Football · Scotland Championship · 22/08, 16:00
Prediction: Morton vs Arbroath
Prediction summary
Expected goals
1.85Total
Morton0.73
Arbroath1.12
1X2
Morton
Draw
Arbroath
Markets
Over 1.5 goals 56%
Not both to score 54%
Most likely score
0-0
Recent form · 10 last
Morton
0-3-7 (W-D-L)
Arbroath
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Morton
4–2–0
Arbroath
(6 last)
- Morton2-1Arbroath
- Arbroath1-1Morton
- Morton1-0Arbroath
- Arbroath1-1Morton
- Arbroath1-2Morton
- Morton3-0Arbroath
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Morton 1429 · Arbroath 1461
| Morton | Draw | Arbroath | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 23% | 34% | 43% |
| Market | 26% | 28% | 46% |
Estimated total (ours)
1.85 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · -0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 67%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Morton: 4-2-0.
- Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Morton | Arbroath | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.1 / 1.5 | 0.9 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0 / 0.5 | 0.5 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 0/70/30% | 20/30/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.9 / 4.2 | 1.9 / 4.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.4 / 0.2 | 3.6 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Morton 4–2–0 Arbroath
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/03/26 Scotland Championship | Morton | 2-1 HT 2-1 | Arbroath |
| 23/01/26 Scotland Championship | Arbroath | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Morton |
| 08/11/25 Scotland Championship | Morton | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Arbroath |
| 20/09/25 Scotland Championship | Arbroath | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Morton |
| 20/04/24 Scotland Championship | Arbroath | 1-2 HT 0-0 | Morton |
| 27/01/24 Scotland Championship | Morton | 3-0 HT 0-0 | Arbroath |
Standings · Scotland Championship
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Partick | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| 2 | Ayr | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| 2 | Stenhousemuir | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| 4 | Raith | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 4 |
| 5 | Livingston | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| 6 | Dunfermline | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| 7 | Inverness CT | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 8 | Arbroath | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
| 9 | Queen's Park | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| 10 | Morton | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Morton
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08 | Stenhousemuir Scotland Championship |
0-0 | 0-2 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 01/08 | Partick Scotland Championship |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 25/07 | Inverness CT Scotland League Cup |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 18/07 | St Johnstone Scotland League Cup |
0-0 | 0-3 | 0 | 5 | L |
| 14/07 | East Fife Scotland League Cup |
0-2 | 0-2 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 11/07 | Linlithgow Rose Scotland League Cup |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 04/07 | Stranraer UK Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | D |
| 01/05 | Airdrieonians Scotland Championship |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 8 | D |
| 25/04 | Ross County Scotland Championship |
0-2 | 0-4 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 18/04 | Queen's Park Scotland Championship |
0-0 | 0-0 | 11 | 2 | D |
Arbroath
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08 | Inverness CT Scotland Championship |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 6 | D |
| 01/08 | Ayr Scotland Championship |
0-1 | 0-2 | 7 | 0 | L |
| 25/07 | Stirling Scotland League Cup |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 21/07 | Montrose Scotland League Cup |
0-2 | 0-2 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 18/07 | Dundee Utd Scotland League Cup |
0-1 | 0-3 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 11/07 | Spartans Scotland League Cup |
1-0 | 2-1 | 8 | 4 | W |
| 04/07 | Brechin Club Friendly List |
3-0 | 4-1 | – | – | W |
| 27/06 | St Mirren UK Friendlies |
1-2 | 2-4 | 2 | 0 | L |
| 08/05 | Dunfermline Scotland Premiership Play-Offs |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 7 | D |
| 05/05 | Dunfermline Scotland Premiership Play-Offs |
0-1 | 0-1 | 0 | 5 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Morton vs Arbroath?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Arbroath win (45%). Probabilities: Morton 24%, draw 31%, Arbroath 45%.
How many goals are expected in Morton vs Arbroath?
The model expects 1.85 goals (Morton 0.73 · Arbroath 1.12), with a 58% chance of under 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Morton vs Arbroath?
The model gives a 54% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.