Football · Japan J-League · 02/09, 12:00

Prediction: Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Nagoya Grampus

Team pages: Sanfrecce Hiroshima · Nagoya Grampus

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.13Total

Sanfrecce Hiroshima2.07

Nagoya Grampus1.06

1X2

60% 23% 18%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima Draw Nagoya Grampus

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Sanfrecce Hiroshima 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

DLDWWWWWDD

Nagoya Grampus 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

DWWWLLLLWW

Head-to-head

Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2–4 Nagoya Grampus (6 last)

Sanfrecce Hiroshima4-2Nagoya Grampus
Nagoya Grampus2-1Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Nagoya Grampus2-4Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Sanfrecce Hiroshima1-2Nagoya Grampus
Nagoya Grampus2-1Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Sanfrecce Hiroshima0-1Nagoya Grampus

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sanfrecce Hiroshima (rating 1596 vs 1499).
H2H favours Nagoya Grampus: 4-0-2.
High corners: 11.3 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	Nagoya Grampus
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 0.8	1.7 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.3	0.9 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	70/30/0%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 5	2.3 / 6.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.9 / 0.2	2.3 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 32.02

Under 31.83

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 14:26

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	1.52 → 1.51▼	Pinn 1.51
X	4.39 → 4.45▲	Pinn 4.45
2	5.89 → 5.90▲	Pinn 5.90

See the full journey (2)

Pinnacle margin 5.6%

Time*	1	X	2
17:37 +32’	1.52	4.39	5.89
14:21 +6’	1.51▼	4.45▲	5.90▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2–0–4 Nagoya Grampus

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/05/26 Japan J-League	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	4-2 HT 2-1	Nagoya Grampus
18/03/26 Japan J-League	Nagoya Grampus	2-1 HT 1-0	Sanfrecce Hiroshima
27/08/25 Japan FA Cup	Nagoya Grampus	2-4 HT 0-3	Sanfrecce Hiroshima
28/06/25 Japan J-League	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	1-2 HT 0-2	Nagoya Grampus
20/04/25 Japan J-League	Nagoya Grampus	2-1 HT 1-0	Sanfrecce Hiroshima
08/09/24 Japan J-League Cup	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	0-1 HT 0-1	Nagoya Grampus

Standings · Japan J-League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Kashiwa Reysol	4	4	0	0	10	4	12
2	Kashima Antlers	4	4	0	0	11	6	12
3	Machida Zelvia	4	3	1	0	13	3	10
4	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	4	2	2	0	8	2	8
5	FC Tokyo	4	2	1	1	8	7	7
6	Vissel Kobe	4	2	1	1	4	3	7
7	Kawasaki Frontale	4	1	3	0	8	6	6
8	Nagoya Grampus	4	2	0	2	6	5	6
9	Yokohama F-Marinos	4	2	0	2	7	7	6
10	Cerezo Osaka	4	2	0	2	3	5	6
11	Mito Hollyhock	4	1	2	1	6	5	5
12	Gamba Osaka	4	1	2	1	6	7	5
13	Fagiano Okayama	4	1	1	2	3	4	4
14	Kyoto Sanga FC	4	1	1	2	6	8	4
15	Avispa Fukuoka	4	1	0	3	6	6	3
16	Shimizu S-Pulse	4	1	0	3	1	3	3
17	Urawa Red Diamonds	4	1	0	3	8	13	3
18	V-Varen Nagasaki	4	1	0	3	4	9	3
19	Tokyo Verdy	4	0	2	2	2	6	2
20	JEF Utd Chiba	4	0	0	4	2	13	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	Nagoya Grampus
Gamba Osaka	0-0 D	3-1 W
Kyoto Sanga FC	4-0 W	3-0 W
Fagiano Okayama	0-1 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 1 L	3 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Nagoya Grampus (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

DLDWWWWWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Gamba Osaka Japan J-League	0-0	0-0	7	4	D
22/08	Kawasaki Frontale Japan J-League	1-0	1-1	3	3	D
15/08	Urawa Red Diamonds Japan J-League	2-1	4-1	11	3	W
08/08	JEF Utd Chiba Japan J-League	1-0	3-0	3	2	W
23/05	Nagoya Grampus Japan J-League	2-1	4-2	2	1	W
17/05	Kyoto Sanga FC Japan J-League	1-0	4-0	10	3	W
10/05	Gamba Osaka Japan J-League	0-0	1-0	1	2	W
06/05	Vissel Kobe Japan J-League	1-0	1-1	6	4	D
02/05	Fagiano Okayama Japan J-League	0-0	0-1	4	4	L
29/04	Avispa Fukuoka Japan J-League	2-1	2-2	3	5	D

Nagoya Grampus

DWWWLLLLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Fagiano Okayama Japan J-League	1-1	2-1	6	5	W
22/08	Gamba Osaka Japan J-League	1-1	3-1	4	4	W
15/08	Kashima Antlers Japan J-League	0-1	1-2	4	4	L
08/08	Shimizu S-Pulse Japan J-League	0-1	0-1	13	3	L
23/05	Sanfrecce Hiroshima Japan J-League	1-2	2-4	6	1	L
17/05	Cerezo Osaka Japan J-League	1-3	1-6	3	1	L
10/05	Kyoto Sanga FC Japan J-League	2-0	3-0	8	3	W
06/05	Gamba Osaka Japan J-League	2-0	2-1	3	2	W
03/05	V-Varen Nagasaki Japan J-League	1-1	2-1	9	1	W
29/04	Fagiano Okayama Japan J-League	0-0	1-1	7	1	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Nagoya Grampus?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Sanfrecce Hiroshima win (60%). Probabilities: Sanfrecce Hiroshima 60%, draw 23%, Nagoya Grampus 18%.

How many goals are expected in Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Nagoya Grampus?

The model expects 3.13 goals (Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2.07 · Nagoya Grampus 1.06), with a 52% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Nagoya Grampus?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.