Prediction: Morton vs Raith
- Raith3-2Morton
- Morton0-0Raith
- Raith1-1Morton
- Morton0-1Raith
- Raith1-1Morton
- Morton3-3Raith
| Morton | Draw | Raith | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 15% | 28% | 57% |
| Market | 17% | 24% | 59% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Raith (rating 1374 vs 1541).
- H2H favours Raith: 2-4-0.
- Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Morton | Raith | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.5 / 2 | 1.4 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.1 / 0.8 | 0.8 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 0/50/50% | 40/40/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.9 / 3.6 | 1 / 3.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.5 / 0.1 | 3.5 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Morton 0–4–2 Raith
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/04/26 Scotland Championship | Raith | 3-2 HT 0-1 | Morton |
| 14/02/26 Scotland Championship | Morton | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Raith |
| 01/11/25 Scotland Championship | Raith | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Morton |
| 06/09/25 Scotland Championship | Morton | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Raith |
| 26/04/25 Scotland Championship | Raith | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Morton |
| 25/03/25 Scotland Championship | Morton | 3-3 HT 1-2 | Raith |
Standings · Scotland Championship
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stenhousemuir | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 2 | 22 |
| 2 | Raith | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 5 | 14 |
| 3 | Livingston | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 7 | 13 |
| 4 | Partick | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 12 |
| 5 | Dunfermline | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 12 |
| 6 | Arbroath | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 11 |
| 7 | Inverness CT | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 9 | 10 |
| 8 | Ayr | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 9 | 8 |
| 9 | Queen's Park | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 13 | 4 |
| 10 | Morton | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 15 | 1 |
Common opponents 9 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Morton | Raith |
|---|---|---|
| Inverness CT | 0-2 L | 2-0 W |
| Dunfermline | 0-1 L | 0-1 L |
| Livingston | 1-4 L | 0-2 L |
| Queen's Park | 1-2 L | 2-1 W |
| Ayr | 1-1 D | 2-0 W |
| Arbroath | 1-2 L | 4-0 W |
| Stenhousemuir | 0-2 L | 1-1 D |
| Partick | 0-1 L | 0-0 D |
| Ross County | 0-4 L | 3-2 W |
| Record vs common | 0 W 1 D 8 L | 5 W 2 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Raith (8 of 9 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Morton
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/09 | Inverness CT Scotland Championship |
0-1 | 0-2 | 0 | 3 | L |
| 19/09 | Dunfermline Scotland Championship |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 11/09 | Livingston Scotland Championship |
0-2 | 1-4 | 7 | 2 | L |
| 05/09 | Queen's Park Scotland Championship |
1-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 29/08 | Ayr Scotland Championship |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 22/08 | Arbroath Scotland Championship |
0-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 08/08 | Stenhousemuir Scotland Championship |
0-0 | 0-2 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 01/08 | Partick Scotland Championship |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 01/05 | Airdrieonians Scotland Championship |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 8 | D |
| 25/04 | Ross County Scotland Championship |
0-2 | 0-4 | 4 | 3 | L |
Raith
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/09 | Livingston Scotland Championship |
0-0 | 0-2 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 19/09 | Partick Scotland Championship |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 12/09 | Arbroath Scotland Championship |
3-0 | 4-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 05/09 | Inverness CT Scotland Championship |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 28/08 | Dunfermline Scotland Championship |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 22/08 | Ayr Scotland Championship |
2-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 08/08 | Queen's Park Scotland Championship |
1-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 01/08 | Stenhousemuir Scotland Championship |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 01/05 | Ross County Scotland Championship |
0-1 | 3-2 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 24/04 | St Johnstone Scotland Championship |
0-2 | 0-2 | 0 | 6 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Morton vs Raith?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Raith win (58%). Probabilities: Morton 16%, draw 26%, Raith 58%.
How many goals are expected in Morton vs Raith?
The model expects 2.25 goals (Morton 0.7 · Raith 1.56), with a 56% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Morton vs Raith?
The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-1.