Football · Scotland League Two · 17/10, 16:00

Prediction: Elgin vs FC Edinburgh

Team pages: Elgin · FC Edinburgh

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.39Total

Elgin1.97

FC Edinburgh1.43

1X2

49% 24% 27%

Elgin Draw FC Edinburgh

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Elgin 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

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FC Edinburgh 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Elgin 4–2 FC Edinburgh (6 last)

FC Edinburgh0-5Elgin
FC Edinburgh0-3Elgin
Elgin3-0FC Edinburgh
FC Edinburgh1-3Elgin
Elgin2-4FC Edinburgh
FC Edinburgh2-0Elgin

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Elgin 1594 · FC Edinburgh 1491

	Elgin	Draw	FC Edinburgh
Our model	49%	24%	27%
Market	49%	25%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 3.39 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Elgin (rating 1594 vs 1491).
H2H favours Elgin: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Elgin	FC Edinburgh
Goals for / against (FT)	2.7 / 1.7	2 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.8	1.3 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/10/40%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.1	1.4 / 3.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0	5 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.85

X3.60

23.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.95

2 (+0.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.80

Under 2.752.00

Diff.: 1.35 · xG: 4.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 01:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.85 → 1.85	Bet365 1.85
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
01:05 +12’	1.85	3.60	3.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Elgin 4–0–2 FC Edinburgh

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/08/26 Scotland League Two	FC Edinburgh	0-5 HT 0-3	Elgin
21/03/26 Scotland League Two	FC Edinburgh	0-3 HT 0-2	Elgin
24/02/26 Scotland League Two	Elgin	3-0 HT 3-0	FC Edinburgh
08/11/25 Scotland League Two	FC Edinburgh	1-3 HT 1-0	Elgin
23/08/25 Scotland League Two	Elgin	2-4 HT 0-2	FC Edinburgh
12/04/25 Scotland League Two	FC Edinburgh	2-0 HT 1-0	Elgin

Standings · Scotland League Two

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Stranraer	10	6	2	2	23	9	20
2	Clyde	10	6	2	2	23	17	20
3	Elgin	10	5	2	3	27	17	17
4	Spartans	10	4	3	3	22	18	15
5	Kelty Hearts	10	4	0	6	14	20	12
6	Dumbarton	10	4	0	6	11	17	12
7	Forfar	10	3	2	5	10	17	11
8	Stirling	10	3	2	5	13	23	11
9	FC Edinburgh	10	4	3	3	20	18	10
10	Annan Athletic	10	3	0	7	10	17	9

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Elgin	FC Edinburgh
Forfar	2-1 W	1-1 D
Clyde	6-2 W	2-3 L
Stranraer	1-5 L	0-0 D
Annan Athletic	0-2 L	1-0 W
Dumbarton	1-2 L	3-0 W
Stirling	4-0 W	7-3 W
Spartans	3-3 D	1-3 L
Kelty Hearts	4-1 W	3-1 W
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 3 L	4 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Elgin (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Elgin

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Forfar Scotland League Two	1-0	2-1	1	3	W
03/10	Clyde Scotland League Two	0-1	6-2	5	1	W
19/09	Stranraer Scotland League Two	1-3	1-5	3	3	L
12/09	Annan Athletic Scotland League Two	0-1	0-2	12	0	L
05/09	Dumbarton Scotland League Two	0-1	1-2	2	4	L
29/08	Stirling Scotland League Two	2-0	4-0	3	2	W
22/08	Spartans Scotland League Two	2-1	3-3	3	5	D
15/08	Kelty Hearts Scotland League Two	1-0	4-1	4	3	W
08/08	Forfar Scotland League Two	1-1	1-1	3	5	D
01/08	FC Edinburgh Scotland League Two	3-0	5-0	5	4	W

FC Edinburgh

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Spartans Scotland League Two	1-1	1-3	2	2	L
03/10	Stranraer Scotland League Two	0-0	0-0	0	8	D
19/09	Kelty Hearts Scotland League Two	3-0	3-1	2	6	W
12/09	Stirling Scotland League Two	5-0	7-3	5	0	W
05/09	Clyde Scotland League Two	1-0	2-3	6	6	L
28/08	Forfar Scotland League Two	0-0	1-1	10	6	D
22/08	Annan Athletic Scotland League Two	0-0	1-0	3	7	W
15/08	Dumbarton Scotland League Two	2-0	3-0	2	3	W
08/08	Spartans Scotland League Two	1-0	2-2	4	8	D
01/08	Elgin Scotland League Two	0-3	0-5	3	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Elgin vs FC Edinburgh?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Elgin win (49%). Probabilities: Elgin 49%, draw 24%, FC Edinburgh 27%.

How many goals are expected in Elgin vs FC Edinburgh?

The model expects 3.39 goals (Elgin 1.97 · FC Edinburgh 1.43), with a 56% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Elgin vs FC Edinburgh?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.