Football · Scotland Championship · 05/09, 16:00

Prediction: Queen's Park vs Morton

Team pages: Queen's Park · Morton

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.15Total

Queen's Park1.18

Morton0.97

1X2

41% 30% 30%

Queen's Park Draw Morton

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Queen's Park 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

DWLDLDLLLD

Morton 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

WLLDLDLLLD

Head-to-head

Queen's Park 1–2–3 Morton (6 last)

Morton0-0Queen's Park
Queen's Park3-2Morton
Morton2-1Queen's Park
Queen's Park0-0Morton
Morton2-1Queen's Park
Queen's Park1-2Morton

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Queen's Park 1490 · Morton 1400

	Queen's Park	Draw	Morton
Our model	39%	32%	29%
Market	41%	28%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 2.15 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Queen's Park (rating 1490 vs 1400).
H2H favours Morton: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Queen's Park	Morton
Goals for / against (FT)	0.4 / 1.2	0.8 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.4	0.4 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 2.8	1.6 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0.2	3.1 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.15

X3.20

22.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.95

2 (+0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.02

Under 2.51.77

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 01:13

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.15 → 2.15	Pinn 2.28
X	3.20 → 3.20	Pinn 3.26
2	2.90 → 2.90	Pinn 3.12 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.2% Pinnacle margin 6.6%

Time*	1	X	2
01:07 +5’	2.15	3.20	2.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
01:05 +8’	2.28	3.26	3.12

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Queen's Park 1–2–3 Morton

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/04/26 Scotland Championship	Morton	0-0 HT 0-0	Queen's Park
21/02/26 Scotland Championship	Queen's Park	3-2 HT 1-1	Morton
05/12/25 Scotland Championship	Morton	2-1 HT 1-1	Queen's Park
13/09/25 Scotland Championship	Queen's Park	0-0 HT 0-0	Morton
22/03/25 Scotland Championship	Morton	2-1 HT 1-0	Queen's Park
25/01/25 Scotland Championship	Queen's Park	1-2 HT 1-0	Morton

Standings · Scotland Championship

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Stenhousemuir	4	3	1	0	8	2	10
2	Partick	4	2	2	0	4	1	8
3	Raith	4	2	1	1	5	3	7
4	Arbroath	4	2	1	1	3	3	7
5	Livingston	4	2	0	2	4	3	6
6	Ayr	4	1	2	1	4	4	5
7	Dunfermline	4	1	2	1	2	3	5
8	Inverness CT	4	0	3	1	2	4	3
9	Morton	4	0	1	3	2	6	1
10	Queen's Park	4	0	1	3	1	6	1

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Queen's Park	Morton
Partick	0-0 D	0-1 L
Stenhousemuir	0-2 L	0-2 L
Raith	1-2 L	2-3 L
Dunfermline	0-2 L	1-3 L
Ross County	1-0 W	0-4 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 3 L	0 W 0 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Queen's Park (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Queen's Park

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Partick Scotland Championship	0-0	0-0	2	3	D
22/08	Stenhousemuir Scotland Championship	0-0	0-2	4	3	L
08/08	Raith Scotland Championship	0-1	1-2	4	4	L
01/08	Livingston Scotland Championship	0-0	0-2	0	2	L
01/05	Partick Scotland Championship	0-1	1-1	7	1	D
25/04	Dunfermline Scotland Championship	0-1	0-2	1	4	L
18/04	Morton Scotland Championship	0-0	0-0	4	2	D
14/04	Raith Scotland Championship	0-1	0-2	0	6	L
10/04	Ross County Scotland Championship	1-0	1-0	4	6	W
28/03	St Johnstone Scotland Championship	1-0	1-1	2	4	D

Morton

WLLDLDLLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Ayr Scotland Championship	0-1	1-1	4	4	D
22/08	Arbroath Scotland Championship	0-1	1-2	1	3	L
08/08	Stenhousemuir Scotland Championship	0-0	0-2	4	2	L
01/08	Partick Scotland Championship	0-0	0-1	4	5	L
01/05	Airdrieonians Scotland Championship	0-0	1-1	4	8	D
25/04	Ross County Scotland Championship	0-2	0-4	4	3	L
18/04	Queen's Park Scotland Championship	0-0	0-0	11	2	D
11/04	Raith Scotland Championship	1-0	2-3	2	2	L
04/04	Dunfermline Scotland Championship	1-0	1-3	4	1	L
28/03	Arbroath Scotland Championship	2-1	2-1	1	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Queen's Park vs Morton?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Queen's Park win (41%). Probabilities: Queen's Park 41%, draw 30%, Morton 30%.

How many goals are expected in Queen's Park vs Morton?

The model expects 2.15 goals (Queen's Park 1.18 · Morton 0.97), with a 58% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Queen's Park vs Morton?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.