Football · Scotland League Two · 15/08, 16:00
Prediction: Dumbarton vs FC Edinburgh
Team pages: Dumbarton · FC Edinburgh
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.4Total
Dumbarton1.95
FC Edinburgh1.45
1X2
Dumbarton
Draw
FC Edinburgh
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 56%
Both teams to score 58%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Dumbarton
2-0-8 (W-D-L)
FC Edinburgh
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Dumbarton
0–1–5
FC Edinburgh
(6 last)
- FC Edinburgh5-0Dumbarton
- Dumbarton1-2FC Edinburgh
- FC Edinburgh4-3Dumbarton
- Dumbarton1-2FC Edinburgh
- Dumbarton1-1FC Edinburgh
- FC Edinburgh4-1Dumbarton
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Dumbarton 1405 · FC Edinburgh 1499
| Dumbarton | Draw | FC Edinburgh | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 48% | 24% | 28% |
| Market | 47% | 26% | 26% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.4 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.6
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 69%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Edinburgh (rating 1405 vs 1499).
- H2H favours FC Edinburgh: 5-1-0.
- Cards-heavy: 6.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Dumbarton | FC Edinburgh | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1 / 2.8 | 1.2 / 2.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 1.7 | 0.9 / 1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/10/80% | 40/30/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.5 / 3.6 | 1 / 3.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.4 / 0 | 4 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Dumbarton 0–1–5 FC Edinburgh
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/05/26 Scotland League Two | FC Edinburgh | 5-0 HT 4-0 | Dumbarton |
| 31/01/26 Scotland League Two | Dumbarton | 1-2 HT 1-1 | FC Edinburgh |
| 06/12/25 Scotland League Two | FC Edinburgh | 4-3 HT 3-0 | Dumbarton |
| 30/08/25 Scotland League Two | Dumbarton | 1-2 HT 0-2 | FC Edinburgh |
| 07/05/22 Scotland League One Play-Offs | Dumbarton | 1-1 HT 0-0 | FC Edinburgh |
| 03/05/22 Scotland League One Play-Offs | FC Edinburgh | 4-1 HT 2-0 | Dumbarton |
Standings · Scotland League Two
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Elgin | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 4 |
| 2 | Spartans | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 4 |
| 3 | Forfar | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| 4 | Stirling | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
| 5 | Clyde | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 6 | Kelty Hearts | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| 7 | Annan Athletic | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
| 8 | Dumbarton | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 9 | Stranraer | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| 10 | FC Edinburgh | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 | -4 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Dumbarton
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08 | Clyde Scotland League Two |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 01/08 | Stirling Scotland League Two |
0-1 | 0-2 | 8 | 6 | L |
| 25/07 | Cove Rangers Scotland League Cup |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 18/07 | East Kilbride Scotland League Cup |
1-3 | 3-5 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 14/07 | Dunfermline Scotland League Cup |
0-2 | 1-4 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 11/07 | St Mirren Scotland League Cup |
0-2 | 0-4 | 0 | 0 | L |
| 30/06 | Ayr UK Friendlies |
0-2 | 0-3 | 6 | 0 | L |
| 20/06 | Linlithgow Rose Club Friendly List |
1-2 | 3-4 | – | – | L |
| 02/05 | FC Edinburgh Scotland League Two |
0-4 | 0-5 | – | – | L |
| 25/04 | East Kilbride Scotland League Two |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 4 | L |
FC Edinburgh
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08 | Spartans Scotland League Two |
1-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 8 | D |
| 01/08 | Elgin Scotland League Two |
0-3 | 0-5 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 21/07 | Stranraer Scotland League Cup |
2-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 18/07 | Ayr Scotland League Cup |
0-0 | 0-2 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 14/07 | Alloa Scotland League Cup |
2-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 11/07 | Falkirk Scotland League Cup |
0-4 | 0-5 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 30/06 | Raith UK Friendlies |
0-1 | 0-4 | 0 | 0 | L |
| 27/06 | Gala Fairydean Club Friendly List |
1-1 | 3-3 | – | – | D |
| 16/05 | Brora Rangers FC Scotland League Two Play-Offs |
2-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 5 | W |
| 09/05 | Brora Rangers FC Scotland League Two Play-Offs |
1-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 4 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Dumbarton vs FC Edinburgh?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Dumbarton win (48%). Probabilities: Dumbarton 48%, draw 25%, FC Edinburgh 27%.
How many goals are expected in Dumbarton vs FC Edinburgh?
The model expects 3.4 goals (Dumbarton 1.95 · FC Edinburgh 1.45), with a 54% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Dumbarton vs FC Edinburgh?
The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.