Football · Japan J-League · 02/09, 12:00

Prediction: V-Varen Nagasaki vs Gamba Osaka

Team pages: V-Varen Nagasaki · Gamba Osaka

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.1Total

V-Varen Nagasaki1.44

Gamba Osaka1.65

1X2

32% 26% 42%

V-Varen Nagasaki Draw Gamba Osaka

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

V-Varen Nagasaki 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

WLWLDLWLLL

Gamba Osaka 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

DDWLLWWDLD

Head-to-head

V-Varen Nagasaki 2–1–3 Gamba Osaka (6 last)

V-Varen Nagasaki1-1Gamba Osaka
Gamba Osaka3-2V-Varen Nagasaki
Gamba Osaka0-2V-Varen Nagasaki
V-Varen Nagasaki1-4Gamba Osaka
Gamba Osaka2-1V-Varen Nagasaki
V-Varen Nagasaki3-0Gamba Osaka

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Gamba Osaka (rating 1464 vs 1551).
H2H favours Gamba Osaka: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 4.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	V-Varen Nagasaki	Gamba Osaka
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.9	1.6 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.8	0.5 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4.7	1.9 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.4 / 0.1	2.2 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.83

Under 2.52.01

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:08

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	3.37 → 3.37	Pinn 3.37
X	3.57 → 3.57	Pinn 3.57
2	2.11 → 2.11	Pinn 2.11

See the full journey (1)

Pinnacle margin 5.1%

Time*	1	X	2
17:36 +32’	3.37	3.57	2.11

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · V-Varen Nagasaki 2–1–3 Gamba Osaka

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/04/26 Japan J-League	V-Varen Nagasaki	1-1 HT 0-0	Gamba Osaka
08/03/26 Japan J-League	Gamba Osaka	3-2 HT 1-2	V-Varen Nagasaki
26/06/19 Japan J-League Cup	Gamba Osaka	0-2 HT 0-0	V-Varen Nagasaki
19/06/19 Japan J-League Cup	V-Varen Nagasaki	1-4 HT 0-1	Gamba Osaka
24/11/18 Japan J-League	Gamba Osaka	2-1 HT 1-1	V-Varen Nagasaki
14/04/18 Japan J-League	V-Varen Nagasaki	3-0 HT 1-0	Gamba Osaka

Standings · Japan J-League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Kashiwa Reysol	4	4	0	0	10	4	12
2	Kashima Antlers	4	4	0	0	11	6	12
3	Machida Zelvia	4	3	1	0	13	3	10
4	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	4	2	2	0	8	2	8
5	FC Tokyo	4	2	1	1	8	7	7
6	Vissel Kobe	4	2	1	1	4	3	7
7	Kawasaki Frontale	4	1	3	0	8	6	6
8	Nagoya Grampus	4	2	0	2	6	5	6
9	Yokohama F-Marinos	4	2	0	2	7	7	6
10	Cerezo Osaka	4	2	0	2	3	5	6
11	Mito Hollyhock	4	1	2	1	6	5	5
12	Gamba Osaka	4	1	2	1	6	7	5
13	Fagiano Okayama	4	1	1	2	3	4	4
14	Kyoto Sanga FC	4	1	1	2	6	8	4
15	Avispa Fukuoka	4	1	0	3	6	6	3
16	Shimizu S-Pulse	4	1	0	3	1	3	3
17	Urawa Red Diamonds	4	1	0	3	8	13	3
18	V-Varen Nagasaki	4	1	0	3	4	9	3
19	Tokyo Verdy	4	0	2	2	2	6	2
20	JEF Utd Chiba	4	0	0	4	2	13	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	V-Varen Nagasaki	Gamba Osaka
Kyoto Sanga FC	2-1 W	1-1 D
Vissel Kobe	2-2 D	5-0 W
Nagoya Grampus	1-2 L	1-3 L
Shimizu S-Pulse	2-1 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 1 L	2 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: V-Varen Nagasaki (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

V-Varen Nagasaki

WLWLDLWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	FC Tokyo Japan J-League	0-2	0-3	7	3	L
21/08	Kashiwa Reysol Japan J-League	0-1	2-4	2	1	L
15/08	Fagiano Okayama Japan J-League	0-0	0-1	1	1	L
09/08	Kyoto Sanga FC Japan J-League	2-0	2-1	7	4	W
23/05	Kyoto Sanga FC Japan J-League	0-0	0-1	4	3	L
17/05	Vissel Kobe Japan J-League	2-2	2-2	5	3	D
09/05	Cerezo Osaka Japan J-League	1-1	2-3	3	3	L
06/05	Fagiano Okayama Japan J-League	2-0	2-1	5	3	W
03/05	Nagoya Grampus Japan J-League	1-1	1-2	9	1	L
29/04	Shimizu S-Pulse Japan J-League	1-1	2-1	4	3	W

Gamba Osaka

DDWLLWWDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Sanfrecce Hiroshima Japan J-League	0-0	0-0	5	4	D
22/08	Nagoya Grampus Japan J-League	1-1	1-3	3	4	L
15/08	Mito Hollyhock Japan J-League	0-1	1-1	9	1	D
07/08	Urawa Red Diamonds Japan J-League	2-1	4-3	5	5	W
24/05	Shimizu S-Pulse Japan J-League	0-0	2-1	1	4	W
10/05	Sanfrecce Hiroshima Japan J-League	0-0	0-1	3	2	L
06/05	Nagoya Grampus Japan J-League	0-2	1-2	4	2	L
02/05	Vissel Kobe Japan J-League	2-0	5-0	3	1	W
29/04	Kyoto Sanga FC Japan J-League	0-0	1-1	3	1	D
25/04	V-Varen Nagasaki Japan J-League	0-0	1-1	8	1	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in V-Varen Nagasaki vs Gamba Osaka?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Gamba Osaka win (42%). Probabilities: V-Varen Nagasaki 32%, draw 26%, Gamba Osaka 42%.

How many goals are expected in V-Varen Nagasaki vs Gamba Osaka?

The model expects 3.1 goals (V-Varen Nagasaki 1.44 · Gamba Osaka 1.65), with a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in V-Varen Nagasaki vs Gamba Osaka?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.