Football · Scotland League Two · 17/10, 16:00
Prediction: Spartans vs Stranraer
Team pages: Spartans · Stranraer
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.35Total
Spartans1.69
Stranraer1.66
1X2
Spartans
Draw
Stranraer
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 57%
Both teams to score 59%
Most likely score
1-1 11%
Recent form · 10 last
Spartans
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Stranraer
6-2-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Spartans
2–4
Stranraer
(6 last)
- Stranraer1-0Spartans
- Spartans1-2Stranraer
- Stranraer2-1Spartans
- Spartans0-4Stranraer
- Stranraer0-2Spartans
- Spartans2-1Stranraer
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Spartans 1493 · Stranraer 1575
| Spartans | Draw | Stranraer | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 38% | 25% | 37% |
| Market | 38% | 26% | 37% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.35 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Stranraer (rating 1493 vs 1575).
- H2H favours Stranraer: 4-0-2.
- High corners: 11.3 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 8.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Spartans | Stranraer | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.2 / 1.8 | 2.3 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.8 | 1.1 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/20/60% | 50/30/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.8 / 5.2 | 3 / 6.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.5 / 0.1 | 4.4 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Spartans 2–0–4 Stranraer
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08/26 Scotland League Two | Stranraer | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Spartans |
| 11/04/26 Scotland League Two | Spartans | 1-2 HT 1-1 | Stranraer |
| 21/02/26 Scotland League Two | Stranraer | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Spartans |
| 22/11/25 Scotland League Two | Spartans | 0-4 HT 0-4 | Stranraer |
| 13/09/25 Scotland League Two | Stranraer | 0-2 HT 0-0 | Spartans |
| 05/04/25 Scotland League Two | Spartans | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Stranraer |
Standings · Scotland League Two
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stranraer | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 23 | 9 | 20 |
| 2 | Clyde | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 23 | 17 | 20 |
| 3 | Elgin | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 27 | 17 | 17 |
| 4 | Spartans | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 22 | 18 | 15 |
| 5 | Kelty Hearts | 10 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 14 | 20 | 12 |
| 6 | Dumbarton | 10 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 11 | 17 | 12 |
| 7 | Forfar | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 10 | 17 | 11 |
| 8 | Stirling | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 23 | 11 |
| 9 | FC Edinburgh | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 20 | 18 | 10 |
| 10 | Annan Athletic | 10 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 10 | 17 | 9 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Spartans | Stranraer |
|---|---|---|
| FC Edinburgh | 3-1 W | 0-0 D |
| Kelty Hearts | 0-2 L | 2-0 W |
| Dumbarton | 0-3 L | 3-1 W |
| Forfar | 5-1 W | 3-0 W |
| Stirling | 2-0 W | 2-2 D |
| Clyde | 3-3 D | 1-3 L |
| Elgin | 3-3 D | 5-1 W |
| Annan Athletic | 4-2 W | 6-1 W |
| Record vs common | 4 W 2 D 2 L | 5 W 2 D 1 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Spartans
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | FC Edinburgh Scotland League Two |
1-1 | 3-1 | 11 | 2 | W |
| 03/10 | Kelty Hearts Scotland League Two |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 19/09 | Dumbarton Scotland League Two |
0-1 | 0-3 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 12/09 | Forfar Scotland League Two |
3-0 | 5-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 05/09 | Stirling Scotland League Two |
1-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 29/08 | Clyde Scotland League Two |
0-1 | 3-3 | 10 | 5 | D |
| 22/08 | Elgin Scotland League Two |
1-2 | 3-3 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 15/08 | Stranraer Scotland League Two |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 08/08 | FC Edinburgh Scotland League Two |
0-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 8 | D |
| 01/08 | Annan Athletic Scotland League Two |
0-1 | 4-2 | 4 | 7 | W |
Stranraer
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | Annan Athletic Scotland League Two |
2-0 | 6-1 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 03/10 | FC Edinburgh Scotland League Two |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 8 | D |
| 19/09 | Elgin Scotland League Two |
3-1 | 5-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 12/09 | Dumbarton Scotland League Two |
0-1 | 3-1 | 9 | 3 | W |
| 05/09 | Forfar Scotland League Two |
1-0 | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 29/08 | Kelty Hearts Scotland League Two |
2-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 22/08 | Stirling Scotland League Two |
2-0 | 2-2 | 8 | 5 | D |
| 15/08 | Spartans Scotland League Two |
0-0 | 1-0 | 10 | 5 | W |
| 08/08 | Annan Athletic Scotland League Two |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 01/08 | Clyde Scotland League Two |
1-3 | 1-3 | 7 | 3 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Spartans vs Stranraer?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Spartans win (38%). Probabilities: Spartans 38%, draw 25%, Stranraer 37%.
How many goals are expected in Spartans vs Stranraer?
The model expects 3.35 goals (Spartans 1.69 · Stranraer 1.66), with a 51% chance of over 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Spartans vs Stranraer?
The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.