Prediction: Kelty Hearts vs Dumbarton
Team pages: Kelty Hearts · Dumbarton
- Dumbarton3-3Kelty Hearts
- Kelty Hearts0-6Dumbarton
- Dumbarton2-0Kelty Hearts
- Kelty Hearts2-0Dumbarton
- Dumbarton2-2Kelty Hearts
- Dumbarton1-3Kelty Hearts
| Kelty Hearts | Draw | Dumbarton | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 58% | 22% | 20% |
| Market | 57% | 24% | 19% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Kelty Hearts (rating 1458 vs 1414).
- Cards-heavy: 4.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Kelty Hearts | Dumbarton | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 2.5 | 1.1 / 2.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 1.2 | 0.3 / 1.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/20/50% | 10/10/80% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.6 / 3.6 | 1.3 / 4.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.6 / 0 | 2 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Kelty Hearts 2–2–2 Dumbarton
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23/09/25 Scotland League Challenge Cup | Dumbarton | 3-3 HT 3-3 | Kelty Hearts |
| 05/04/25 Scotland League One | Kelty Hearts | 0-6 HT 0-3 | Dumbarton |
| 28/12/24 Scotland League One | Dumbarton | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Kelty Hearts |
| 09/11/24 Scotland League One | Kelty Hearts | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Dumbarton |
| 31/08/24 Scotland League One | Dumbarton | 2-2 HT 1-1 | Kelty Hearts |
| 09/09/23 Scotland League Challenge Cup | Dumbarton | 1-3 HT 1-2 | Kelty Hearts |
Standings · Scotland League Two
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Elgin | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 2 | 7 |
| 2 | Forfar | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 7 |
| 3 | Clyde | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 6 |
| 4 | Spartans | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 4 |
| 5 | Annan Athletic | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 3 |
| 5 | Stirling | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 3 |
| 7 | Stranraer | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 3 |
| 8 | Kelty Hearts | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 3 |
| 9 | Dumbarton | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 3 |
| 10 | FC Edinburgh | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 7 | -1 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Kelty Hearts | Dumbarton |
|---|---|---|
| Stirling | 3-2 W | 0-2 L |
| Dunfermline | 0-3 L | 1-4 L |
| East Kilbride | 0-4 L | 3-5 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 0 D 2 L | 0 W 0 D 3 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Kelty Hearts
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | Elgin Scotland League Two |
0-1 | 1-4 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 11/08 | Motherwell B Scotland League Challenge Cup |
3-2 | 4-3 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 08/08 | Stirling Scotland League Two |
2-0 | 3-2 | 2 | 9 | W |
| 01/08 | Forfar Scotland League Two |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 25/07 | Aberdeen Scotland League Cup |
0-2 | 0-3 | 0 | 2 | L |
| 21/07 | Brora Rangers FC Scotland League Cup |
2-1 | 3-2 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 14/07 | Queen's Park Scotland League Cup |
0-0 | 0-2 | 5 | 0 | L |
| 11/07 | Queen of South Scotland League Cup |
1-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 1 | D |
| 04/07 | Dunfermline UK Friendlies |
0-1 | 0-3 | 4 | 0 | L |
| 27/06 | East Kilbride UK Friendlies |
0-3 | 0-4 | – | – | L |
Dumbarton
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | FC Edinburgh Scotland League Two |
0-2 | 0-3 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 11/08 | Airdrieonians Scotland League Challenge Cup |
0-1 | 1-3 | 6 | 0 | L |
| 08/08 | Clyde Scotland League Two |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 01/08 | Stirling Scotland League Two |
0-1 | 0-2 | 8 | 6 | L |
| 25/07 | Cove Rangers Scotland League Cup |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 18/07 | East Kilbride Scotland League Cup |
1-3 | 3-5 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 14/07 | Dunfermline Scotland League Cup |
0-2 | 1-4 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 11/07 | St Mirren Scotland League Cup |
0-2 | 0-4 | 0 | 0 | L |
| 30/06 | Ayr UK Friendlies |
0-2 | 0-3 | 6 | 0 | L |
| 20/06 | Linlithgow Rose Club Friendly List |
1-2 | 3-4 | – | – | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Kelty Hearts vs Dumbarton?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Kelty Hearts win (58%). Probabilities: Kelty Hearts 58%, draw 23%, Dumbarton 19%.
How many goals are expected in Kelty Hearts vs Dumbarton?
The model expects 3.35 goals (Kelty Hearts 2.15 · Dumbarton 1.2), with a 56% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Kelty Hearts vs Dumbarton?
The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.