Football · Switzerland Challenge League · 04/09, 19:30

Prediction: Aarau vs FC Rapperswil-Jona

Team pages: Aarau · FC Rapperswil-Jona

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.17Total

Aarau2.59

FC Rapperswil-Jona1.58

1X2

58% 21% 21%

Aarau Draw FC Rapperswil-Jona

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

2-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

Aarau 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WWWDLDWLWD

FC Rapperswil-Jona 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

WLLWLWLLLD

Head-to-head

Aarau 4–1–1 FC Rapperswil-Jona (6 last)

FC Rapperswil-Jona4-5Aarau
Aarau5-3FC Rapperswil-Jona
Aarau2-1FC Rapperswil-Jona
FC Rapperswil-Jona0-1Aarau
FC Rapperswil-Jona1-1Aarau
FC Rapperswil-Jona2-1Aarau

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Aarau 1537 · FC Rapperswil-Jona 1455

	Aarau	Draw	FC Rapperswil-Jona
Our model	59%	19%	22%
Market	57%	22%	20%

Estimated total (ours) 4.17 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.7

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 79%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Aarau (rating 1537 vs 1455).
H2H favours Aarau: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Aarau	FC Rapperswil-Jona
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 1.5	1.7 / 2.2
Goals for / against (HT)	1.3 / 0.5	1 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/30/10%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 5.3	1.9 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.9 / 0.2	3.7 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.60

X4.10

24.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.98

2 (+1)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 3.52.00

Under 3.51.80

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 09:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.60 → 1.60	Pinn 1.61
X	4.10 → 4.10	Pinn 4.44 ★
2	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.1% Pinnacle margin 7.2%

Time*	1	X	2
08:56 +20’	1.60	4.10	4.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
20:34 +2’	1.59	4.37	4.36
22:44 +1’	1.61▲	4.44▲	4.43▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Aarau 4–1–1 FC Rapperswil-Jona

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
04/04/26 Switzerland Challenge League	FC Rapperswil-Jona	4-5 HT 3-3	Aarau
27/02/26 Switzerland Challenge League	Aarau	5-3 HT 1-2	FC Rapperswil-Jona
01/11/25 Switzerland Challenge League	Aarau	2-1 HT 1-1	FC Rapperswil-Jona
29/08/25 Switzerland Challenge League	FC Rapperswil-Jona	0-1 HT 0-0	Aarau
19/03/25 Club Friendly List	FC Rapperswil-Jona	1-1 HT 0-1	Aarau
30/06/21 Club Friendly List	FC Rapperswil-Jona	2-1 HT 1-0	Aarau

Standings · Switzerland Challenge League

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Stade Lausanne-Ouchy	6	4	2	0	11	3	14
2	Yverdon Sport FC	6	3	3	0	10	6	12
3	Kriens	6	3	1	2	10	6	10
4	Winterthur	6	2	3	1	12	7	9
5	Neuchatel Xamax	6	3	0	3	9	9	9
6	Etoile Carouge	6	2	2	2	6	6	8
7	Aarau	6	2	2	2	8	10	8
8	Wil 1900	6	1	2	3	9	16	5
9	FC Rapperswil-Jona	6	1	1	4	8	13	4
10	Stade Nyonnais	6	0	2	4	4	11	2

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Aarau	FC Rapperswil-Jona
Wil 1900	2-2 D	4-5 L
Neuchatel Xamax	2-1 W	2-3 L
Yverdon Sport FC	1-2 L	1-3 L
Stade Nyonnais	2-1 W	2-1 W
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy	1-1 D	0-2 L
Etoile Carouge	0-3 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 2 L	1 W 0 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Aarau (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Aarau

WWWDLDWLWD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/08	Wil 1900 Switzerland Challenge League	2-0	2-2	3	5	D
28/08	Neuchatel Xamax Switzerland Challenge League	0-0	2-1	4	6	W
23/08	Yverdon Sport FC Switzerland Challenge League	0-2	1-2	11	5	L
07/08	Stade Nyonnais Switzerland Challenge League	1-0	2-1	8	7	W
01/08	Stade Lausanne-Ouchy Switzerland Challenge League	1-0	1-1	3	6	D
24/07	Etoile Carouge Switzerland Challenge League	0-0	0-3	1	4	L
15/05	Yverdon Sport FC Switzerland Challenge League	2-1	2-2	5	4	D
11/05	FC Vaduz Switzerland Challenge League	1-1	2-1	5	8	W
08/05	Stade Nyonnais Switzerland Challenge League	5-1	5-1	6	1	W
01/05	Neuchatel Xamax Switzerland Challenge League	1-0	3-1	7	5	W

FC Rapperswil-Jona

WLLWLWLLLD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/09	Kriens Switzerland Challenge League	0-0	1-1	8	10	D
28/08	Etoile Carouge Switzerland Challenge League	1-1	1-2	4	0	L
21/08	Winterthur Switzerland Challenge League	0-1	0-2	2	4	L
07/08	Stade Lausanne-Ouchy Switzerland Challenge League	0-1	0-2	4	3	L
31/07	Stade Nyonnais Switzerland Challenge League	1-0	2-1	7	4	W
24/07	Wil 1900 Switzerland Challenge League	2-3	4-5	7	3	L
15/05	Stade Nyonnais Switzerland Challenge League	1-1	2-1	3	3	W
11/05	Yverdon Sport FC Switzerland Challenge League	0-0	1-3	7	4	L
08/05	Neuchatel Xamax Switzerland Challenge League	2-0	2-3	2	4	L
03/05	AC Bellinzona Switzerland Challenge League	3-1	4-2	3	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Aarau vs FC Rapperswil-Jona?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Aarau win (58%). Probabilities: Aarau 58%, draw 21%, FC Rapperswil-Jona 21%.

How many goals are expected in Aarau vs FC Rapperswil-Jona?

The model expects 4.17 goals (Aarau 2.59 · FC Rapperswil-Jona 1.58), with a 53% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Aarau vs FC Rapperswil-Jona?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.