Football · Japan J-League · 02/09, 12:00

Prediction: Machida Zelvia vs Kawasaki Frontale

Team pages: Machida Zelvia · Kawasaki Frontale

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.81Total

Machida Zelvia1.84

Kawasaki Frontale0.97

1X2

57% 25% 18%

Machida Zelvia Draw Kawasaki Frontale

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Machida Zelvia 6-4-0 (W-D-L)

DWWDDWWWWD

Kawasaki Frontale 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

LLWLDWDDDW

Head-to-head

Machida Zelvia 1–3–2 Kawasaki Frontale (6 last)

Kawasaki Frontale1-1Machida Zelvia
Machida Zelvia1-1Kawasaki Frontale
Kawasaki Frontale5-3Machida Zelvia
Machida Zelvia2-2Kawasaki Frontale
Machida Zelvia1-4Kawasaki Frontale
Kawasaki Frontale0-1Machida Zelvia

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Machida Zelvia (rating 1581 vs 1505).
H2H favours Kawasaki Frontale: 2-3-1.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Machida Zelvia	Kawasaki Frontale
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 0.5	1.3 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.3	0.5 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/50/0%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4	1.9 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.7 / 0.1	1.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.85

Under 2.51.98

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:10

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	1.95 → 1.95	Pinn 1.95
X	3.59 → 3.59	Pinn 3.59
2	3.84 → 3.84	Pinn 3.84

See the full journey (1)

Pinnacle margin 5.1%

Time*	1	X	2
17:36 +33’	1.95	3.59	3.84

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Machida Zelvia 1–3–2 Kawasaki Frontale

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/05/26 Japan J-League	Kawasaki Frontale	1-1 HT 0-1	Machida Zelvia
28/03/26 Japan J-League	Machida Zelvia	1-1 HT 1-0	Kawasaki Frontale
31/08/25 Japan J-League	Kawasaki Frontale	5-3 HT 2-2	Machida Zelvia
06/04/25 Japan J-League	Machida Zelvia	2-2 HT 1-1	Kawasaki Frontale
05/10/24 Japan J-League	Machida Zelvia	1-4 HT 1-2	Kawasaki Frontale
07/04/24 Japan J-League	Kawasaki Frontale	0-1 HT 0-1	Machida Zelvia

Standings · Japan J-League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Kashiwa Reysol	4	4	0	0	10	4	12
2	Kashima Antlers	4	4	0	0	11	6	12
3	Machida Zelvia	4	3	1	0	13	3	10
4	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	4	2	2	0	8	2	8
5	FC Tokyo	4	2	1	1	8	7	7
6	Vissel Kobe	4	2	1	1	4	3	7
7	Kawasaki Frontale	4	1	3	0	8	6	6
8	Nagoya Grampus	4	2	0	2	6	5	6
9	Yokohama F-Marinos	4	2	0	2	7	7	6
10	Cerezo Osaka	4	2	0	2	3	5	6
11	Mito Hollyhock	4	1	2	1	6	5	5
12	Gamba Osaka	4	1	2	1	6	7	5
13	Fagiano Okayama	4	1	1	2	3	4	4
14	Kyoto Sanga FC	4	1	1	2	6	8	4
15	Avispa Fukuoka	4	1	0	3	6	6	3
16	Shimizu S-Pulse	4	1	0	3	1	3	3
17	Urawa Red Diamonds	4	1	0	3	8	13	3
18	V-Varen Nagasaki	4	1	0	3	4	9	3
19	Tokyo Verdy	4	0	2	2	2	6	2
20	JEF Utd Chiba	4	0	0	4	2	13	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Machida Zelvia	Kawasaki Frontale
Mito Hollyhock	1-1 D	3-1 W
Urawa Red Diamonds	3-1 W	0-2 L
JEF Utd Chiba	4-0 W	4-2 W
FC Tokyo	5-1 W	0-2 L
Tokyo Verdy	0-0 D	1-1 D
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 0 L	2 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Machida Zelvia (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Machida Zelvia

DWWDDWWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Mito Hollyhock Japan J-League	1-1	1-1	2	1	D
23/08	Urawa Red Diamonds Japan J-League	1-1	3-1	1	1	W
15/08	JEF Utd Chiba Japan J-League	2-0	4-0	8	3	W
08/08	FC Tokyo Japan J-League	2-1	5-1	5	3	W
22/05	Urawa Red Diamonds Japan J-League	1-0	1-0	5	1	W
17/05	Kawasaki Frontale Japan J-League	1-0	1-1	2	2	D
13/05	Tokyo Verdy Japan J-League	0-0	0-0	8	1	D
10/05	JEF Utd Chiba Japan J-League	2-0	2-0	0	1	W
06/05	Yokohama F-Marinos Japan J-League	0-0	2-0	4	1	W
03/05	Kashima Antlers Japan J-League	0-0	1-1	5	4	D

Kawasaki Frontale

LLWLDWDDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	JEF Utd Chiba Japan J-League	4-2	4-2	5	6	W
22/08	Sanfrecce Hiroshima Japan J-League	0-1	1-1	3	3	D
15/08	Kyoto Sanga FC Japan J-League	1-0	2-2	6	3	D
09/08	Tokyo Verdy Japan J-League	0-0	1-1	4	1	D
24/05	Mito Hollyhock Japan J-League	0-0	3-1	3	0	W
17/05	Machida Zelvia Japan J-League	0-1	1-1	9	2	D
10/05	Kashiwa Reysol Japan J-League	0-0	0-1	10	0	L
06/05	Tokyo Verdy Japan J-League	0-0	1-0	1	0	W
02/05	FC Tokyo Japan J-League	0-1	0-2	3	2	L
29/04	Urawa Red Diamonds Japan J-League	0-0	0-2	1	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Machida Zelvia vs Kawasaki Frontale?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Machida Zelvia win (57%). Probabilities: Machida Zelvia 57%, draw 25%, Kawasaki Frontale 18%.

How many goals are expected in Machida Zelvia vs Kawasaki Frontale?

The model expects 2.81 goals (Machida Zelvia 1.84 · Kawasaki Frontale 0.97), with a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Machida Zelvia vs Kawasaki Frontale?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.