Football · Scotland Championship · 01/08, 16:00
Prediction: Ayr vs Arbroath
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.16Total
Ayr1.12
Arbroath1.04
1X2
Ayr
Draw
Arbroath
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 63%
Both teams to score 50%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Ayr
7-0-3 (W-D-L)
Arbroath
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Ayr
3–3–0
Arbroath
(6 last)
- Ayr1-0Arbroath
- Arbroath1-1Ayr
- Ayr1-1Arbroath
- Arbroath1-1Ayr
- Ayr4-0Arbroath
- Ayr5-0Arbroath
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Ayr 1566 · Arbroath 1474
| Ayr | Draw | Arbroath | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 36% | 32% | 32% |
| Market | 37% | 30% | 33% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.16 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 59%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ayr (rating 1566 vs 1474).
- H2H favours Ayr: 3-3-0.
- Cards-heavy: 5.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Ayr | Arbroath | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2 / 0.9 | 0.9 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.3 | 0.5 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 44/33/22% | 20/40/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.7 / 4.9 | 1.9 / 5.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.6 / 0 | 3.2 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Ayr 3–3–0 Arbroath
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/04/26 Scotland Championship | Ayr | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Arbroath |
| 03/03/26 Scotland Championship | Arbroath | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Ayr |
| 15/11/25 Scotland Championship | Ayr | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Arbroath |
| 01/08/25 Scotland Championship | Arbroath | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Ayr |
| 19/07/25 Scotland League Cup | Ayr | 4-0 HT 1-0 | Arbroath |
| 13/04/24 Scotland Championship | Ayr | 5-0 HT 3-0 | Arbroath |
Standings · Scotland Championship
Swipe the table sideways →
| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arbroath | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Ayr | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Dunfermline | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Morton | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Inverness CT | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Livingston | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Partick | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Queen's Park | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Raith | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Stenhousemuir | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Ayr
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/07 | Alloa Scotland League Cup |
3-0 | 4-1 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 18/07 | FC Edinburgh Scotland League Cup |
0-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 14/07 | Falkirk Scotland League Cup |
1-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 11/07 | Stranraer Scotland League Cup |
0-1 | 3-2 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 04/07 | Airdrieonians UK Friendlies |
0-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 0 | W |
| 30/06 | Dumbarton UK Friendlies |
2-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 0 | W |
| 27/06 | Glenafton Athletic FC Club Friendly List |
– | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 01/05 | St Johnstone Scotland Championship |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 2 | L |
| 25/04 | Airdrieonians Scotland Championship |
1-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 18/04 | Ross County Scotland Championship |
1-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 5 | L |
Arbroath
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/07 | Stirling Scotland League Cup |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 21/07 | Montrose Scotland League Cup |
0-2 | 0-2 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 18/07 | Dundee Utd Scotland League Cup |
0-1 | 0-3 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 11/07 | Spartans Scotland League Cup |
1-0 | 2-1 | 8 | 4 | W |
| 04/07 | Brechin Club Friendly List |
3-0 | 4-1 | – | – | W |
| 27/06 | St Mirren UK Friendlies |
1-2 | 2-4 | 2 | 0 | L |
| 08/05 | Dunfermline Scotland Premiership Play-Offs |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 7 | D |
| 05/05 | Dunfermline Scotland Premiership Play-Offs |
0-1 | 0-1 | 0 | 5 | L |
| 01/05 | Dunfermline Scotland Championship |
0-0 | 0-0 | 11 | 2 | D |
| 25/04 | Partick Scotland Championship |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Ayr vs Arbroath?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Ayr win (37%). Probabilities: Ayr 37%, draw 31%, Arbroath 33%.
How many goals are expected in Ayr vs Arbroath?
The model expects 2.16 goals (Ayr 1.12 · Arbroath 1.04), with a 52% chance of over 2 goals.
Will both teams score in Ayr vs Arbroath?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.