Prediction: Ayr vs Morton
- Ayr0-1Morton
- Morton1-1Ayr
- Ayr2-1Morton
- Morton2-2Ayr
- Morton2-1Ayr
- Ayr0-0Morton
| Ayr | Draw | Morton | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 53% | 28% | 19% |
| Market | 54% | 25% | 21% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ayr (rating 1519 vs 1406).
- H2H favours Morton: 2-3-1.
- Cards-heavy: 6.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Ayr | Morton | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.7 / 1.5 | 0.8 / 1.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.7 | 0.5 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/40/40% | 40/40/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.7 / 4.8 | 1.4 / 3.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.2 / 0.3 | 3.4 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Ayr 1–3–2 Morton
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/03/26 Scotland Championship | Ayr | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Morton |
| 27/12/25 Scotland Championship | Morton | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Ayr |
| 18/10/25 Scotland Championship | Ayr | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Morton |
| 23/08/25 Scotland Championship | Morton | 2-2 HT 1-0 | Ayr |
| 08/03/25 Scotland Championship | Morton | 2-1 HT 0-1 | Ayr |
| 28/12/24 Scotland Championship | Ayr | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Morton |
Standings · Scotland Championship
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stenhousemuir | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 7 |
| 2 | Raith | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 7 |
| 3 | Partick | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 7 |
| 4 | Livingston | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 6 |
| 5 | Ayr | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
| 6 | Arbroath | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
| 7 | Inverness CT | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 8 | Dunfermline | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 |
| 9 | Morton | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| 10 | Queen's Park | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Ayr | Morton |
|---|---|---|
| Raith | 0-2 L | 2-3 L |
| Dunfermline | 1-1 D | 1-3 L |
| Arbroath | 2-0 W | 1-2 L |
| Airdrieonians | 1-2 L | 1-1 D |
| Ross County | 1-2 L | 0-4 L |
| Partick | 1-1 D | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 2 D 3 L | 0 W 1 D 5 L |
Better against common opponents: Ayr (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Ayr
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/08 | Raith Scotland Championship |
0-2 | 0-2 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 08/08 | Dunfermline Scotland Championship |
1-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 1 | D |
| 01/08 | Arbroath Scotland Championship |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 0 | W |
| 01/05 | St Johnstone Scotland Championship |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 2 | L |
| 25/04 | Airdrieonians Scotland Championship |
1-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 18/04 | Ross County Scotland Championship |
1-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 11/04 | Arbroath Scotland Championship |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 07/04 | Dunfermline Scotland Championship |
0-1 | 0-3 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 04/04 | Partick Scotland Championship |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 8 | D |
| 27/03 | Raith Scotland Championship |
0-1 | 0-3 | 4 | 2 | L |
Morton
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/08 | Arbroath Scotland Championship |
0-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 08/08 | Stenhousemuir Scotland Championship |
0-0 | 0-2 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 01/08 | Partick Scotland Championship |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 01/05 | Airdrieonians Scotland Championship |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 8 | D |
| 25/04 | Ross County Scotland Championship |
0-2 | 0-4 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 18/04 | Queen's Park Scotland Championship |
0-0 | 0-0 | 11 | 2 | D |
| 11/04 | Raith Scotland Championship |
1-0 | 2-3 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 04/04 | Dunfermline Scotland Championship |
1-0 | 1-3 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 28/03 | Arbroath Scotland Championship |
2-1 | 2-1 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 21/03 | Ayr Scotland Championship |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 7 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Ayr vs Morton?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Ayr win (54%). Probabilities: Ayr 54%, draw 26%, Morton 20%.
How many goals are expected in Ayr vs Morton?
The model expects 2.37 goals (Ayr 1.54 · Morton 0.83), with a 55% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Ayr vs Morton?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.