Football · Japan J-League · 15/08, 12:00
Prediction: Avispa Fukuoka vs Cerezo Osaka
Team pages: Avispa Fukuoka · Cerezo Osaka
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.87Total
Avispa Fukuoka1.11
Cerezo Osaka1.76
1X2
Avispa Fukuoka
Draw
Cerezo Osaka
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 55%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Avispa Fukuoka
2-5-3 (W-D-L)
Cerezo Osaka
6-4-0 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Avispa Fukuoka
0–1–5
Cerezo Osaka
(6 last)
- Cerezo Osaka1-1Avispa Fukuoka
- Avispa Fukuoka0-2Cerezo Osaka
- Avispa Fukuoka2-4Cerezo Osaka
- Cerezo Osaka2-0Avispa Fukuoka
- Cerezo Osaka1-0Avispa Fukuoka
- Avispa Fukuoka0-3Cerezo Osaka
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Cerezo Osaka (rating 1456 vs 1609).
- H2H favours Cerezo Osaka: 5-1-0.
- Cards-heavy: 5.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Avispa Fukuoka | Cerezo Osaka | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 1.3 | 2.2 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 1 | 1.4 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/20/70% | 60/40/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.5 / 4.6 | 2 / 4.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3 / 0.1 | 2.3 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Avispa Fukuoka 0–1–5 Cerezo Osaka
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/05/26 Japan J-League | Cerezo Osaka | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Avispa Fukuoka |
| 15/02/26 Japan J-League | Avispa Fukuoka | 0-2 HT 0-2 | Cerezo Osaka |
| 13/09/25 Japan J-League | Avispa Fukuoka | 2-4 HT 1-0 | Cerezo Osaka |
| 24/05/25 Japan J-League | Cerezo Osaka | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Avispa Fukuoka |
| 09/11/24 Japan J-League | Cerezo Osaka | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Avispa Fukuoka |
| 18/05/24 Japan J-League | Avispa Fukuoka | 0-3 HT 0-2 | Cerezo Osaka |
Standings · Japan J-League
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Machida Zelvia | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 3 |
| 2 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Gamba Osaka | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
| 3 | Kashima Antlers | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
| 5 | Cerezo Osaka | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 5 | Kashiwa Reysol | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 7 | Shimizu S-Pulse | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 7 | Vissel Kobe | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 9 | Kawasaki Frontale | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | Kyoto Sanga FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | Tokyo Verdy | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | V-Varen Nagasaki | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 | Urawa Red Diamonds | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| 13 | Yokohama F-Marinos | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| 15 | Fagiano Okayama | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 15 | Mito Hollyhock | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 17 | Avispa Fukuoka | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 17 | Nagoya Grampus | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 19 | JEF Utd Chiba | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 20 | FC Tokyo | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Avispa Fukuoka | Cerezo Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| Vissel Kobe | 0-1 L | 0-0 D |
| Shimizu S-Pulse | 1-1 D | 1-1 D |
| Fagiano Okayama | 0-2 L | 2-1 W |
| Record vs common | 0 W 1 D 2 L | 1 W 2 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Cerezo Osaka (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Avispa Fukuoka
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08 | Vissel Kobe Japan J-League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 06/06 | JEF Utd Chiba Japan J-League Play-Offs |
0-1 | 2-1 | 7 | 0 | W |
| 30/05 | JEF Utd Chiba Japan J-League Play-Offs |
0-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 23/05 | Vissel Kobe Japan J-League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 10/05 | Shimizu S-Pulse Japan J-League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 06/05 | Kyoto Sanga FC Japan J-League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 8 | 3 | D |
| 03/05 | Cerezo Osaka Japan J-League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 29/04 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima Japan J-League |
1-2 | 2-2 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 25/04 | Fagiano Okayama Japan J-League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 7 | 2 | L |
| 22/04 | Gamba Osaka Japan J-League |
2-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 5 | W |
Cerezo Osaka
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08 | Fagiano Okayama Japan J-League |
2-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 29/07 | Borussia Dortmund Elite Club Friendlies |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 06/06 | FC Tokyo Japan J-League Play-Offs |
3-0 | 3-1 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 30/05 | FC Tokyo Japan J-League Play-Offs |
1-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 24/05 | Fagiano Okayama Japan J-League |
1-0 | 3-2 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 17/05 | Nagoya Grampus Japan J-League |
3-1 | 6-1 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 09/05 | V-Varen Nagasaki Japan J-League |
1-1 | 3-2 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 06/05 | Shimizu S-Pulse Japan J-League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 2 | D |
| 03/05 | Avispa Fukuoka Japan J-League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 2 | D |
| 29/04 | Vissel Kobe Japan J-League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Avispa Fukuoka vs Cerezo Osaka?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Cerezo Osaka win (52%). Probabilities: Avispa Fukuoka 23%, draw 26%, Cerezo Osaka 52%.
How many goals are expected in Avispa Fukuoka vs Cerezo Osaka?
The model expects 2.87 goals (Avispa Fukuoka 1.11 · Cerezo Osaka 1.76), with a 58% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Avispa Fukuoka vs Cerezo Osaka?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.