Football · Scotland League One · 15/08, 16:00
Prediction: Alloa vs Montrose
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.02Total
Alloa1.82
Montrose1.2
1X2
Alloa
Draw
Montrose
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 64%
Both teams to score 56%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Alloa
2-3-5 (W-D-L)
Montrose
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Alloa
4–2
Montrose
(6 last)
- Montrose5-4Alloa
- Alloa4-1Montrose
- Montrose0-4Alloa
- Alloa0-1Montrose
- Alloa2-1Montrose
- Alloa2-1Montrose
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alloa 1474 · Montrose 1487
| Alloa | Draw | Montrose | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 51% | 25% | 24% |
| Market | 51% | 25% | 24% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.02 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Alloa: 4-0-2.
- Cards-heavy: 5.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Alloa | Montrose | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.8 / 1.7 | 1.5 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.1 / 1.2 | 0.7 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/20/70% | 40/20/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 4.8 | 3 / 5.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.5 / 0 | 2.3 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Alloa 4–0–2 Montrose
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/03/26 Scotland League One | Montrose | 5-4 HT 2-2 | Alloa |
| 20/01/26 Scotland League One | Alloa | 4-1 HT 2-0 | Montrose |
| 08/11/25 Scotland League One | Montrose | 0-4 HT 0-1 | Alloa |
| 13/09/25 Scotland League One | Alloa | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Montrose |
| 15/07/25 Scotland League Cup | Alloa | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Montrose |
| 26/04/25 Scotland League One | Alloa | 2-1 HT 0-1 | Montrose |
Standings · Scotland League One
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hamilton | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 6 |
| 2 | Ross County | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 3 | East Kilbride | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 4 |
| 4 | East Fife | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| 5 | Peterhead | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 6 | Airdrieonians | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| 7 | Alloa | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 8 | Cove Rangers | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
| 9 | Queen of South | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| 10 | Montrose | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alloa
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08 | Hamilton Scotland League One |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 01/08 | East Fife Scotland League One |
0-0 | 0-0 | 12 | 2 | D |
| 25/07 | Ayr Scotland League Cup |
0-3 | 1-4 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 21/07 | Falkirk Scotland League Cup |
0-1 | 1-1 | 1 | 2 | D |
| 18/07 | Stranraer Scotland League Cup |
0-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 14/07 | FC Edinburgh Scotland League Cup |
0-2 | 0-2 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 30/06 | Livingston UK Friendlies |
0-2 | 0-3 | 1 | 0 | L |
| 16/05 | Stenhousemuir Scotland Championship Play-Offs |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 11 | W |
| 13/05 | Stenhousemuir Scotland Championship Play-Offs |
0-2 | 1-3 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 09/05 | Airdrieonians Scotland Championship Play-Offs |
1-0 | 2-1 | 10 | 3 | W |
Montrose
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08 | Ross County Scotland League One |
1-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 01/08 | Hamilton Scotland League One |
0-2 | 0-5 | 4 | 0 | L |
| 25/07 | Spartans Scotland League Cup |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 21/07 | Arbroath Scotland League Cup |
2-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 18/07 | Stirling Scotland League Cup |
2-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 14/07 | Dundee Utd Scotland League Cup |
1-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 08/07 | Inverurie Loco Works Club Friendly List |
1-0 | 7-0 | – | – | W |
| 04/07 | St Johnstone Club Friendly List |
0-2 | 0-3 | – | – | L |
| 01/07 | Civil Service Strollers UK Friendlies |
0-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 2 | D |
| 27/06 | Forfar UK Friendlies |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 0 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alloa vs Montrose?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Alloa win (51%). Probabilities: Alloa 51%, draw 25%, Montrose 24%.
How many goals are expected in Alloa vs Montrose?
The model expects 3.02 goals (Alloa 1.82 · Montrose 1.2), with a 51% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Alloa vs Montrose?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.