
04/08	Kattaqorgon Uzbekistan 1st Division	–	0-2	–	–	L
30/07	Olympic Mobiuz Uzbekistan 1st Division	1-1	1-4	5	3	L
24/07	BuxDu Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-1	0-2	2	2	L
08/06	Respublika FA Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-0	0-3	4	3	L
03/06	FK Orol Nukus Uzbekistan 1st Division	–	0-3	–	–	L
30/05	Gazalkent Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-1	1-2	5	5	L
22/05	FC Yaypan Fergana Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-0	0-1	3	3	L
05/05	Shurtan Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-1	0-2	2	2	L
01/05	Jayxun Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-3	0-3	5	4	L

FC Lochin

DDLWWWLLDW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/08	PFC Terdu Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-1	2-1	6	5	W
05/08	FC Yaypan Fergana Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-0	0-0	4	3	D
31/07	Metallurg Bekabad Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-1	0-5	2	3	L
25/07	Fardu Ferghana Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-1	1-2	7	6	L
18/07	Olympic Mobiuz Uzbekistan 1st Division	2-1	3-2	4	4	W
09/06	Kattaqorgon Uzbekistan 1st Division	1-0	2-0	3	2	W
31/05	BuxDu Uzbekistan 1st Division	–	4-0	–	–	W
15/05	Gazalkent Uzbekistan Cup	0-0	0-1	5	6	L
05/05	Respublika FA Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-0	0-0	8	5	D
01/05	FK Orol Nukus Uzbekistan 1st Division	–	2-2	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Pakhtakor Tashkent II vs FC Lochin?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FC Lochin win (66%). Probabilities: Pakhtakor Tashkent II 14%, draw 20%, FC Lochin 66%.

How many goals are expected in Pakhtakor Tashkent II vs FC Lochin?

The model expects 2.91 goals (Pakhtakor Tashkent II 0.83 · FC Lochin 2.08), with a 55% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Pakhtakor Tashkent II vs FC Lochin?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.