Prediction: Elgin vs Dumbarton
- Dumbarton2-1Elgin
- Elgin1-1Dumbarton
- Dumbarton2-2Elgin
- Elgin2-0Dumbarton
- Dumbarton1-1Elgin
- Dumbarton2-2Elgin
| Elgin | Draw | Dumbarton | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 55% | 23% | 22% |
| Market | 55% | 24% | 21% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Elgin (rating 1535 vs 1480).
- Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Elgin | Dumbarton | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.2 / 1.6 | 1.2 / 1.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.7 | 0.5 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/20/40% | 30/30/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 4.3 | 1.7 / 4.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.1 / 0 | 4 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Elgin 1–4–1 Dumbarton
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/09/26 Scotland League Two | Dumbarton | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Elgin |
| 14/03/26 Scotland League Two | Elgin | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Dumbarton |
| 24/01/26 Scotland League Two | Dumbarton | 2-2 HT 0-0 | Elgin |
| 15/11/25 Scotland League Two | Elgin | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Dumbarton |
| 16/08/25 Scotland League Two | Dumbarton | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Elgin |
| 27/04/24 Scotland League Two | Dumbarton | 2-2 HT 1-2 | Elgin |
Standings · Scotland League Two
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stranraer | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 25 | 9 | 24 |
| 2 | Clyde | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 27 | 18 | 24 |
| 3 | Elgin | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 28 | 17 | 21 |
| 4 | Spartans | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 25 | 22 | 18 |
| 5 | Kelty Hearts | 12 | 5 | 0 | 7 | 16 | 22 | 15 |
| 6 | Stirling | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 19 | 26 | 15 |
| 7 | FC Edinburgh | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 22 | 19 | 14 |
| 8 | Dumbarton | 12 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 13 | 20 | 13 |
| 9 | Forfar | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 13 | 24 | 11 |
| 10 | Annan Athletic | 12 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 13 | 24 | 9 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Elgin | Dumbarton |
|---|---|---|
| Kelty Hearts | 1-0 W | 1-3 L |
| FC Edinburgh | 0-0 D | 1-2 L |
| Forfar | 2-1 W | 2-1 W |
| Clyde | 6-2 W | 1-2 L |
| Stranraer | 1-5 L | 1-3 L |
| Annan Athletic | 0-2 L | 0-2 L |
| Stirling | 4-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Spartans | 3-3 D | 3-0 W |
| Record vs common | 4 W 2 D 2 L | 2 W 1 D 5 L |
Better against common opponents: Elgin (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Elgin
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | Kelty Hearts Scotland League Two |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 17/10 | FC Edinburgh Scotland League Two |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 5 | D |
| 10/10 | Forfar Scotland League Two |
1-0 | 2-1 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 03/10 | Clyde Scotland League Two |
0-1 | 6-2 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 19/09 | Stranraer Scotland League Two |
1-3 | 1-5 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 12/09 | Annan Athletic Scotland League Two |
0-1 | 0-2 | 12 | 0 | L |
| 05/09 | Dumbarton Scotland League Two |
0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 29/08 | Stirling Scotland League Two |
2-0 | 4-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 22/08 | Spartans Scotland League Two |
2-1 | 3-3 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 15/08 | Kelty Hearts Scotland League Two |
1-0 | 4-1 | 4 | 3 | W |
Dumbarton
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | FC Edinburgh Scotland League Two |
1-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 7 | L |
| 17/10 | Stirling Scotland League Two |
0-0 | 1-1 | 8 | 5 | D |
| 10/10 | Clyde Scotland League Two |
0-2 | 1-2 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 03/10 | Forfar Scotland League Two |
0-1 | 2-1 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 19/09 | Spartans Scotland League Two |
1-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 12/09 | Stranraer Scotland League Two |
1-0 | 1-3 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 05/09 | Elgin Scotland League Two |
1-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 29/08 | Annan Athletic Scotland League Two |
0-0 | 0-2 | 0 | 3 | L |
| 22/08 | Kelty Hearts Scotland League Two |
1-2 | 1-3 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 15/08 | FC Edinburgh Scotland League Two |
0-2 | 0-3 | 8 | 3 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Elgin vs Dumbarton?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Elgin win (55%). Probabilities: Elgin 55%, draw 24%, Dumbarton 22%.
How many goals are expected in Elgin vs Dumbarton?
The model expects 3.23 goals (Elgin 2.02 · Dumbarton 1.22), with a 50% chance of over 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Elgin vs Dumbarton?
The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.