Football · Japan J-League · 22/08, 12:15

Prediction: Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Kawasaki Frontale

Team pages: Sanfrecce Hiroshima · Kawasaki Frontale

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.8Total

Sanfrecce Hiroshima1.8

Kawasaki Frontale1

1X2

55% 25% 20%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima Draw Kawasaki Frontale

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Sanfrecce Hiroshima 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

LDWWWWWWWW

Kawasaki Frontale 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LLWLDWLLDD

Head-to-head

Sanfrecce Hiroshima 3–2–1 Kawasaki Frontale (6 last)

Kawasaki Frontale0-1Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Sanfrecce Hiroshima2-1Kawasaki Frontale
Kawasaki Frontale1-2Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Sanfrecce Hiroshima1-2Kawasaki Frontale
Kawasaki Frontale1-1Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Sanfrecce Hiroshima2-2Kawasaki Frontale

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1606 · Kawasaki Frontale 1462

	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	Draw	Kawasaki Frontale
Our model	55%	25%	20%
Market	56%	24%	20%

Estimated total (ours) 2.8 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sanfrecce Hiroshima (rating 1606 vs 1462).
H2H favours Sanfrecce Hiroshima: 3-2-1.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	Kawasaki Frontale
Goals for / against (FT)	2.3 / 0.7	0.9 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 0.4	0.2 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	80/20/0%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 5.5	1.7 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.3 / 0	1.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.65

X3.80

24.50

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.83

Under 2.752.01

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:25

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.65 → 1.65	Pinn 1.65
X	3.80 → 3.80	Pinn 4.14 ★
2	4.50 → 4.50	Pinn 4.80

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.1% Pinnacle margin 5.5%

Time*	1	X	2
17:16 +9’	1.65	3.80	4.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
02:58	1.65	4.14	4.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Sanfrecce Hiroshima 3–2–1 Kawasaki Frontale

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/06/26 Japan J-League Play-Offs	Kawasaki Frontale	0-1 HT 0-1	Sanfrecce Hiroshima
30/05/26 Japan J-League Play-Offs	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	2-1 HT 2-1	Kawasaki Frontale
30/11/25 Japan J-League	Kawasaki Frontale	1-2 HT 1-1	Sanfrecce Hiroshima
31/05/25 Japan J-League	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	1-2 HT 0-0	Kawasaki Frontale
29/06/24 Japan J-League	Kawasaki Frontale	1-1 HT 1-0	Sanfrecce Hiroshima
28/04/24 Japan J-League	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	2-2 HT 1-0	Kawasaki Frontale

Standings · Japan J-League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Machida Zelvia	2	2	0	0	9	1	6
2	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	2	2	0	0	7	1	6
3	Kashiwa Reysol	2	2	0	0	5	2	6
4	Kashima Antlers	2	2	0	0	6	4	6
5	Gamba Osaka	2	1	1	0	5	4	4
6	Vissel Kobe	2	1	1	0	3	2	4
7	Avispa Fukuoka	2	1	0	1	3	1	3
8	Yokohama F-Marinos	2	1	0	1	4	4	3
9	Fagiano Okayama	2	1	0	1	2	2	3
9	V-Varen Nagasaki	2	1	0	1	2	2	3
11	Shimizu S-Pulse	2	1	0	1	1	1	3
12	Cerezo Osaka	2	1	0	1	2	4	3
13	Kawasaki Frontale	2	0	2	0	3	3	2
14	Kyoto Sanga FC	2	0	1	1	3	4	1
15	Mito Hollyhock	2	0	1	1	2	3	1
16	Tokyo Verdy	2	0	1	1	2	4	1
17	FC Tokyo	2	0	1	1	3	7	1
18	Nagoya Grampus	2	0	0	2	1	3	0
19	Urawa Red Diamonds	2	0	0	2	4	8	0
20	JEF Utd Chiba	2	0	0	2	0	7	0

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	Kawasaki Frontale
Urawa Red Diamonds	4-1 W	0-2 L
Kyoto Sanga FC	4-0 W	2-2 D
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 0 L	0 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Sanfrecce Hiroshima (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

LDWWWWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	Urawa Red Diamonds Japan J-League	2-1	4-1	11	3	W
08/08	JEF Utd Chiba Japan J-League	1-0	3-0	3	2	W
14/07	Slaven Belupo World Club Friendlies	2-1	3-1	3	0	W
06/06	Kawasaki Frontale Japan J-League Play-Offs	1-0	1-0	9	3	W
30/05	Kawasaki Frontale Japan J-League Play-Offs	2-1	2-1	6	1	W
23/05	Nagoya Grampus Japan J-League	2-1	4-2	2	1	W
17/05	Kyoto Sanga FC Japan J-League	1-0	4-0	10	3	W
10/05	Gamba Osaka Japan J-League	0-0	1-0	1	2	W
06/05	Vissel Kobe Japan J-League	1-0	1-1	6	4	D
02/05	Fagiano Okayama Japan J-League	0-0	0-1	4	4	L

Kawasaki Frontale

LLWLDWLLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	Kyoto Sanga FC Japan J-League	1-0	2-2	6	3	D
09/08	Tokyo Verdy Japan J-League	0-0	1-1	4	1	D
06/06	Sanfrecce Hiroshima Japan J-League Play-Offs	0-1	0-1	5	3	L
30/05	Sanfrecce Hiroshima Japan J-League Play-Offs	1-2	1-2	2	1	L
24/05	Mito Hollyhock Japan J-League	0-0	3-1	3	0	W
17/05	Machida Zelvia Japan J-League	0-1	1-1	9	2	D
10/05	Kashiwa Reysol Japan J-League	0-0	0-1	10	0	L
06/05	Tokyo Verdy Japan J-League	0-0	1-0	1	0	W
02/05	FC Tokyo Japan J-League	0-1	0-2	3	2	L
29/04	Urawa Red Diamonds Japan J-League	0-0	0-2	1	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Kawasaki Frontale?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Sanfrecce Hiroshima win (55%). Probabilities: Sanfrecce Hiroshima 55%, draw 25%, Kawasaki Frontale 20%.

How many goals are expected in Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Kawasaki Frontale?

The model expects 2.8 goals (Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1.8 · Kawasaki Frontale 1), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Kawasaki Frontale?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.