Football · Switzerland Challenge League · 31/08, 20:15
Prediction: Wil 1900 vs Aarau
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.42Total
Wil 19001.48
Aarau1.94
1X2
Wil 1900
Draw
Aarau
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 55%
Both teams to score 59%
Most likely score
1-1 10%
Recent form · 10 last
Wil 1900
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Aarau
5-3-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Wil 1900
1–3–2
Aarau
(6 last)
- Wil 19002-2Aarau
- Aarau2-2Wil 1900
- Aarau2-0Wil 1900
- Wil 19001-3Aarau
- Aarau2-4Wil 1900
- Wil 19002-2Aarau
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Wil 1900 1482 · Aarau 1521
| Wil 1900 | Draw | Aarau | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 28% | 24% | 48% |
| Market | 27% | 26% | 47% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.42 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 73%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Aarau: 2-3-1.
- Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Wil 1900 | Aarau | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 2.2 | 2 / 1.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 1.3 | 1.2 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/40/40% | 50/30/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.3 / 3.3 | 2.7 / 5.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.8 / 0.2 | 4.7 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Wil 1900 1–3–2 Aarau
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/04/26 Switzerland Challenge League | Wil 1900 | 2-2 HT 2-1 | Aarau |
| 07/02/26 Switzerland Challenge League | Aarau | 2-2 HT 0-0 | Wil 1900 |
| 24/10/25 Switzerland Challenge League | Aarau | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Wil 1900 |
| 01/08/25 Switzerland Challenge League | Wil 1900 | 1-3 HT 0-2 | Aarau |
| 09/05/25 Switzerland Challenge League | Aarau | 2-4 HT 2-2 | Wil 1900 |
| 16/03/25 Switzerland Challenge League | Wil 1900 | 2-2 HT 0-2 | Aarau |
Standings · Switzerland Challenge League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 11 |
| 2 | Kriens | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 5 | 9 |
| 3 | Yverdon Sport FC | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 5 | 9 |
| 4 | Neuchatel Xamax | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 7 | 9 |
| 5 | Winterthur | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 5 | 8 |
| 6 | Etoile Carouge | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 8 |
| 7 | Aarau | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 7 |
| 8 | Wil 1900 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 14 | 4 |
| 9 | FC Rapperswil-Jona | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 12 | 3 |
| 10 | Stade Nyonnais | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 1 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Wil 1900 | Aarau |
|---|---|---|
| Yverdon Sport FC | 1-1 D | 1-2 L |
| Neuchatel Xamax | 1-2 L | 2-1 W |
| FC Vaduz | 1-3 L | 2-1 W |
| Stade Nyonnais | 1-0 W | 2-1 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 2 L | 3 W 0 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Aarau (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Wil 1900
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/08 | Yverdon Sport FC Switzerland Challenge League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 22/08 | Kriens Switzerland Challenge League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 07/08 | Winterthur Switzerland Challenge League |
0-3 | 0-5 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 31/07 | Neuchatel Xamax Switzerland Challenge League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 24/07 | FC Rapperswil-Jona Switzerland Challenge League |
3-2 | 5-4 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 15/05 | FC Vaduz Switzerland Challenge League |
0-2 | 1-3 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 11/05 | AC Bellinzona Switzerland Challenge League |
1-1 | 4-2 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 08/05 | Yverdon Sport FC Switzerland Challenge League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 01/05 | Stade Nyonnais Switzerland Challenge League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 25/04 | Aarau Switzerland Challenge League |
2-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 2 | D |
Aarau
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/08 | Neuchatel Xamax Switzerland Challenge League |
0-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 23/08 | Yverdon Sport FC Switzerland Challenge League |
0-2 | 1-2 | 11 | 5 | L |
| 07/08 | Stade Nyonnais Switzerland Challenge League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 8 | 7 | W |
| 01/08 | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy Switzerland Challenge League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 24/07 | Etoile Carouge Switzerland Challenge League |
0-0 | 0-3 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 15/05 | Yverdon Sport FC Switzerland Challenge League |
2-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 11/05 | FC Vaduz Switzerland Challenge League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 8 | W |
| 08/05 | Stade Nyonnais Switzerland Challenge League |
5-1 | 5-1 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 01/05 | Neuchatel Xamax Switzerland Challenge League |
1-0 | 3-1 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 25/04 | Wil 1900 Switzerland Challenge League |
1-2 | 2-2 | 4 | 2 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Wil 1900 vs Aarau?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Aarau win (47%). Probabilities: Wil 1900 28%, draw 25%, Aarau 47%.
How many goals are expected in Wil 1900 vs Aarau?
The model expects 3.42 goals (Wil 1900 1.48 · Aarau 1.94), with a 55% chance of over 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Wil 1900 vs Aarau?
The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.