Football · Switzerland Super League · 24/10, 18:00

Prediction: FC Zurich vs Lucerne

Team pages: FC Zurich · Lucerne

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.66Total

FC Zurich1.78

Lucerne1.88

1X2

36% 24% 40%

FC Zurich Draw Lucerne

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Zurich 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LWLLWLDWDW

Lucerne 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LLDWDWDLWL

Head-to-head

FC Zurich 2–1–3 Lucerne (6 last)

Lucerne1-0FC Zurich
FC Zurich1-4Lucerne
FC Zurich3-2Lucerne
Lucerne1-1FC Zurich
FC Zurich3-2Lucerne
Lucerne3-1FC Zurich

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Zurich 1498 · Lucerne 1533

	FC Zurich	Draw	Lucerne
Our model	36%	23%	40%
Market	36%	24%	40%

Estimated total (ours) 3.66 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Lucerne: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 9.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Zurich	Lucerne
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 2.2	1.7 / 2.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.8	0.6 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 4.4	2.1 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0.2	5.3 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.55

X3.90

22.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.98

2 (0)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.82

Under 3.51.98

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 3.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:31

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.55 → 2.55	Bet365 2.55
X	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
2	2.30 → 2.30	Pinn 2.49 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.3% Pinnacle margin 5%

Time*	1	X	2
23:57 +34’	2.55	3.90	2.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
02:03 +1349’	2.67	3.90	2.38
07:51 +33’	2.55▼	3.90	2.49▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Zurich 2–1–3 Lucerne

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/05/26 Switzerland Super League	Lucerne	1-0 HT 0-0	FC Zurich
14/02/26 Switzerland Super League	FC Zurich	1-4 HT 0-2	Lucerne
08/11/25 Switzerland Super League	FC Zurich	3-2 HT 0-2	Lucerne
03/08/25 Switzerland Super League	Lucerne	1-1 HT 0-0	FC Zurich
15/03/25 Switzerland Super League	FC Zurich	3-2 HT 2-1	Lucerne
26/01/25 Switzerland Super League	Lucerne	3-1 HT 2-0	FC Zurich

Standings · Switzerland Super League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Lugano	10	9	1	0	31	7	28
2	Young Boys	10	6	4	0	33	18	22
3	FC Sion	10	6	1	3	23	17	19
4	St Gallen	10	5	1	4	17	19	16
5	FC Zurich	10	4	2	4	18	22	14
6	Servette	10	4	1	5	14	13	13
7	Basel	10	4	1	5	17	20	13
8	Lucerne	10	3	3	4	17	22	12
9	FC Thun	10	3	1	6	17	27	10
10	FC Vaduz	10	3	0	7	21	21	9
11	Grasshoppers	10	2	2	6	13	26	8
12	FC Lausanne-Sport	10	1	3	6	7	16	6

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Zurich	Lucerne
FC Thun	4-2 W	1-3 L
FC Sion	1-1 D	0-3 L
FC Vaduz	2-1 W	2-1 W
Grasshoppers	2-2 D	5-1 W
Young Boys	2-4 L	3-3 D
FC Lausanne-Sport	3-2 W	1-0 W
Basel	1-2 L	2-4 L
Lugano	0-5 L	0-4 L
Servette	2-1 W	1-1 D
St Gallen	1-2 L	2-2 D
Record vs common	4 W 2 D 4 L	3 W 3 D 4 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Zurich

LWLLWLDWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	FC Thun Switzerland Super League	2-1	4-2	5	3	W
19/09	FC Sion Switzerland Super League	1-1	1-1	5	1	D
13/09	FC Vaduz Switzerland Super League	0-1	2-1	7	2	W
05/09	Grasshoppers Switzerland Super League	0-0	2-2	4	8	D
01/09	Young Boys Switzerland Super League	1-2	2-4	3	5	L
29/08	FC Lausanne-Sport Switzerland Super League	0-1	3-2	6	5	W
22/08	Basel Switzerland Super League	1-0	1-2	4	11	L
09/08	Lugano Switzerland Super League	0-2	0-5	2	3	L
01/08	Servette Switzerland Super League	1-0	2-1	4	5	W
26/07	St Gallen Switzerland Super League	0-0	1-2	4	4	L

Lucerne

LLDWDWDLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Lugano Switzerland Super League	0-1	0-4	7	5	L
19/09	Grasshoppers Switzerland Super League	2-0	5-1	5	4	W
13/09	Basel Switzerland Super League	1-2	2-4	6	3	L
05/09	Young Boys Switzerland Super League	0-1	3-3	2	8	D
02/09	FC Vaduz Switzerland Super League	0-0	2-1	3	9	W
29/08	Servette Switzerland Super League	1-1	1-1	1	6	D
22/08	FC Lausanne-Sport Switzerland Super League	1-0	1-0	7	6	W
09/08	St Gallen Switzerland Super League	0-1	2-2	9	8	D
02/08	FC Sion Switzerland Super League	0-1	0-3	2	2	L
25/07	FC Thun Switzerland Super League	1-1	1-3	12	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Zurich vs Lucerne?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Lucerne win (40%). Probabilities: FC Zurich 36%, draw 24%, Lucerne 40%.

How many goals are expected in FC Zurich vs Lucerne?

The model expects 3.66 goals (FC Zurich 1.78 · Lucerne 1.88), with a 51% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Zurich vs Lucerne?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.