Football · Switzerland Super League · 25/10, 14:00

Prediction: FC Thun vs Lugano

Team pages: FC Thun · Lugano

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.39Total

FC Thun1.41

Lugano1.97

1X2

26% 24% 49%

FC Thun Draw Lugano

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Thun 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

WLLWDLLLWL

Lugano 9-1-0 (W-D-L)

WWWWWWDWWW

Head-to-head

FC Thun 2–4 Lugano (6 last)

FC Thun0-1Lugano
Lugano1-0FC Thun
FC Thun0-1Lugano
Lugano1-2FC Thun
Lugano2-4FC Thun
FC Thun3-4Lugano

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Thun 1437 · Lugano 1657

	FC Thun	Draw	Lugano
Our model	27%	24%	50%
Market	26%	25%	49%

Estimated total (ours) 3.39 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lugano (rating 1437 vs 1657).
H2H favours Lugano: 4-0-2.
High corners: 11.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Thun	Lugano
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 2.7	3.1 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 1.2	1.2 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	60/20/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 5.6	3.2 / 6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.3	4.2 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

13.60

X3.80

21.91

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.90

2 (-0.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.82

Under 3.251.98

Diff.: 0.85 · xG: 4.1

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 08:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.40 → 3.60▲	Bet365 3.60
X	3.80 → 3.80	Pinn 4.24 ★
2	1.91 → 1.91	Bet365 1.91

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 6.5% Pinnacle margin 5.3%

Time*	1	X	2
00:05 +14’	3.40	3.80	1.91
08:06 +10’	3.60▲	3.80	1.91

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
15:02 +556’	3.51	4.27	1.88
15:43 +39’	3.49▼	4.24▼	1.88▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Thun 2–0–4 Lugano

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/04/26 Switzerland Super League	FC Thun	0-1 HT 0-0	Lugano
04/04/26 Switzerland Super League	Lugano	1-0 HT 0-0	FC Thun
22/11/25 Switzerland Super League	FC Thun	0-1 HT 0-0	Lugano
27/07/25 Switzerland Super League	Lugano	1-2 HT 1-0	FC Thun
11/07/25 Europe Friendlies	Lugano	2-4 HT 1-3	FC Thun
10/02/22 Switzerland Cup	FC Thun	3-4 HT 1-2	Lugano

Standings · Switzerland Super League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Lugano	10	9	1	0	31	7	28
2	Young Boys	10	6	4	0	33	18	22
3	FC Sion	10	6	1	3	23	17	19
4	St Gallen	10	5	1	4	17	19	16
5	FC Zurich	10	4	2	4	18	22	14
6	Servette	10	4	1	5	14	13	13
7	Basel	10	4	1	5	17	20	13
8	Lucerne	10	3	3	4	17	22	12
9	FC Thun	10	3	1	6	17	27	10
10	FC Vaduz	10	3	0	7	21	21	9
11	Grasshoppers	10	2	2	6	13	26	8
12	FC Lausanne-Sport	10	1	3	6	7	16	6

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Thun	Lugano
FC Zurich	2-4 L	5-0 W
FC Vaduz	2-1 W	2-1 W
Servette	2-4 L	1-0 W
Grasshoppers	0-1 L	4-1 W
FC Sion	2-3 L	2-1 W
FC Lausanne-Sport	0-0 D	4-0 W
St Gallen	4-3 W	4-1 W
Basel	2-4 L	3-1 W
Young Boys	0-6 L	2-2 D
Lucerne	3-1 W	4-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 6 L	9 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Lugano (9 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Thun

WLLWDLLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	FC Zurich Switzerland Super League	1-2	2-4	6	3	L
20/09	FC Vaduz Switzerland Super League	1-0	2-1	7	5	W
16/09	Servette Switzerland Super League	1-2	2-4	7	6	L
12/09	Grasshoppers Switzerland Super League	0-1	0-1	10	7	L
06/09	FC Sion Switzerland Super League	1-1	2-3	4	5	L
02/09	FC Lausanne-Sport Switzerland Super League	0-0	0-0	6	4	D
30/08	St Gallen Switzerland Super League	1-0	4-3	1	4	W
09/08	Basel Switzerland Super League	0-2	2-4	5	4	L
01/08	Young Boys Switzerland Super League	0-3	0-6	4	2	L
25/07	Lucerne Switzerland Super League	1-1	3-1	6	4	W

Lugano

WWWWWWDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Lucerne Switzerland Super League	1-0	4-0	8	5	W
20/09	FC Lausanne-Sport Switzerland Super League	1-0	4-0	6	7	W
16/09	St Gallen Switzerland Super League	4-0	4-1	2	7	W
12/09	Young Boys Switzerland Super League	1-2	2-2	4	5	D
06/09	Basel Switzerland Super League	0-0	3-1	7	6	W
03/09	Servette Switzerland Super League	0-0	1-0	11	4	W
30/08	FC Sion Switzerland Super League	1-0	2-1	4	3	W
09/08	FC Zurich Switzerland Super League	2-0	5-0	5	3	W
02/08	Grasshoppers Switzerland Super League	0-1	4-1	4	2	W
26/07	FC Vaduz Switzerland Super League	2-0	2-1	9	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Thun vs Lugano?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Lugano win (49%). Probabilities: FC Thun 26%, draw 24%, Lugano 49%.

How many goals are expected in FC Thun vs Lugano?

The model expects 3.39 goals (FC Thun 1.41 · Lugano 1.97), with a 51% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Thun vs Lugano?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.