Football · Scotland League Two · 14/11, 16:00

Prediction: Dumbarton vs Annan Athletic

Team pages: Dumbarton · Annan Athletic

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.82Total

Dumbarton1.53

Annan Athletic1.29

1X2

42% 26% 32%

Dumbarton Draw Annan Athletic

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Dumbarton 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LLWLWWLDLW

Annan Athletic 2-0-8 (W-D-L)

LWLWLLLLLL

Head-to-head

Dumbarton 4–2 Annan Athletic (6 last)

Annan Athletic2-0Dumbarton
Dumbarton2-1Annan Athletic
Annan Athletic1-0Dumbarton
Dumbarton2-1Annan Athletic
Annan Athletic3-4Dumbarton
Dumbarton3-1Annan Athletic

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Dumbarton 1522 · Annan Athletic 1412

	Dumbarton	Draw	Annan Athletic
Our model	42%	27%	31%
Market	43%	26%	32%

Estimated total (ours) 2.82 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Dumbarton (rating 1522 vs 1412).
H2H favours Dumbarton: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Dumbarton	Annan Athletic
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.5	1 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.6	0.2 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	10/40/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 4.3	1.8 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.1	4.2 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.50

22.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.90

2 (+0.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 32.00

Under 31.80

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:30

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	2.80 → 2.80	Bet365 2.80

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
00:19 +11’	2.10	3.50	2.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Dumbarton 4–0–2 Annan Athletic

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Date	Home	Score	Away
29/08/26 Scotland League Two	Annan Athletic	2-0 HT 0-0	Dumbarton
21/03/26 Scotland League Two	Dumbarton	2-1 HT 0-0	Annan Athletic
10/02/26 Scotland League Two	Annan Athletic	1-0 HT 0-0	Dumbarton
08/11/25 Scotland League Two	Dumbarton	2-1 HT 1-0	Annan Athletic
23/08/25 Scotland League Two	Annan Athletic	3-4 HT 0-2	Dumbarton
26/04/25 Scotland League One	Dumbarton	3-1 HT 1-0	Annan Athletic

Standings · Scotland League Two

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Stranraer	13	8	3	2	28	9	27
2	Clyde	13	8	3	2	30	20	27
3	Elgin	13	6	3	4	28	19	21
4	Spartans	13	5	3	5	27	25	18
5	Kelty Hearts	13	6	0	7	18	23	18
6	Dumbarton	13	5	1	7	15	20	16
7	FC Edinburgh	13	5	5	3	23	20	15
8	Stirling	13	4	3	6	19	29	15
9	Forfar	13	3	3	7	14	25	12
10	Annan Athletic	13	3	0	10	14	26	9

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Dumbarton	Annan Athletic
Elgin	2-0 W	2-0 W
FC Edinburgh	1-2 L	0-1 L
Stirling	1-1 D	0-1 L
Clyde	1-2 L	1-4 L
Forfar	2-1 W	0-1 L
Spartans	3-0 W	2-3 L
Stranraer	1-3 L	1-6 L
Kelty Hearts	1-3 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 4 L	1 W 0 D 7 L

Better against common opponents: Dumbarton (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Dumbarton

LLWLWWLDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Elgin Scotland League Two	1-0	2-0	4	3	W
31/10	FC Edinburgh Scotland League Two	1-1	1-2	6	7	L
17/10	Stirling Scotland League Two	0-0	1-1	8	5	D
10/10	Clyde Scotland League Two	0-2	1-2	1	5	L
03/10	Forfar Scotland League Two	0-1	2-1	7	3	W
19/09	Spartans Scotland League Two	1-0	3-0	5	4	W
12/09	Stranraer Scotland League Two	1-0	1-3	3	3	L
05/09	Elgin Scotland League Two	1-0	2-1	5	4	W
29/08	Annan Athletic Scotland League Two	0-0	0-2	0	3	L
22/08	Kelty Hearts Scotland League Two	1-2	1-3	4	4	L

Annan Athletic

LWLWLLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Kelty Hearts Scotland League Two	0-1	1-2	3	8	L
31/10	Spartans Scotland League Two	1-1	2-3	3	6	L
17/10	Clyde Scotland League Two	0-1	1-4	3	4	L
10/10	Stranraer Scotland League Two	0-2	1-6	3	4	L
03/10	Stirling Scotland League Two	0-0	0-1	5	7	L
19/09	Forfar Scotland League Two	0-1	0-1	5	1	L
12/09	Elgin Scotland League Two	1-0	2-0	1	0	W
05/09	Kelty Hearts Scotland League Two	0-1	1-2	6	3	L
29/08	Dumbarton Scotland League Two	0-0	2-0	5	3	W
22/08	FC Edinburgh Scotland League Two	0-0	0-1	4	7	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Dumbarton vs Annan Athletic?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Dumbarton win (42%). Probabilities: Dumbarton 42%, draw 26%, Annan Athletic 32%.

How many goals are expected in Dumbarton vs Annan Athletic?

The model expects 2.82 goals (Dumbarton 1.53 · Annan Athletic 1.29), with a 56% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Dumbarton vs Annan Athletic?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.