Prediction: Dumbarton vs Elgin
- Elgin1-1Dumbarton
- Dumbarton2-2Elgin
- Elgin2-0Dumbarton
- Dumbarton1-1Elgin
- Dumbarton2-2Elgin
- Elgin0-1Dumbarton
| Dumbarton | Draw | Elgin | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 29% | 27% | 45% |
| Market | 29% | 25% | 45% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Elgin (rating 1382 vs 1487).
- Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Dumbarton | Elgin | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.5 / 2 | 2.1 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 1 | 1.2 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/30/50% | 50/30/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.8 / 4.3 | 2.1 / 3.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.8 / 0.1 | 4 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Dumbarton 1–4–1 Elgin
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/03/26 Scotland League Two | Elgin | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Dumbarton |
| 24/01/26 Scotland League Two | Dumbarton | 2-2 HT 0-0 | Elgin |
| 15/11/25 Scotland League Two | Elgin | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Dumbarton |
| 16/08/25 Scotland League Two | Dumbarton | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Elgin |
| 27/04/24 Scotland League Two | Dumbarton | 2-2 HT 1-2 | Elgin |
| 27/01/24 Scotland League Two | Elgin | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Dumbarton |
Standings · Scotland League Two
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Elgin | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 17 | 5 | 11 |
| 2 | Clyde | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 6 | 10 |
| 3 | Forfar | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 8 |
| 4 | Stranraer | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 7 |
| 5 | Spartans | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 11 | 6 |
| 6 | Annan Athletic | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 6 |
| 7 | Kelty Hearts | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 6 |
| 8 | Stirling | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 12 | 4 |
| 9 | FC Edinburgh | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 8 | 3 |
| 10 | Dumbarton | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 10 | 3 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Dumbarton | Elgin |
|---|---|---|
| Annan Athletic | 0-2 L | 0-3 L |
| Kelty Hearts | 1-3 L | 4-1 W |
| FC Edinburgh | 0-3 L | 5-0 W |
| Stirling | 0-2 L | 4-0 W |
| Stranraer | 1-1 D | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 0 W 1 D 4 L | 3 W 0 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Elgin (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Dumbarton
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/08 | Annan Athletic Scotland League Two |
0-0 | 0-2 | 0 | 3 | L |
| 22/08 | Kelty Hearts Scotland League Two |
1-2 | 1-3 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 15/08 | FC Edinburgh Scotland League Two |
0-2 | 0-3 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 08/08 | Clyde Scotland League Two |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 01/08 | Stirling Scotland League Two |
0-1 | 0-2 | 8 | 6 | L |
| 02/05 | FC Edinburgh Scotland League Two |
0-4 | 0-5 | – | – | L |
| 25/04 | East Kilbride Scotland League Two |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 18/04 | Clyde Scotland League Two |
0-0 | 0-2 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 11/04 | Stirling Scotland League Two |
1-0 | 2-1 | 10 | 5 | W |
| 04/04 | Stranraer Scotland League Two |
1-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 2 | D |
Elgin
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/08 | Stirling Scotland League Two |
2-0 | 4-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 22/08 | Spartans Scotland League Two |
2-1 | 3-3 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 15/08 | Kelty Hearts Scotland League Two |
1-0 | 4-1 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 08/08 | Forfar Scotland League Two |
1-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 01/08 | FC Edinburgh Scotland League Two |
3-0 | 5-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 02/05 | Stranraer Scotland League Two |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 25/04 | Spartans Scotland League Two |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 18/04 | Stirling Scotland League Two |
2-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 11/04 | Annan Athletic Scotland League Two |
0-1 | 0-3 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 04/04 | Forfar Scotland League Two |
1-2 | 1-2 | 4 | 6 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Dumbarton vs Elgin?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Elgin win (45%). Probabilities: Dumbarton 29%, draw 26%, Elgin 45%.
How many goals are expected in Dumbarton vs Elgin?
The model expects 2.89 goals (Dumbarton 1.26 · Elgin 1.63), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Dumbarton vs Elgin?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.