Football · Switzerland Challenge League · 04/09, 20:15

Prediction: Etoile Carouge vs Wil 1900

Team pages: Etoile Carouge · Wil 1900

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.11Total

Etoile Carouge1.93

Wil 19001.18

1X2

54% 24% 22%

Etoile Carouge Draw Wil 1900

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Etoile Carouge 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

WLLDWDLDWL

Wil 1900 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

WLWLWLLLDD

Head-to-head

Etoile Carouge 2–3–1 Wil 1900 (6 last)

Etoile Carouge2-0Wil 1900
Wil 19001-3Etoile Carouge
Etoile Carouge0-0Wil 1900
Wil 19001-0Etoile Carouge
Wil 19002-2Etoile Carouge
Etoile Carouge1-1Wil 1900

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Etoile Carouge 1503 · Wil 1900 1468

	Etoile Carouge	Draw	Wil 1900
Our model	54%	24%	22%
Market	54%	24%	22%

Estimated total (ours) 3.11 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Etoile Carouge: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Etoile Carouge	Wil 1900
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.6	1.5 / 2.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 1.1	0.6 / 1.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/50/50%	10/40/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.2 / 5.7	1.5 / 3.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.1	3 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.70

X3.80

24.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.90

2 (+0.75)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 31.82

Under 31.98

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 3.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 09:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.70 → 1.70	Bet365 1.70
X	3.80 → 3.80	Pinn 4.16 ★
2	4.10 → 4.10	Pinn 4.13

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.5% Pinnacle margin 7.1%

Time*	1	X	2
09:11 +5’	1.70	3.80	4.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
20:37 +1’	1.68	4.11	4.07
22:46	1.70▲	4.16▲	4.13▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Etoile Carouge 2–3–1 Wil 1900

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/04/26 Switzerland Challenge League	Etoile Carouge	2-0 HT 2-0	Wil 1900
22/03/26 Switzerland Challenge League	Wil 1900	1-3 HT 1-2	Etoile Carouge
05/12/25 Switzerland Challenge League	Etoile Carouge	0-0 HT 0-0	Wil 1900
08/08/25 Switzerland Challenge League	Wil 1900	1-0 HT 0-0	Etoile Carouge
13/04/25 Switzerland Challenge League	Wil 1900	2-2 HT 2-1	Etoile Carouge
24/01/25 Switzerland Challenge League	Etoile Carouge	1-1 HT 1-1	Wil 1900

Standings · Switzerland Challenge League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Stade Lausanne-Ouchy	6	4	2	0	11	3	14
2	Yverdon Sport FC	6	3	3	0	10	6	12
3	Kriens	6	3	1	2	10	6	10
4	Winterthur	6	2	3	1	12	7	9
5	Neuchatel Xamax	6	3	0	3	9	9	9
6	Etoile Carouge	6	2	2	2	6	6	8
7	Aarau	6	2	2	2	8	10	8
8	Wil 1900	6	1	2	3	9	16	5
9	FC Rapperswil-Jona	6	1	1	4	8	13	4
10	Stade Nyonnais	6	0	2	4	4	11	2

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Etoile Carouge	Wil 1900
FC Rapperswil-Jona	2-1 W	5-4 W
Stade Nyonnais	0-0 D	1-0 W
Neuchatel Xamax	0-1 L	1-2 L
Yverdon Sport FC	1-1 D	1-1 D
Aarau	3-0 W	2-2 D
AC Bellinzona	2-2 D	4-2 W
FC Vaduz	1-2 L	1-3 L
Record vs common	2 W 3 D 2 L	3 W 2 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Etoile Carouge

WLLDWDLDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/09	Stade Lausanne-Ouchy Switzerland Challenge League	0-1	0-3	5	6	L
28/08	FC Rapperswil-Jona Switzerland Challenge League	1-1	2-1	8	0	W
21/08	Stade Nyonnais Switzerland Challenge League	0-0	0-0	11	6	D
07/08	Neuchatel Xamax Switzerland Challenge League	0-1	0-1	3	3	L
31/07	Yverdon Sport FC Switzerland Challenge League	1-1	1-1	4	3	D
24/07	Aarau Switzerland Challenge League	0-0	3-0	1	4	W
15/05	AC Bellinzona Switzerland Challenge League	0-1	2-2	10	2	D
11/05	Neuchatel Xamax Switzerland Challenge League	0-2	0-3	6	1	L
08/05	FC Vaduz Switzerland Challenge League	1-2	1-2	6	6	L
03/05	Yverdon Sport FC Switzerland Challenge League	2-2	5-3	3	4	W

Wil 1900

WLWLWLLLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/08	Aarau Switzerland Challenge League	0-2	2-2	5	5	D
28/08	Yverdon Sport FC Switzerland Challenge League	1-1	1-1	3	4	D
22/08	Kriens Switzerland Challenge League	0-1	0-2	2	1	L
07/08	Winterthur Switzerland Challenge League	0-3	0-5	4	3	L
31/07	Neuchatel Xamax Switzerland Challenge League	1-1	1-2	4	3	L
24/07	FC Rapperswil-Jona Switzerland Challenge League	3-2	5-4	4	3	W
15/05	FC Vaduz Switzerland Challenge League	0-2	1-3	1	4	L
11/05	AC Bellinzona Switzerland Challenge League	1-1	4-2	5	4	W
08/05	Yverdon Sport FC Switzerland Challenge League	0-1	0-1	4	3	L
01/05	Stade Nyonnais Switzerland Challenge League	0-0	1-0	3	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Etoile Carouge vs Wil 1900?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Etoile Carouge win (54%). Probabilities: Etoile Carouge 54%, draw 24%, Wil 1900 22%.

How many goals are expected in Etoile Carouge vs Wil 1900?

The model expects 3.11 goals (Etoile Carouge 1.93 · Wil 1900 1.18), with a 50% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Etoile Carouge vs Wil 1900?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.