Football · Scotland League One · 08/08, 16:00
Prediction: Hamilton vs Alloa
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.42Total
Hamilton1.72
Alloa0.7
1X2
Hamilton
Draw
Alloa
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 52%
Not both to score 51%
Most likely score
1-0
Recent form · 10 last
Hamilton
6-3-1 (W-D-L)
Alloa
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Hamilton
3–1–2
Alloa
(6 last)
- Hamilton1-0Alloa
- Alloa3-0Hamilton
- Hamilton1-0Alloa
- Alloa1-0Hamilton
- Hamilton3-2Alloa
- Alloa2-2Hamilton
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Hamilton 1577 · Alloa 1486
| Hamilton | Draw | Alloa | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 61% | 25% | 14% |
| Market | 61% | 25% | 14% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.42 goals · Bet365 line 2.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Hamilton (rating 1577 vs 1486).
- H2H favours Hamilton: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 5.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Hamilton | Alloa | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.5 / 0.9 | 0.9 / 1.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.3 / 0.4 | 0.2 / 1.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/50/0% | 20/20/60% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.6 / 4.7 | 2.3 / 5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 1.8 / 0 | 3.3 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Hamilton 3–1–2 Alloa
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/04/26 Scotland League One | Hamilton | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Alloa |
| 21/02/26 Scotland League One | Alloa | 3-0 HT 0-0 | Hamilton |
| 20/12/25 Scotland League One | Hamilton | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Alloa |
| 23/08/25 Scotland League One | Alloa | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Hamilton |
| 11/05/24 Scotland Championship Play-Offs | Hamilton | 3-2 HT 2-1 | Alloa |
| 07/05/24 Scotland Championship Play-Offs | Alloa | 2-2 HT 0-1 | Hamilton |
Standings · Scotland League One
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hamilton | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 3 |
| 2 | East Kilbride | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 3 |
| 3 | Ross County | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | Airdrieonians | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 4 | Alloa | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 4 | Cove Rangers | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 4 | East Fife | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 8 | Peterhead | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 9 | Queen of South | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| 10 | Montrose | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Hamilton
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08 | Montrose Scotland League One |
2-0 | 5-0 | 9 | 0 | W |
| 25/07 | Elgin Scotland League Cup |
2-0 | 5-0 | 9 | 2 | W |
| 21/07 | Kilmarnock Scotland League Cup |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 18/07 | Raith Scotland League Cup |
1-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 11/07 | Peterhead Scotland League Cup |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 04/07 | Haverfordwest County UK Friendlies |
2-0 | 4-0 | 2 | 0 | W |
| 27/06 | Raith UK Friendlies |
2-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 0 | D |
| 15/05 | Clyde Scotland League One Play-Offs |
2-2 | 4-3 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 12/05 | Clyde Scotland League One Play-Offs |
1-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 09/05 | Forfar Scotland League One Play-Offs |
0-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 3 | W |
Alloa
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08 | East Fife Scotland League One |
0-0 | 0-0 | 12 | 2 | D |
| 25/07 | Ayr Scotland League Cup |
0-3 | 1-4 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 21/07 | Falkirk Scotland League Cup |
0-1 | 1-1 | 1 | 2 | D |
| 18/07 | Stranraer Scotland League Cup |
0-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 14/07 | FC Edinburgh Scotland League Cup |
0-2 | 0-2 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 30/06 | Livingston UK Friendlies |
0-2 | 0-3 | 1 | 0 | L |
| 16/05 | Stenhousemuir Scotland Championship Play-Offs |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 11 | W |
| 13/05 | Stenhousemuir Scotland Championship Play-Offs |
0-2 | 1-3 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 09/05 | Airdrieonians Scotland Championship Play-Offs |
1-0 | 2-1 | 10 | 3 | W |
| 05/05 | Airdrieonians Scotland Championship Play-Offs |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Hamilton vs Alloa?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Hamilton win (61%). Probabilities: Hamilton 61%, draw 25%, Alloa 14%.
How many goals are expected in Hamilton vs Alloa?
The model expects 2.42 goals (Hamilton 1.72 · Alloa 0.7), with a 52% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Hamilton vs Alloa?
The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.