Football · Finland Kolmonen · 30/07, 18:00

Prediction: VPV Pallo-Veikot vs LBK

Team pages: VPV Pallo-Veikot · LBK

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.81Total

VPV Pallo-Veikot2.41

LBK1.4

1X2

59% 20% 21%

VPV Pallo-Veikot Draw LBK

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

2-1

Recent form · 10 last

VPV Pallo-Veikot 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LLLWDLDWWL

LBK 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

WLLLLDWLLW

Head-to-head

VPV Pallo-Veikot 2–1 LBK (3 last)

LBK1-3VPV Pallo-Veikot
VPV Pallo-Veikot3-2LBK
LBK3-1VPV Pallo-Veikot

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · VPV Pallo-Veikot 1498 · LBK 1445

	VPV Pallo-Veikot	Draw	LBK
Our model	59%	20%	21%
Market	60%	19%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 3.81 goals · Bet365 line 4 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 76%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours VPV Pallo-Veikot (rating 1498 vs 1445).
H2H favours VPV Pallo-Veikot: 2-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	VPV Pallo-Veikot	LBK
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.8	1.4 / 2.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.7	1.2 / 1.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	22/56/22%	33/17/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 3.2	1.3 / 3.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0.1	4.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.50

X4.75

24.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)2.00

2 (+1.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 41.95

Under 41.85

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 3.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 03:05

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.50 → 1.50	Bet365 1.50
X	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75
2	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
03:00 +5’	1.50	4.75	4.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · VPV Pallo-Veikot 2–0–1 LBK

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
07/05/26 Finland Kolmonen	LBK	1-3 HT 1-2	VPV Pallo-Veikot
07/08/25 Finland Kolmonen	VPV Pallo-Veikot	3-2 HT 2-1	LBK
15/05/25 Finland Kolmonen	LBK	3-1 HT 1-0	VPV Pallo-Veikot

Standings · Finland Kolmonen · Kolmonen 2026, Western, Group 3

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	VIFK	13	11	1	1	47	9	34
2	FC Kiisto	13	8	3	2	34	15	27
3	FC Ylivieska	13	7	1	5	38	29	22
4	SIF	13	6	3	4	26	18	21
5	Virkia	12	6	2	4	37	16	20
6	SJK-j	13	5	3	5	30	21	18
7	VPV Pallo-Veikot	11	5	2	4	19	16	17
8	Nykarleby IK	13	4	4	5	17	30	16
9	Sporting Kristina	11	4	2	5	15	16	14
10	KPV Akatemia	12	3	1	8	29	39	10
11	LBK	13	3	1	9	16	34	10
12	Sääripotku	11	0	1	10	4	69	1

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	VPV Pallo-Veikot	LBK
KPV Akatemia	1-2 L	2-1 W
Virkia	1-0 W	0-3 L
SJK-j	2-0 W	4-2 W
SIF	1-1 D	0-2 L
FC Ylivieska	0-4 L	1-4 L
Nykarleby IK	1-1 D	5-0 W
Sääripotku	6-2 W	1-1 D
VIFK	1-2 L	0-5 L
FC Kiisto	0-2 L	0-5 L
Sporting Kristina	1-4 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 5 L	3 W 1 D 6 L

Better against common opponents: VPV Pallo-Veikot (5 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

VPV Pallo-Veikot

LLLWDLDWWL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/07	KPV Akatemia Finland Kolmonen	1-1	1-2	7	4	L
16/07	Virkia Finland Kolmonen	1-0	1-0	6	4	W
02/07	SJK-j Finland Kolmonen	2-0	2-0	3	4	W
25/06	SIF Finland Kolmonen	1-1	1-1	4	4	D
17/06	FC Ylivieska Finland Kolmonen	0-1	0-4	0	3	L
11/06	Nykarleby IK Finland Kolmonen	0-1	1-1	2	3	D
04/06	Sääripotku Finland Kolmonen	–	6-2	–	–	W
27/05	VIFK Finland Kolmonen	1-1	1-2	1	2	L
19/05	FC Kiisto Finland Kolmonen	0-0	0-2	2	0	L
14/05	Sporting Kristina Finland Kolmonen	1-1	1-4	4	4	L

LBK

WLLLLDWLLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/07	SJK-j Finland Kolmonen	2-0	4-2	1	3	W
16/07	SIF Finland Kolmonen	0-2	0-2	4	5	L
02/07	FC Ylivieska Finland Kolmonen	1-3	1-4	5	5	L
25/06	Nykarleby IK Finland Kolmonen	4-0	5-0	3	3	W
18/06	Sääripotku Finland Kolmonen	–	1-1	–	–	D
11/06	VIFK Finland Kolmonen	–	0-5	–	–	L
04/06	FC Kiisto Finland Kolmonen	0-0	0-5	2	5	L
27/05	Sporting Kristina Finland Kolmonen	0-2	1-2	7	5	L
23/05	Virkia Finland Kolmonen	–	0-3	–	–	L
13/05	KPV Akatemia Finland Kolmonen	–	2-1	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in VPV Pallo-Veikot vs LBK?

According to our model, the most likely result is a VPV Pallo-Veikot win (59%). Probabilities: VPV Pallo-Veikot 59%, draw 20%, LBK 21%.

How many goals are expected in VPV Pallo-Veikot vs LBK?

The model expects 3.81 goals (VPV Pallo-Veikot 2.41 · LBK 1.4), with a 55% chance of under 4 goals.

Will both teams score in VPV Pallo-Veikot vs LBK?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.