Football · Japan J-League · 25/10, 07:00
Prediction: Cerezo Osaka vs JEF Utd Chiba
Team pages: Cerezo Osaka · JEF Utd Chiba
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.84Total
Cerezo Osaka1.8
JEF Utd Chiba1.04
1X2
Cerezo Osaka
Draw
JEF Utd Chiba
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 54%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1 12%
Recent form · 10 last
Cerezo Osaka
2-4-4 (W-D-L)
JEF Utd Chiba
1-3-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Cerezo Osaka
1–2–2
JEF Utd Chiba
(5 last)
- JEF Utd Chiba3-0Cerezo Osaka
- Cerezo Osaka2-1JEF Utd Chiba
- Cerezo Osaka1-1JEF Utd Chiba
- JEF Utd Chiba4-4Cerezo Osaka
- Cerezo Osaka0-1JEF Utd Chiba
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Cerezo Osaka 1513 · JEF Utd Chiba 1439
| Cerezo Osaka | Draw | JEF Utd Chiba | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 54% | 25% | 21% |
| Market | 54% | 25% | 21% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.84 goals · Bet365 line 2.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Cerezo Osaka (rating 1513 vs 1439).
- H2H favours JEF Utd Chiba: 2-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 6.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Cerezo Osaka | JEF Utd Chiba | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.8 / 1.6 | 1 / 1.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.2 / 0.9 | 0.7 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/40/50% | 30/50/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 5.2 | 2.6 / 3.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.1 / 0.1 | 3.8 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Cerezo Osaka 1–2–2 JEF Utd Chiba
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/11/16 Japan J2-League | JEF Utd Chiba | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Cerezo Osaka |
| 03/04/16 Japan J2-League | Cerezo Osaka | 2-1 HT 2-0 | JEF Utd Chiba |
| 08/08/15 Japan J2-League | Cerezo Osaka | 1-1 HT 0-0 | JEF Utd Chiba |
| 01/04/15 Japan J2-League | JEF Utd Chiba | 4-4 HT 0-0 | Cerezo Osaka |
| 15/10/14 Japan FA Cup | Cerezo Osaka | 0-1 HT 0-0 | JEF Utd Chiba |
Standings · Japan J-League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Machida Zelvia | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 30 | 10 | 26 |
| 2 | FC Tokyo | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 21 | 8 | 24 |
| 3 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 25 | 10 | 23 |
| 4 | Vissel Kobe | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 18 | 11 | 22 |
| 5 | Kashiwa Reysol | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 22 | 17 | 22 |
| 6 | Kashima Antlers | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 23 | 18 | 20 |
| 7 | Kawasaki Frontale | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 23 | 17 | 19 |
| 8 | Urawa Red Diamonds | 11 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 20 | 23 | 18 |
| 9 | Yokohama F-Marinos | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 15 | 11 | 17 |
| 10 | Fagiano Okayama | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
| 11 | Shimizu S-Pulse | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 10 | 16 | 14 |
| 12 | Nagoya Grampus | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 13 | 17 | 13 |
| 13 | Cerezo Osaka | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 17 | 13 |
| 14 | V-Varen Nagasaki | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 15 | 18 | 12 |
| 15 | Gamba Osaka | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 12 | 19 | 10 |
| 16 | Mito Hollyhock | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 12 | 16 | 9 |
| 17 | Kyoto Sanga FC | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 13 | 21 | 9 |
| 18 | Avispa Fukuoka | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 12 | 18 | 7 |
| 19 | JEF Utd Chiba | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 22 | 6 |
| 20 | Tokyo Verdy | 11 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 20 | 5 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Cerezo Osaka | JEF Utd Chiba |
|---|---|---|
| Kawasaki Frontale | 2-4 L | 2-4 L |
| Yokohama F-Marinos | 0-0 D | 0-0 D |
| V-Varen Nagasaki | 1-1 D | 1-1 D |
| Tokyo Verdy | 0-0 D | 1-1 D |
| Shimizu S-Pulse | 1-0 W | 1-2 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 3 D 1 L | 0 W 3 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Cerezo Osaka (1 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Cerezo Osaka
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/10 | Nagoya Grampus Japan J-League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 1 | 5 | D |
| 17/10 | Kawasaki Frontale Japan J-League |
1-2 | 2-4 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 10/10 | Yokohama F-Marinos Japan J-League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 19/09 | V-Varen Nagasaki Japan J-League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 12/09 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima Japan J-League |
0-3 | 1-6 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 06/09 | Tokyo Verdy Japan J-League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 10 | 1 | D |
| 02/09 | Kashiwa Reysol Japan J-League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 29/08 | Vissel Kobe Japan J-League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 9 | 3 | L |
| 22/08 | Shimizu S-Pulse Japan J-League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 15/08 | Avispa Fukuoka Japan J-League |
0-2 | 0-3 | 2 | 1 | L |
JEF Utd Chiba
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/10 | Urawa Red Diamonds Japan J-League |
1-1 | 2-3 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 17/10 | Yokohama F-Marinos Japan J-League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 7 | D |
| 11/10 | V-Varen Nagasaki Japan J-League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 9 | 3 | D |
| 19/09 | Shimizu S-Pulse Japan J-League |
1-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 13/09 | Tokyo Verdy Japan J-League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 6 | D |
| 06/09 | Gamba Osaka Japan J-League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 02/09 | Fagiano Okayama Japan J-League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 29/08 | Kawasaki Frontale Japan J-League |
2-4 | 2-4 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 21/08 | FC Tokyo Japan J-League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 15/08 | Machida Zelvia Japan J-League |
0-2 | 0-4 | 2 | 3 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Cerezo Osaka vs JEF Utd Chiba?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Cerezo Osaka win (54%). Probabilities: Cerezo Osaka 54%, draw 25%, JEF Utd Chiba 21%.
How many goals are expected in Cerezo Osaka vs JEF Utd Chiba?
The model expects 2.84 goals (Cerezo Osaka 1.8 · JEF Utd Chiba 1.04), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Cerezo Osaka vs JEF Utd Chiba?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.