Football · Switzerland Super League · 01/11, 16:30
Prediction: Lugano vs Basel
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.84Total
Lugano2.42
Basel1.41
1X2
Lugano
Draw
Basel
Markets
Over 3.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 60%
Most likely score
2-1 9%
Recent form · 10 last
Lugano
9-1-0 (W-D-L)
Basel
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Lugano
4–1–1
Basel
(6 last)
- Basel1-3Lugano
- Lugano4-0Basel
- Basel1-1Lugano
- Basel0-1Lugano
- Lugano3-1Basel
- Lugano2-5Basel
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Lugano 1654 · Basel 1460
| Lugano | Draw | Basel | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 59% | 20% | 21% |
| Market | 59% | 21% | 21% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.84 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.6
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 71%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lugano (rating 1654 vs 1460).
- H2H favours Lugano: 4-1-1.
- Cards-heavy: 9.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Lugano | Basel | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 3.2 / 0.8 | 1.6 / 2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.1 / 0.4 | 0.8 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/30/20% | 30/40/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.8 / 5.3 | 1.9 / 4.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.4 / 0.2 | 5.2 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Lugano 4–1–1 Basel
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09/26 Switzerland Super League | Basel | 1-3 HT 0-0 | Lugano |
| 17/05/26 Switzerland Super League | Lugano | 4-0 HT 2-0 | Basel |
| 15/02/26 Switzerland Super League | Basel | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Lugano |
| 09/11/25 Switzerland Super League | Basel | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Lugano |
| 10/08/25 Switzerland Super League | Lugano | 3-1 HT 2-0 | Basel |
| 10/05/25 Switzerland Super League | Lugano | 2-5 HT 1-1 | Basel |
Standings · Switzerland Super League
Swipe the table sideways →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lugano | 11 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 34 | 9 | 31 |
| 2 | Young Boys | 11 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 35 | 18 | 25 |
| 3 | FC Sion | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 24 | 17 | 22 |
| 4 | FC Zurich | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 20 | 23 | 17 |
| 5 | Servette | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 16 | 14 | 16 |
| 6 | St Gallen | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 17 | 21 | 16 |
| 7 | Basel | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 17 | 20 | 14 |
| 8 | Lucerne | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 18 | 24 | 12 |
| 9 | FC Thun | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 19 | 30 | 10 |
| 10 | FC Vaduz | 11 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 22 | 23 | 9 |
| 11 | Grasshoppers | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 13 | 26 | 9 |
| 12 | FC Lausanne-Sport | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 17 | 6 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Lugano | Basel |
|---|---|---|
| FC Thun | 3-2 W | 4-2 W |
| Lucerne | 4-0 W | 4-2 W |
| FC Lausanne-Sport | 4-0 W | 0-1 L |
| St Gallen | 4-1 W | 1-3 L |
| Young Boys | 2-2 D | 3-3 D |
| FC Sion | 2-1 W | 1-2 L |
| FC Zurich | 5-0 W | 2-1 W |
| Grasshoppers | 4-1 W | 0-0 D |
| Record vs common | 7 W 1 D 0 L | 3 W 2 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Lugano (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Lugano
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/10 | FC Thun Switzerland Super League |
1-1 | 3-2 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 10/10 | Lucerne Switzerland Super League |
1-0 | 4-0 | 8 | 5 | W |
| 20/09 | FC Lausanne-Sport Switzerland Super League |
1-0 | 4-0 | 6 | 7 | W |
| 16/09 | St Gallen Switzerland Super League |
4-0 | 4-1 | 2 | 7 | W |
| 12/09 | Young Boys Switzerland Super League |
1-2 | 2-2 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 06/09 | Basel Switzerland Super League |
0-0 | 3-1 | 7 | 6 | W |
| 03/09 | Servette Switzerland Super League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 11 | 4 | W |
| 30/08 | FC Sion Switzerland Super League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 09/08 | FC Zurich Switzerland Super League |
2-0 | 5-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 02/08 | Grasshoppers Switzerland Super League |
0-1 | 4-1 | 4 | 2 | W |
Basel
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/10 | Grasshoppers Switzerland Super League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 11/10 | FC Vaduz Switzerland Super League |
0-2 | 0-3 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 20/09 | St Gallen Switzerland Super League |
1-1 | 1-3 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 13/09 | Lucerne Switzerland Super League |
2-1 | 4-2 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 06/09 | Lugano Switzerland Super League |
0-0 | 1-3 | 1 | 6 | L |
| 03/09 | FC Sion Switzerland Super League |
1-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 29/08 | Young Boys Switzerland Super League |
2-3 | 3-3 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 22/08 | FC Zurich Switzerland Super League |
0-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 11 | W |
| 09/08 | FC Thun Switzerland Super League |
2-0 | 4-2 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 01/08 | FC Lausanne-Sport Switzerland Super League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 7 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Lugano vs Basel?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Lugano win (59%). Probabilities: Lugano 59%, draw 20%, Basel 21%.
How many goals are expected in Lugano vs Basel?
The model expects 3.84 goals (Lugano 2.42 · Basel 1.41), with a 54% chance of over 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Lugano vs Basel?
The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.