Football · Japan J-League · 25/10, 08:00

Prediction: FC Tokyo vs Mito Hollyhock

Team pages: FC Tokyo · Mito Hollyhock

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.75Total

FC Tokyo2.11

Mito Hollyhock0.64

1X2

71% 20% 9%

FC Tokyo Draw Mito Hollyhock

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

2-0 14%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Tokyo 7-3-0 (W-D-L)

DWWDWWWWWD

Mito Hollyhock 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

DWDWDLLLLL

Head-to-head

FC Tokyo 2–1–1 Mito Hollyhock (4 last)

Mito Hollyhock1-0FC Tokyo
FC Tokyo5-2Mito Hollyhock
Mito Hollyhock1-1FC Tokyo
FC Tokyo2-0Mito Hollyhock

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Tokyo 1612 · Mito Hollyhock 1490

	FC Tokyo	Draw	Mito Hollyhock
Our model	71%	20%	9%
Market	71%	20%	9%

Estimated total (ours) 2.75 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Tokyo (rating 1612 vs 1490).
H2H favours FC Tokyo: 2-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 4.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Tokyo	Mito Hollyhock
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 0.3	1.1 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.1	0.6 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/70/0%	30/60/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 5.5	1.7 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.4 / 0.2	2.3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.33

X4.75

210.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.98

2 (+1.5)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.93

Under 2.751.88

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 07:15

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.33 → 1.33	Bet365 1.33
X	4.75 → 4.75	Pinn 5.36 ★
2	10.00 → 10.00	Bet365 10.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 6.1% Pinnacle margin 5.8%

Time*	1	X	2
06:54 +22’	1.33	4.75	10.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
12:19 +11’	1.29	5.28	9.32
13:13 +15’	1.30▲	5.38▲	9.63▲
00:52 +27’	1.30▲	5.36▼	9.59▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Tokyo 2–1–1 Mito Hollyhock

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/10/26 Japan J-League Cup	Mito Hollyhock	1-0 HT 0-0	FC Tokyo
24/04/26 Japan J-League	FC Tokyo	5-2 HT 3-1	Mito Hollyhock
14/03/26 Japan J-League	Mito Hollyhock	1-1 HT 0-0	FC Tokyo
11/11/15 Japan FA Cup	FC Tokyo	2-0 HT 1-0	Mito Hollyhock

Standings · Japan J-League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Machida Zelvia	11	8	2	1	30	10	26
2	FC Tokyo	11	7	3	1	21	8	24
3	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	11	7	2	2	25	10	23
4	Vissel Kobe	11	7	1	3	18	11	22
5	Kashiwa Reysol	11	7	1	3	22	17	22
6	Kashima Antlers	11	6	2	3	23	18	20
7	Kawasaki Frontale	11	5	4	2	23	17	19
8	Urawa Red Diamonds	11	6	0	5	20	23	18
9	Yokohama F-Marinos	11	4	5	2	15	11	17
10	Fagiano Okayama	11	5	1	5	14	15	16
11	Shimizu S-Pulse	11	4	2	5	10	16	14
12	Nagoya Grampus	11	4	1	6	13	17	13
13	Cerezo Osaka	11	3	4	4	10	17	13
14	V-Varen Nagasaki	11	3	3	5	15	18	12
15	Gamba Osaka	11	2	4	5	12	19	10
16	Mito Hollyhock	11	2	3	6	12	16	9
17	Kyoto Sanga FC	11	2	3	6	13	21	9
18	Avispa Fukuoka	11	2	1	8	12	18	7
19	JEF Utd Chiba	11	1	3	7	10	22	6
20	Tokyo Verdy	11	0	5	6	6	20	5

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Tokyo	Mito Hollyhock
Urawa Red Diamonds	3-0 W	0-1 L
Gamba Osaka	2-0 W	1-1 D
Kyoto Sanga FC	2-0 W	3-1 W
Shimizu S-Pulse	1-1 D	1-2 L
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 0 L	1 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: FC Tokyo (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Tokyo

DWWDWWWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/10	Kashiwa Reysol Japan J-League	0-0	0-0	4	7	D
17/10	Tokyo Verdy Japan J-League	1-0	4-0	11	3	W
10/10	Urawa Red Diamonds Japan J-League	0-0	3-0	3	1	W
19/09	Nagoya Grampus Japan J-League	0-0	1-0	2	5	W
12/09	Gamba Osaka Japan J-League	1-0	2-0	13	3	W
06/09	Kyoto Sanga FC Japan J-League	0-0	2-0	7	3	W
02/09	Shimizu S-Pulse Japan J-League	0-0	1-1	3	0	D
29/08	V-Varen Nagasaki Japan J-League	2-0	3-0	3	3	W
21/08	JEF Utd Chiba Japan J-League	0-0	2-0	5	1	W
15/08	Vissel Kobe Japan J-League	1-1	2-2	4	0	D

Mito Hollyhock

DWDWDLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/10	Fagiano Okayama Japan J-League	0-0	0-2	2	1	L
17/10	Urawa Red Diamonds Japan J-League	0-0	0-1	0	3	L
11/10	Shimizu S-Pulse Japan J-League	0-0	1-2	7	3	L
19/09	Yokohama F-Marinos Japan J-League	0-1	0-2	5	5	L
12/09	Kawasaki Frontale Japan J-League	0-0	0-1	2	3	L
05/09	Avispa Fukuoka Japan J-League	0-0	1-1	2	5	D
02/09	Kashima Antlers Japan J-League	2-0	4-2	2	2	W
29/08	Machida Zelvia Japan J-League	1-1	1-1	3	1	D
22/08	Kyoto Sanga FC Japan J-League	2-0	3-1	7	0	W
15/08	Gamba Osaka Japan J-League	1-0	1-1	9	1	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Tokyo vs Mito Hollyhock?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Tokyo win (71%). Probabilities: FC Tokyo 71%, draw 20%, Mito Hollyhock 9%.

How many goals are expected in FC Tokyo vs Mito Hollyhock?

The model expects 2.75 goals (FC Tokyo 2.11 · Mito Hollyhock 0.64), with a 53% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Tokyo vs Mito Hollyhock?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.