Football · Scotland Championship · 08/08, 16:00
Prediction: Arbroath vs Inverness CT
Team pages: Arbroath · Inverness CT
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.23Total
Arbroath1.02
Inverness CT1.21
1X2
Arbroath
Draw
Inverness CT
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 62%
Both teams to score 50%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Arbroath
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Inverness CT
6-2-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Arbroath
3–1–2
Inverness CT
(6 last)
- Inverness CT3-0Arbroath
- Arbroath3-0Inverness CT
- Inverness CT0-2Arbroath
- Arbroath1-0Inverness CT
- Inverness CT0-0Arbroath
- Inverness CT2-1Arbroath
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Arbroath 1482 · Inverness CT 1558
| Arbroath | Draw | Inverness CT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 29% | 31% | 39% |
| Market | 32% | 26% | 42% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.23 goals · Bet365 line 2.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 56%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Inverness CT (rating 1482 vs 1558).
- H2H favours Arbroath: 3-1-2.
- High corners: 10.8 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 4.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Arbroath | Inverness CT | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.9 / 1.4 | 1.5 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.7 | 0.9 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/30/50% | 60/20/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 5.6 | 2.4 / 5.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.1 / 0.1 | 1.8 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Arbroath 3–1–2 Inverness CT
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/04/25 Scotland League One | Inverness CT | 3-0 HT 2-0 | Arbroath |
| 08/02/25 Scotland League One | Arbroath | 3-0 HT 2-0 | Inverness CT |
| 14/12/24 Scotland League One | Inverness CT | 0-2 HT 0-0 | Arbroath |
| 05/10/24 Scotland League One | Arbroath | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Inverness CT |
| 23/07/24 Scotland League Cup | Inverness CT | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Arbroath |
| 06/04/24 Scotland Championship | Inverness CT | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Arbroath |
Standings · Scotland Championship
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ayr | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 1 | Livingston | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Partick | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | Raith | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 4 | Stenhousemuir | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 6 | Dunfermline | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 6 | Inverness CT | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 8 | Morton | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 9 | Arbroath | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 9 | Queen's Park | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Arbroath
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08 | Ayr Scotland Championship |
0-1 | 0-2 | 7 | 0 | L |
| 25/07 | Stirling Scotland League Cup |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 21/07 | Montrose Scotland League Cup |
0-2 | 0-2 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 18/07 | Dundee Utd Scotland League Cup |
0-1 | 0-3 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 11/07 | Spartans Scotland League Cup |
1-0 | 2-1 | 8 | 4 | W |
| 04/07 | Brechin Club Friendly List |
3-0 | 4-1 | – | – | W |
| 27/06 | St Mirren UK Friendlies |
1-2 | 2-4 | 2 | 0 | L |
| 08/05 | Dunfermline Scotland Premiership Play-Offs |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 7 | D |
| 05/05 | Dunfermline Scotland Premiership Play-Offs |
0-1 | 0-1 | 0 | 5 | L |
| 01/05 | Dunfermline Scotland Championship |
0-0 | 0-0 | 11 | 2 | D |
Inverness CT
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08 | Dunfermline Scotland Championship |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 25/07 | Morton Scotland League Cup |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 21/07 | St Johnstone Scotland League Cup |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 18/07 | Linlithgow Rose Scotland League Cup |
2-0 | 2-0 | 13 | 0 | W |
| 11/07 | East Fife Scotland League Cup |
0-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 6 | D |
| 07/07 | Cove Rangers UK Friendlies |
1-1 | 4-1 | 3 | 0 | W |
| 04/07 | Ross County UK Friendlies |
0-1 | 0-4 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 03/07 | Forres Mechanics Club Friendly List |
1-0 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 27/06 | Clachnacuddin UK Friendlies |
1-0 | 3-1 | 2 | 0 | W |
| 02/05 | Hamilton Scotland League One |
2-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 2 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Arbroath vs Inverness CT?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Inverness CT win (41%). Probabilities: Arbroath 31%, draw 29%, Inverness CT 41%.
How many goals are expected in Arbroath vs Inverness CT?
The model expects 2.23 goals (Arbroath 1.02 · Inverness CT 1.21), with a 51% chance of under 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Arbroath vs Inverness CT?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.