Prediction: Stranraer vs Dumbarton
Team pages: Stranraer · Dumbarton
- Stranraer1-1Dumbarton
- Dumbarton2-0Stranraer
- Stranraer1-1Dumbarton
- Dumbarton1-2Stranraer
- Stranraer0-0Dumbarton
- Stranraer5-0Dumbarton
| Stranraer | Draw | Dumbarton | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 49% | 27% | 24% |
| Market | 50% | 25% | 25% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Stranraer (rating 1481 vs 1406).
- H2H favours Stranraer: 2-3-1.
- High corners: 12.3 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Stranraer | Dumbarton | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 0.9 | 0.6 / 2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.5 | 0.3 / 1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/50/20% | 20/30/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.2 / 7.6 | 1.8 / 4.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.3 / 0.1 | 4 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Stranraer 2–3–1 Dumbarton
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/04/26 Scotland League Two | Stranraer | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Dumbarton |
| 10/03/26 Scotland League Two | Dumbarton | 2-0 HT 2-0 | Stranraer |
| 20/12/25 Scotland League Two | Stranraer | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Dumbarton |
| 27/09/25 Scotland League Two | Dumbarton | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Stranraer |
| 20/04/24 Scotland League Two | Stranraer | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Dumbarton |
| 05/03/24 Scotland League Two | Stranraer | 5-0 HT 4-0 | Dumbarton |
Standings · Scotland League Two
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clyde | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 8 | 13 |
| 2 | Elgin | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 18 | 7 | 11 |
| 3 | Stranraer | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 6 | 10 |
| 4 | Spartans | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 14 | 11 | 9 |
| 5 | Kelty Hearts | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 11 | 9 |
| 6 | Forfar | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 8 |
| 7 | Annan Athletic | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 9 | 6 |
| 8 | Dumbarton | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 11 | 6 |
| 9 | Stirling | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 14 | 4 |
| 10 | FC Edinburgh | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 11 | 3 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Stranraer | Dumbarton |
|---|---|---|
| Kelty Hearts | 2-0 W | 1-3 L |
| Stirling | 2-2 D | 0-2 L |
| Annan Athletic | 0-1 L | 0-2 L |
| Clyde | 1-3 L | 1-0 W |
| Elgin | 1-0 W | 2-1 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 2 L | 2 W 0 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Stranraer (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Stranraer
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/09 | Forfar Scotland League Two |
1-0 | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 29/08 | Kelty Hearts Scotland League Two |
2-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 22/08 | Stirling Scotland League Two |
2-0 | 2-2 | 8 | 5 | D |
| 15/08 | Spartans Scotland League Two |
0-0 | 1-0 | 10 | 5 | W |
| 08/08 | Annan Athletic Scotland League Two |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 01/08 | Clyde Scotland League Two |
1-3 | 1-3 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 02/05 | Elgin Scotland League Two |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 25/04 | Stirling Scotland League Two |
0-1 | 1-1 | 13 | 3 | D |
| 18/04 | Forfar Scotland League Two |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 7 | L |
| 11/04 | Spartans Scotland League Two |
1-1 | 2-1 | 7 | 5 | W |
Dumbarton
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/09 | Elgin Scotland League Two |
1-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 29/08 | Annan Athletic Scotland League Two |
0-0 | 0-2 | 0 | 3 | L |
| 22/08 | Kelty Hearts Scotland League Two |
1-2 | 1-3 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 15/08 | FC Edinburgh Scotland League Two |
0-2 | 0-3 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 08/08 | Clyde Scotland League Two |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 01/08 | Stirling Scotland League Two |
0-1 | 0-2 | 8 | 6 | L |
| 02/05 | FC Edinburgh Scotland League Two |
0-4 | 0-5 | – | – | L |
| 25/04 | East Kilbride Scotland League Two |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 18/04 | Clyde Scotland League Two |
0-0 | 0-2 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 11/04 | Stirling Scotland League Two |
1-0 | 2-1 | 10 | 5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Stranraer vs Dumbarton?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Stranraer win (49%). Probabilities: Stranraer 49%, draw 26%, Dumbarton 24%.
How many goals are expected in Stranraer vs Dumbarton?
The model expects 2.65 goals (Stranraer 1.6 · Dumbarton 1.05), with a 53% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Stranraer vs Dumbarton?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.