Football · Japan J-League · 22/08, 12:00

Prediction: Kyoto Sanga FC vs Mito Hollyhock

Team pages: Kyoto Sanga FC · Mito Hollyhock

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.55Total

Kyoto Sanga FC1.48

Mito Hollyhock1.07

1X2

45% 29% 26%

Kyoto Sanga FC Draw Mito Hollyhock

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Kyoto Sanga FC 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

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Mito Hollyhock 0-3-7 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Kyoto Sanga FC 2–1–3 Mito Hollyhock (6 last)

Mito Hollyhock0-2Kyoto Sanga FC
Kyoto Sanga FC1-0Mito Hollyhock
Mito Hollyhock2-1Kyoto Sanga FC
Kyoto Sanga FC2-2Mito Hollyhock
Mito Hollyhock3-0Kyoto Sanga FC
Mito Hollyhock1-0Kyoto Sanga FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Kyoto Sanga FC 1451 · Mito Hollyhock 1409

	Kyoto Sanga FC	Draw	Mito Hollyhock
Our model	46%	28%	26%
Market	45%	29%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 2.55 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Kyoto Sanga FC (rating 1451 vs 1409).
H2H favours Mito Hollyhock: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 4.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Kyoto Sanga FC	Mito Hollyhock
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 2.1	0.7 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.9	0.2 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	10/40/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 4.3	2.3 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.1	1.2 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.05

X3.20

23.60

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.93

Under 2.251.90

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:24

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.05 → 2.05	Pinn 2.07
X	3.20 → 3.20	Pinn 3.50 ★
2	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.8% Pinnacle margin 5%

Time*	1	X	2
17:19 +5’	2.05	3.20	3.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
02:56 +1’	2.07	3.50	3.55

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Kyoto Sanga FC 2–1–3 Mito Hollyhock

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/08/21 Japan J2-League	Mito Hollyhock	0-2 HT 0-1	Kyoto Sanga FC
16/05/21 Japan J2-League	Kyoto Sanga FC	1-0 HT 1-0	Mito Hollyhock
15/11/20 Japan J2-League	Mito Hollyhock	2-1 HT 0-1	Kyoto Sanga FC
12/08/20 Japan J2-League	Kyoto Sanga FC	2-2 HT 1-1	Mito Hollyhock
17/08/19 Japan J2-League	Mito Hollyhock	3-0 HT 2-0	Kyoto Sanga FC
03/07/19 Japan Cup	Mito Hollyhock	1-0 HT 0-0	Kyoto Sanga FC

Standings · Japan J-League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Machida Zelvia	2	2	0	0	9	1	6
2	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	2	2	0	0	7	1	6
3	Kashiwa Reysol	2	2	0	0	5	2	6
4	Kashima Antlers	2	2	0	0	6	4	6
5	Gamba Osaka	2	1	1	0	5	4	4
6	Vissel Kobe	2	1	1	0	3	2	4
7	Avispa Fukuoka	2	1	0	1	3	1	3
8	Yokohama F-Marinos	2	1	0	1	4	4	3
9	Fagiano Okayama	2	1	0	1	2	2	3
9	V-Varen Nagasaki	2	1	0	1	2	2	3
11	Shimizu S-Pulse	2	1	0	1	1	1	3
12	Cerezo Osaka	2	1	0	1	2	4	3
13	Kawasaki Frontale	2	0	2	0	3	3	2
14	Kyoto Sanga FC	2	0	1	1	3	4	1
15	Mito Hollyhock	2	0	1	1	2	3	1
16	Tokyo Verdy	2	0	1	1	2	4	1
17	FC Tokyo	2	0	1	1	3	7	1
18	Nagoya Grampus	2	0	0	2	1	3	0
19	Urawa Red Diamonds	2	0	0	2	4	8	0
20	JEF Utd Chiba	2	0	0	2	0	7	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Kyoto Sanga FC	Mito Hollyhock
Kawasaki Frontale	2-2 D	1-3 L
V-Varen Nagasaki	1-2 L	0-1 L
Kashiwa Reysol	1-0 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 1 L	0 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Kyoto Sanga FC (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Kyoto Sanga FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	Kawasaki Frontale Japan J-League	0-1	2-2	1	3	D
09/08	V-Varen Nagasaki Japan J-League	0-2	1-2	4	4	L
06/06	Kashiwa Reysol Japan J-League Play-Offs	0-0	1-0	7	6	W
30/05	Kashiwa Reysol Japan J-League Play-Offs	1-3	2-6	2	3	L
23/05	V-Varen Nagasaki Japan J-League	0-0	1-0	7	3	W
17/05	Sanfrecce Hiroshima Japan J-League	0-1	0-4	1	3	L
13/05	Vissel Kobe Japan J-League	0-0	0-1	1	2	L
10/05	Nagoya Grampus Japan J-League	0-2	0-3	5	3	L
06/05	Avispa Fukuoka Japan J-League	1-0	1-1	7	3	D
02/05	Shimizu S-Pulse Japan J-League	1-0	1-2	8	7	L

Mito Hollyhock

DDLLLLLLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	Gamba Osaka Japan J-League	1-0	1-1	9	1	D
08/08	Kashiwa Reysol Japan J-League	0-2	1-2	5	1	L
06/06	V-Varen Nagasaki Japan J-League Play-Offs	0-1	0-1	7	0	L
30/05	V-Varen Nagasaki Japan J-League Play-Offs	0-1	0-1	7	0	L
24/05	Kawasaki Frontale Japan J-League	0-0	1-3	4	0	L
16/05	Tokyo Verdy Japan J-League	0-0	0-1	3	4	L
09/05	Urawa Red Diamonds Japan J-League	0-1	1-4	0	3	L
06/05	Kashima Antlers Japan J-League	0-0	0-3	2	2	L
02/05	Yokohama F-Marinos Japan J-League	1-1	1-1	8	2	D
29/04	Machida Zelvia Japan J-League	0-1	2-2	6	1	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Kyoto Sanga FC vs Mito Hollyhock?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Kyoto Sanga FC win (45%). Probabilities: Kyoto Sanga FC 45%, draw 29%, Mito Hollyhock 26%.

How many goals are expected in Kyoto Sanga FC vs Mito Hollyhock?

The model expects 2.55 goals (Kyoto Sanga FC 1.48 · Mito Hollyhock 1.07), with a 52% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Kyoto Sanga FC vs Mito Hollyhock?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.