Prediction: Alloa vs Hamilton
- Hamilton1-0Alloa
- Hamilton1-0Alloa
- Alloa3-0Hamilton
- Hamilton1-0Alloa
- Alloa1-0Hamilton
- Hamilton3-2Alloa
| Alloa | Draw | Hamilton | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 19% | 30% | 52% |
| Market | 21% | 24% | 54% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Hamilton (rating 1483 vs 1609).
- H2H favours Hamilton: 4-0-2.
- High corners: 11.8 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Alloa | Hamilton | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1 / 1.4 | 2.2 / 0.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.6 | 1 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/30/50% | 70/20/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.9 / 5.8 | 3.2 / 6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.1 / 0.1 | 3.1 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Alloa 2–0–4 Hamilton
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08/26 Scotland League One | Hamilton | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Alloa |
| 11/04/26 Scotland League One | Hamilton | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Alloa |
| 21/02/26 Scotland League One | Alloa | 3-0 HT 0-0 | Hamilton |
| 20/12/25 Scotland League One | Hamilton | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Alloa |
| 23/08/25 Scotland League One | Alloa | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Hamilton |
| 11/05/24 Scotland Championship Play-Offs | Hamilton | 3-2 HT 2-1 | Alloa |
Standings · Scotland League One
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ross County | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 26 | 5 | 22 |
| 2 | Hamilton | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 2 | 22 |
| 3 | East Kilbride | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 12 | 16 |
| 4 | Montrose | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
| 5 | Airdrieonians | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 11 | 12 |
| 6 | Alloa | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 10 | 9 |
| 7 | East Fife | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 8 |
| 8 | Peterhead | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 16 | 7 |
| 9 | Queen of South | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 10 | 27 | 7 |
| 10 | Cove Rangers | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 15 | 5 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Alloa | Hamilton |
|---|---|---|
| East Kilbride | 1-2 L | 1-0 W |
| Airdrieonians | 0-1 L | 4-0 W |
| Cove Rangers | 1-1 D | 1-0 W |
| Peterhead | 1-1 D | 2-1 W |
| Queen of South | 2-0 W | 4-1 W |
| Montrose | 3-0 W | 5-0 W |
| East Fife | 0-0 D | 0-0 D |
| Record vs common | 2 W 3 D 2 L | 6 W 1 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Hamilton (6 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alloa
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/10 | Ross County Scotland League One |
0-1 | 1-4 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 19/09 | East Kilbride Scotland League One |
0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 12/09 | Airdrieonians Scotland League One |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 05/09 | Cove Rangers Scotland League One |
0-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 6 | D |
| 29/08 | Peterhead Scotland League One |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 22/08 | Queen of South Scotland League One |
0-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 15/08 | Montrose Scotland League One |
2-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 08/08 | Hamilton Scotland League One |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 01/08 | East Fife Scotland League One |
0-0 | 0-0 | 12 | 2 | D |
| 02/05 | Queen of South Scotland League One |
1-1 | 1-4 | 10 | 2 | L |
Hamilton
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/10 | Peterhead Scotland League One |
0-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 19/09 | Queen of South Scotland League One |
3-1 | 4-1 | 9 | 2 | W |
| 05/09 | East Kilbride Scotland League One |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 29/08 | Cove Rangers Scotland League One |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 22/08 | East Fife Scotland League One |
0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 2 | D |
| 15/08 | Airdrieonians Scotland League One |
1-0 | 4-0 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 08/08 | Alloa Scotland League One |
1-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 6 | W |
| 01/08 | Montrose Scotland League One |
2-0 | 5-0 | 9 | 0 | W |
| 02/05 | Inverness CT Scotland League One |
0-2 | 1-2 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 25/04 | Peterhead Scotland League One |
1-0 | 3-1 | 3 | 3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alloa vs Hamilton?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Hamilton win (53%). Probabilities: Alloa 20%, draw 27%, Hamilton 53%.
How many goals are expected in Alloa vs Hamilton?
The model expects 2.16 goals (Alloa 0.75 · Hamilton 1.41), with a 55% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Alloa vs Hamilton?
The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-1.