Football · Scotland League Two · 21/11, 16:00

Prediction: FC Edinburgh vs Kelty Hearts

Team pages: FC Edinburgh · Kelty Hearts

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.1Total

FC Edinburgh1.66

Kelty Hearts1.45

1X2

41% 26% 32%

FC Edinburgh Draw Kelty Hearts

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Edinburgh 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

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Kelty Hearts 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

FC Edinburgh 2–4 Kelty Hearts (6 last)

FC Edinburgh4-1Kelty Hearts
Kelty Hearts1-3FC Edinburgh
Kelty Hearts3-1FC Edinburgh
Kelty Hearts3-2FC Edinburgh
FC Edinburgh0-3Kelty Hearts
FC Edinburgh1-4Kelty Hearts

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Edinburgh 1465 · Kelty Hearts 1481

	FC Edinburgh	Draw	Kelty Hearts
Our model	42%	26%	33%
Market	41%	26%	32%

Estimated total (ours) 3.1 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Kelty Hearts: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 10.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Edinburgh	Kelty Hearts
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1.9	1.1 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	1.4 / 0.5	0.5 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/70/0%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.8	2 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.3 / 0	4.9 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.15

X3.40

22.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.98

2 (+0.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.82

Under 2.751.98

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:25

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.15 → 2.15	Bet365 2.15
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	2.75 → 2.75	Bet365 2.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.3%

Time*	1	X	2
00:19 +6’	2.15	3.40	2.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Edinburgh 2–0–4 Kelty Hearts

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/10/26 Scotland FA Cup	FC Edinburgh	4-1 HT 2-0	Kelty Hearts
19/09/26 Scotland League Two	Kelty Hearts	1-3 HT 0-3	FC Edinburgh
30/03/24 Scotland League One	Kelty Hearts	3-1 HT 1-1	FC Edinburgh
13/02/24 Scotland League One	Kelty Hearts	3-2 HT 1-1	FC Edinburgh
03/02/24 Scotland League One	FC Edinburgh	0-3 HT 0-1	Kelty Hearts
07/10/23 Scotland League One	FC Edinburgh	1-4 HT 0-2	Kelty Hearts

Standings · Scotland League Two

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Stranraer	14	9	3	2	29	9	30
2	Clyde	14	9	3	2	36	22	30
3	Elgin	14	6	3	5	29	21	21
4	Spartans	14	5	3	6	28	27	18
5	Kelty Hearts	14	6	0	8	18	24	18
6	Stirling	14	5	3	6	21	30	18
7	Dumbarton	14	5	1	8	15	25	16
8	FC Edinburgh	14	5	5	4	25	26	15
9	Forfar	14	4	3	7	16	26	15
10	Annan Athletic	14	4	0	10	19	26	12

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Edinburgh	Kelty Hearts
Clyde	2-6 L	1-4 L
Forfar	1-1 D	2-1 W
Elgin	0-0 D	0-1 L
Spartans	1-3 L	2-0 W
Stranraer	0-0 D	0-1 L
Stirling	7-3 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 2 L	2 W 0 D 4 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Edinburgh

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/11	Clyde Scotland League Two	2-2	2-6	3	6	L
07/11	Forfar Scotland League Two	1-1	1-1	7	7	D
31/10	Dumbarton Scotland League Two	1-1	2-1	6	7	W
17/10	Elgin Scotland League Two	0-0	0-0	7	5	D
10/10	Spartans Scotland League Two	1-1	1-3	2	2	L
03/10	Stranraer Scotland League Two	0-0	0-0	0	8	D
19/09	Kelty Hearts Scotland League Two	3-0	3-1	2	6	W
12/09	Stirling Scotland League Two	5-0	7-3	5	0	W
05/09	Clyde Scotland League Two	1-0	2-3	6	6	L
28/08	Forfar Scotland League Two	0-0	1-1	10	6	D

Kelty Hearts

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/11	Stranraer Scotland League Two	0-1	0-1	3	5	L
07/11	Annan Athletic Scotland League Two	1-0	2-1	8	8	W
31/10	Elgin Scotland League Two	0-0	0-1	8	5	L
17/10	Forfar Scotland League Two	1-1	2-1	5	6	W
10/10	Stirling Scotland League Two	1-0	1-2	5	6	L
03/10	Spartans Scotland League Two	1-0	2-0	9	3	W
19/09	FC Edinburgh Scotland League Two	0-3	1-3	1	6	L
12/09	Clyde Scotland League Two	0-1	1-4	6	4	L
05/09	Annan Athletic Scotland League Two	1-0	2-1	1	3	W
29/08	Stranraer Scotland League Two	0-2	0-2	7	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Edinburgh vs Kelty Hearts?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Edinburgh win (41%). Probabilities: FC Edinburgh 41%, draw 26%, Kelty Hearts 32%.

How many goals are expected in FC Edinburgh vs Kelty Hearts?

The model expects 3.1 goals (FC Edinburgh 1.66 · Kelty Hearts 1.45), with a 53% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Edinburgh vs Kelty Hearts?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.