Prediction: Morton vs Dunfermline
Team pages: Morton · Dunfermline
- Dunfermline3-1Morton
- Morton2-0Dunfermline
- Dunfermline1-0Morton
- Morton0-0Dunfermline
- Morton2-0Dunfermline
- Dunfermline2-1Morton
| Morton | Draw | Dunfermline | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 18% | 29% | 53% |
| Market | 20% | 26% | 54% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Dunfermline (rating 1371 vs 1534).
- H2H favours Dunfermline: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 6.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Morton | Dunfermline | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.7 / 2 | 0.9 / 0.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.2 / 0.7 | 0.4 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/50/40% | 20/60/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.1 / 4.7 | 2.6 / 5.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.4 / 0.2 | 2.8 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Morton 2–1–3 Dunfermline
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/04/26 Scotland Championship | Dunfermline | 3-1 HT 0-1 | Morton |
| 17/02/26 Scotland Championship | Morton | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Dunfermline |
| 22/11/25 Scotland Championship | Dunfermline | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Morton |
| 02/08/25 Scotland Championship | Morton | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Dunfermline |
| 02/05/25 Scotland Championship | Morton | 2-0 HT 2-0 | Dunfermline |
| 01/03/25 Scotland Championship | Dunfermline | 2-1 HT 0-1 | Morton |
Standings · Scotland Championship
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Raith | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 3 | 13 |
| 2 | Stenhousemuir | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 2 | 13 |
| 3 | Partick | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 11 |
| 4 | Livingston | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 5 | 9 |
| 5 | Dunfermline | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 9 |
| 6 | Arbroath | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 8 |
| 7 | Inverness CT | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 6 |
| 8 | Ayr | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 5 |
| 9 | Queen's Park | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 4 |
| 10 | Morton | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 12 | 1 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Morton | Dunfermline |
|---|---|---|
| Livingston | 1-4 L | 0-2 L |
| Queen's Park | 1-2 L | 2-0 W |
| Ayr | 1-1 D | 1-1 D |
| Arbroath | 1-2 L | 1-1 D |
| Airdrieonians | 1-1 D | 2-2 D |
| Raith | 2-3 L | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 0 W 2 D 4 L | 2 W 3 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Dunfermline (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Morton
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/09 | Livingston Scotland Championship |
0-2 | 1-4 | 7 | 2 | L |
| 05/09 | Queen's Park Scotland Championship |
1-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 29/08 | Ayr Scotland Championship |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 22/08 | Arbroath Scotland Championship |
0-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 08/08 | Stenhousemuir Scotland Championship |
0-0 | 0-2 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 01/08 | Partick Scotland Championship |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 01/05 | Airdrieonians Scotland Championship |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 8 | D |
| 25/04 | Ross County Scotland Championship |
0-2 | 0-4 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 18/04 | Queen's Park Scotland Championship |
0-0 | 0-0 | 11 | 2 | D |
| 11/04 | Raith Scotland Championship |
1-0 | 2-3 | 2 | 2 | L |
Dunfermline
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/09 | Queen's Park Scotland Championship |
2-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 05/09 | Arbroath Scotland Championship |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 28/08 | Raith Scotland Championship |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 22/08 | Livingston Scotland Championship |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 08/08 | Ayr Scotland Championship |
1-1 | 1-1 | 12 | 1 | D |
| 01/08 | Inverness CT Scotland Championship |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | D |
| 01/05 | Arbroath Scotland Championship |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 25/04 | Queen's Park Scotland Championship |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 21/04 | St Johnstone Scotland Championship |
0-0 | 0-2 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 14/04 | Airdrieonians Scotland Championship |
0-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 3 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Morton vs Dunfermline?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Dunfermline win (54%). Probabilities: Morton 19%, draw 27%, Dunfermline 54%.
How many goals are expected in Morton vs Dunfermline?
The model expects 2.23 goals (Morton 0.76 · Dunfermline 1.47), with a 56% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Morton vs Dunfermline?
The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-1.