Football · Japan J-League · 22/08, 12:00

Prediction: Nagoya Grampus vs Gamba Osaka

Team pages: Nagoya Grampus · Gamba Osaka

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.8Total

Nagoya Grampus1.49

Gamba Osaka1.31

1X2

40% 27% 32%

Nagoya Grampus Draw Gamba Osaka

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Nagoya Grampus 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

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Gamba Osaka 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Nagoya Grampus 1–1–4 Gamba Osaka (6 last)

Nagoya Grampus2-1Gamba Osaka
Gamba Osaka0-0Nagoya Grampus
Nagoya Grampus0-2Gamba Osaka
Gamba Osaka2-0Nagoya Grampus
Gamba Osaka3-2Nagoya Grampus
Nagoya Grampus0-1Gamba Osaka

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Nagoya Grampus 1474 · Gamba Osaka 1576

	Nagoya Grampus	Draw	Gamba Osaka
Our model	40%	28%	32%
Market	40%	27%	32%

Estimated total (ours) 2.8 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Gamba Osaka (rating 1474 vs 1576).
H2H favours Gamba Osaka: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 4.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Nagoya Grampus	Gamba Osaka
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.8	2.2 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.9	0.9 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 5.5	1.6 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.4 / 0.2	2.3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.30

X3.40

22.88

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.02

2 (+0.25)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.88

Under 2.51.93

Diff.: 0.75 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:24

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.30	Pinn 2.37
X	3.40 → 3.40	Pinn 3.53 ★
2	2.88 → 2.88	Pinn 2.90

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.7% Pinnacle margin 5%

Time*	1	X	2
17:04 +20’	2.30	3.40	2.88

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
02:56 +1’	2.37	3.53	2.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Nagoya Grampus 1–1–4 Gamba Osaka

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/05/26 Japan J-League	Nagoya Grampus	2-1 HT 2-0	Gamba Osaka
15/02/26 Japan J-League	Gamba Osaka	0-0 HT 0-0	Nagoya Grampus
25/10/25 Japan J-League	Nagoya Grampus	0-2 HT 0-0	Gamba Osaka
12/04/25 Japan J-League	Gamba Osaka	2-0 HT 0-0	Nagoya Grampus
23/10/24 Japan J-League	Gamba Osaka	3-2 HT 2-1	Nagoya Grampus
11/05/24 Japan J-League	Nagoya Grampus	0-1 HT 0-0	Gamba Osaka

Standings · Japan J-League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Machida Zelvia	2	2	0	0	9	1	6
2	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	2	2	0	0	7	1	6
3	Kashiwa Reysol	2	2	0	0	5	2	6
4	Kashima Antlers	2	2	0	0	6	4	6
5	Gamba Osaka	2	1	1	0	5	4	4
6	Vissel Kobe	2	1	1	0	3	2	4
7	Avispa Fukuoka	2	1	0	1	3	1	3
8	Yokohama F-Marinos	2	1	0	1	4	4	3
9	Fagiano Okayama	2	1	0	1	2	2	3
9	V-Varen Nagasaki	2	1	0	1	2	2	3
11	Shimizu S-Pulse	2	1	0	1	1	1	3
12	Cerezo Osaka	2	1	0	1	2	4	3
13	Kawasaki Frontale	2	0	2	0	3	3	2
14	Kyoto Sanga FC	2	0	1	1	3	4	1
15	Mito Hollyhock	2	0	1	1	2	3	1
16	Tokyo Verdy	2	0	1	1	2	4	1
17	FC Tokyo	2	0	1	1	3	7	1
18	Nagoya Grampus	2	0	0	2	1	3	0
19	Urawa Red Diamonds	2	0	0	2	4	8	0
20	JEF Utd Chiba	2	0	0	2	0	7	0

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Nagoya Grampus

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	Kashima Antlers Japan J-League	0-1	1-2	4	4	L
08/08	Shimizu S-Pulse Japan J-League	0-1	0-1	13	3	L
06/06	Machida Zelvia Japan J-League Play-Offs	0-0	0-0	1	6	D
30/05	Machida Zelvia Japan J-League Play-Offs	1-1	2-2	1	4	D
23/05	Sanfrecce Hiroshima Japan J-League	1-2	2-4	6	1	L
17/05	Cerezo Osaka Japan J-League	1-3	1-6	3	1	L
10/05	Kyoto Sanga FC Japan J-League	2-0	3-0	8	3	W
06/05	Gamba Osaka Japan J-League	2-0	2-1	3	2	W
03/05	V-Varen Nagasaki Japan J-League	1-1	2-1	9	1	W
29/04	Fagiano Okayama Japan J-League	0-0	1-1	7	1	D

Gamba Osaka

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	Mito Hollyhock Japan J-League	0-1	1-1	9	1	D
11/08	Gangwon FC AFC Champions League Qualification	0-0	0-0	3	6	D
07/08	Urawa Red Diamonds Japan J-League	2-1	4-3	5	5	W
24/07	Zweigen Kanazawa World Club Friendlies	2-0	6-0	5	1	W
15/07	FC Salzburg World Club Friendlies	2-0	3-0	–	–	W
11/07	Sparta Prague World Club Friendlies	0-2	0-3	4	0	L
06/06	Tokyo Verdy Japan J-League Play-Offs	1-1	4-2	0	4	W
30/05	Tokyo Verdy Japan J-League Play-Offs	1-0	1-1	8	0	D
24/05	Shimizu S-Pulse Japan J-League	0-0	2-1	1	4	W
16/05	Al-Nassr Riyadh AFC Champions League Two	1-0	1-0	3	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Nagoya Grampus vs Gamba Osaka?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Nagoya Grampus win (40%). Probabilities: Nagoya Grampus 40%, draw 27%, Gamba Osaka 32%.

How many goals are expected in Nagoya Grampus vs Gamba Osaka?

The model expects 2.8 goals (Nagoya Grampus 1.49 · Gamba Osaka 1.31), with a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Nagoya Grampus vs Gamba Osaka?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.