Football · Japan J-League · 22/08, 12:00
Prediction: Cerezo Osaka vs Shimizu S-Pulse
Team pages: Cerezo Osaka · Shimizu S-Pulse
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.76Total
Cerezo Osaka1.51
Shimizu S-Pulse1.25
1X2
Cerezo Osaka
Draw
Shimizu S-Pulse
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Cerezo Osaka
6-3-1 (W-D-L)
Shimizu S-Pulse
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Cerezo Osaka
3–3–0
Shimizu S-Pulse
(6 last)
- Shimizu S-Pulse1-1Cerezo Osaka
- Cerezo Osaka0-0Shimizu S-Pulse
- Shimizu S-Pulse1-4Cerezo Osaka
- Cerezo Osaka4-2Shimizu S-Pulse
- Cerezo Osaka1-1Shimizu S-Pulse
- Shimizu S-Pulse1-3Cerezo Osaka
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Cerezo Osaka 1566 · Shimizu S-Pulse 1495
| Cerezo Osaka | Draw | Shimizu S-Pulse | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 42% | 28% | 30% |
| Market | 42% | 28% | 30% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.76 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Cerezo Osaka (rating 1566 vs 1495).
- H2H favours Cerezo Osaka: 3-3-0.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Cerezo Osaka | Shimizu S-Pulse | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.2 / 1.4 | 0.9 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.4 / 0.7 | 0.2 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 60/30/10% | 10/60/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.1 / 4.7 | 2.9 / 5.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.1 / 0 | 2 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Cerezo Osaka 3–3–0 Shimizu S-Pulse
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/05/26 Japan J-League | Shimizu S-Pulse | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Cerezo Osaka |
| 07/03/26 Japan J-League | Cerezo Osaka | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Shimizu S-Pulse |
| 09/11/25 Japan J-League | Shimizu S-Pulse | 1-4 HT 0-3 | Cerezo Osaka |
| 01/06/25 Japan J-League | Cerezo Osaka | 4-2 HT 2-1 | Shimizu S-Pulse |
| 26/06/22 Japan J-League | Cerezo Osaka | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Shimizu S-Pulse |
| 12/03/22 Japan J-League | Shimizu S-Pulse | 1-3 HT 0-1 | Cerezo Osaka |
Standings · Japan J-League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Machida Zelvia | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 1 | 6 |
| 2 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 6 |
| 3 | Kashiwa Reysol | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 6 |
| 4 | Kashima Antlers | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 6 |
| 5 | Gamba Osaka | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 4 |
| 6 | Vissel Kobe | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 4 |
| 7 | Avispa Fukuoka | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
| 8 | Yokohama F-Marinos | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 3 |
| 9 | Fagiano Okayama | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| 9 | V-Varen Nagasaki | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| 11 | Shimizu S-Pulse | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 12 | Cerezo Osaka | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 3 |
| 13 | Kawasaki Frontale | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 |
| 14 | Kyoto Sanga FC | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 1 |
| 15 | Mito Hollyhock | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| 16 | Tokyo Verdy | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 |
| 17 | FC Tokyo | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 1 |
| 18 | Nagoya Grampus | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| 19 | Urawa Red Diamonds | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
| 20 | JEF Utd Chiba | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 0 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Cerezo Osaka | Shimizu S-Pulse |
|---|---|---|
| Avispa Fukuoka | 0-3 L | 1-1 D |
| Fagiano Okayama | 2-1 W | 0-2 L |
| Nagoya Grampus | 6-1 W | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 0 D 1 L | 1 W 1 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Cerezo Osaka (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Cerezo Osaka
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | Avispa Fukuoka Japan J-League |
0-2 | 0-3 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 08/08 | Fagiano Okayama Japan J-League |
2-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 29/07 | Borussia Dortmund Elite Club Friendlies |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 06/06 | FC Tokyo Japan J-League Play-Offs |
3-0 | 3-1 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 30/05 | FC Tokyo Japan J-League Play-Offs |
1-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 24/05 | Fagiano Okayama Japan J-League |
1-0 | 3-2 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 17/05 | Nagoya Grampus Japan J-League |
3-1 | 6-1 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 09/05 | V-Varen Nagasaki Japan J-League |
1-1 | 3-2 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 06/05 | Shimizu S-Pulse Japan J-League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 2 | D |
| 03/05 | Avispa Fukuoka Japan J-League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 2 | D |
Shimizu S-Pulse
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08 | Shonan Bellmare Club Friendly List |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 15/08 | Yokohama F-Marinos Japan J-League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 1 | L |
| 08/08 | Nagoya Grampus Japan J-League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 14/07 | Polissya Zhytomyr World Club Friendlies |
1-1 | 3-1 | 5 | 0 | W |
| 06/06 | Yokohama F-Marinos Japan J-League Play-Offs |
0-1 | 0-3 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 31/05 | Yokohama F-Marinos Japan J-League Play-Offs |
0-0 | 1-1 | 10 | 1 | D |
| 24/05 | Gamba Osaka Japan J-League |
0-0 | 1-2 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 17/05 | Fagiano Okayama Japan J-League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 10/05 | Avispa Fukuoka Japan J-League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 06/05 | Cerezo Osaka Japan J-League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 2 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Cerezo Osaka vs Shimizu S-Pulse?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Cerezo Osaka win (42%). Probabilities: Cerezo Osaka 42%, draw 28%, Shimizu S-Pulse 30%.
How many goals are expected in Cerezo Osaka vs Shimizu S-Pulse?
The model expects 2.76 goals (Cerezo Osaka 1.51 · Shimizu S-Pulse 1.25), with a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Cerezo Osaka vs Shimizu S-Pulse?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.