Prediction: Arbroath vs Dunfermline
Team pages: Arbroath · Dunfermline
- Arbroath0-0Dunfermline
- Dunfermline1-0Arbroath
- Dunfermline0-0Arbroath
- Arbroath4-2Dunfermline
- Dunfermline1-2Arbroath
- Arbroath0-5Dunfermline
| Arbroath | Draw | Dunfermline | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 33% | 31% | 36% |
| Market | 34% | 30% | 36% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Dunfermline (rating 1487 vs 1547).
- Cards-heavy: 6.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Arbroath | Dunfermline | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.8 / 1.1 | 0.9 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.4 | 0.3 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/60/20% | 20/50/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 4.6 | 2.1 / 4.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.7 / 0.2 | 2.4 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Arbroath 2–2–2 Dunfermline
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/05/26 Scotland Premiership Play-Offs | Arbroath | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Dunfermline |
| 05/05/26 Scotland Premiership Play-Offs | Dunfermline | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Arbroath |
| 01/05/26 Scotland Championship | Dunfermline | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Arbroath |
| 21/02/26 Scotland Championship | Arbroath | 4-2 HT 1-1 | Dunfermline |
| 06/12/25 Scotland Championship | Dunfermline | 1-2 HT 0-0 | Arbroath |
| 13/09/25 Scotland Championship | Arbroath | 0-5 HT 0-2 | Dunfermline |
Standings · Scotland Championship
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stenhousemuir | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 10 |
| 2 | Partick | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 8 |
| 3 | Raith | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 7 |
| 4 | Arbroath | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 7 |
| 5 | Livingston | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 6 |
| 6 | Ayr | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 5 |
| 7 | Dunfermline | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 8 | Inverness CT | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 3 |
| 9 | Morton | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 1 |
| 10 | Queen's Park | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 1 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Arbroath | Dunfermline |
|---|---|---|
| Livingston | 1-0 W | 0-2 L |
| Inverness CT | 0-0 D | 0-0 D |
| Ayr | 0-2 L | 1-1 D |
| Partick | 0-0 D | 0-2 L |
| Raith | 2-1 W | 1-0 W |
| St Johnstone | 2-4 L | 0-2 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 2 D 2 L | 1 W 2 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Arbroath (2 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Arbroath
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/08 | Livingston Scotland Championship |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 22/08 | Morton Scotland Championship |
1-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 08/08 | Inverness CT Scotland Championship |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 6 | D |
| 01/08 | Ayr Scotland Championship |
0-1 | 0-2 | 7 | 0 | L |
| 01/05 | Dunfermline Scotland Championship |
0-0 | 0-0 | 11 | 2 | D |
| 25/04 | Partick Scotland Championship |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | D |
| 18/04 | Raith Scotland Championship |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 11/04 | Ayr Scotland Championship |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 04/04 | St Johnstone Scotland Championship |
1-1 | 2-4 | 3 | 8 | L |
| 28/03 | Morton Scotland Championship |
1-2 | 1-2 | 4 | 3 | L |
Dunfermline
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/08 | Raith Scotland Championship |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 22/08 | Livingston Scotland Championship |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 08/08 | Ayr Scotland Championship |
1-1 | 1-1 | 12 | 1 | D |
| 01/08 | Inverness CT Scotland Championship |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | D |
| 01/05 | Arbroath Scotland Championship |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 25/04 | Queen's Park Scotland Championship |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 21/04 | St Johnstone Scotland Championship |
0-0 | 0-2 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 14/04 | Airdrieonians Scotland Championship |
0-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 11/04 | Partick Scotland Championship |
0-2 | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | L |
| 07/04 | Ayr Scotland Championship |
1-0 | 3-0 | 0 | 5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Arbroath vs Dunfermline?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Dunfermline win (36%). Probabilities: Arbroath 34%, draw 30%, Dunfermline 36%.
How many goals are expected in Arbroath vs Dunfermline?
The model expects 2.28 goals (Arbroath 1.12 · Dunfermline 1.17), with a 55% chance of over 2 goals.
Will both teams score in Arbroath vs Dunfermline?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.