Football · Japan J-League · 25/10, 08:00

Prediction: Kawasaki Frontale vs Fagiano Okayama

Team pages: Kawasaki Frontale · Fagiano Okayama

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.02Total

Kawasaki Frontale1.68

Fagiano Okayama1.35

1X2

44% 26% 30%

Kawasaki Frontale Draw Fagiano Okayama

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Kawasaki Frontale 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

DDWLWWDLWW

Fagiano Okayama 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WDLWWWLLLW

Head-to-head

Kawasaki Frontale 0–3–0 Fagiano Okayama (3 last)

Kawasaki Frontale1-1Fagiano Okayama
Fagiano Okayama0-0Kawasaki Frontale
Fagiano Okayama1-1Kawasaki Frontale

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Kawasaki Frontale 1581 · Fagiano Okayama 1525

	Kawasaki Frontale	Draw	Fagiano Okayama
Our model	44%	26%	30%
Market	44%	27%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 3.02 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Kawasaki Frontale (rating 1581 vs 1525).
Cards-heavy: 6.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Kawasaki Frontale	Fagiano Okayama
Goals for / against (FT)	2.2 / 1.6	1.3 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.6	0.6 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	10/80/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 4.4	3 / 5.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0.2	3.2 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.15

X3.50

23.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.82

2 (+0.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.752.00

Under 2.751.80

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 15:30

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.20 → 2.15▼	Bet365 2.15
X	3.40 → 3.50▲	Pinn 3.63 ★
2	3.10 → 3.20▲	Pinn 3.26

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 6.3% Pinnacle margin 5.2%

Time*	1	X	2
05:59 +18’	2.20	3.40	3.10
12:13 +10’	2.15▼	3.40	3.10
15:12 +18’	2.15	3.50▲	3.20▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
12:19 +12’	2.03	3.54	3.47
13:12 +15’	2.21▲	3.59▲	3.14▼
09:01 +13’	2.13▼	3.63▲	3.26▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Kawasaki Frontale 0–3–0 Fagiano Okayama

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/11/25 Japan J-League	Kawasaki Frontale	1-1 HT 0-0	Fagiano Okayama
16/03/25 Japan J-League	Fagiano Okayama	0-0 HT 0-0	Kawasaki Frontale
14/08/19 Japan Cup	Fagiano Okayama	1-1 HT 0-0	Kawasaki Frontale

Standings · Japan J-League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Machida Zelvia	11	8	2	1	30	10	26
2	FC Tokyo	11	7	3	1	21	8	24
3	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	11	7	2	2	25	10	23
4	Vissel Kobe	11	7	1	3	18	11	22
5	Kashiwa Reysol	11	7	1	3	22	17	22
6	Kashima Antlers	11	6	2	3	23	18	20
7	Kawasaki Frontale	11	5	4	2	23	17	19
8	Urawa Red Diamonds	11	6	0	5	20	23	18
9	Yokohama F-Marinos	11	4	5	2	15	11	17
10	Fagiano Okayama	11	5	1	5	14	15	16
11	Shimizu S-Pulse	11	4	2	5	10	16	14
12	Nagoya Grampus	11	4	1	6	13	17	13
13	Cerezo Osaka	11	3	4	4	10	17	13
14	V-Varen Nagasaki	11	3	3	5	15	18	12
15	Gamba Osaka	11	2	4	5	12	19	10
16	Mito Hollyhock	11	2	3	6	12	16	9
17	Kyoto Sanga FC	11	2	3	6	13	21	9
18	Avispa Fukuoka	11	2	1	8	12	18	7
19	JEF Utd Chiba	11	1	3	7	10	22	6
20	Tokyo Verdy	11	0	5	6	6	20	5

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Kawasaki Frontale	Fagiano Okayama
Vissel Kobe	2-1 W	0-3 L
Nagoya Grampus	1-2 L	1-2 L
Mito Hollyhock	1-0 W	2-0 W
JEF Utd Chiba	4-2 W	2-1 W
Sanfrecce Hiroshima	1-1 D	3-2 W
Kyoto Sanga FC	2-2 D	1-2 L
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 1 L	3 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Kawasaki Frontale (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Kawasaki Frontale

DDWLWWDLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/10	Vissel Kobe Japan J-League	0-0	2-1	4	2	W
17/10	Cerezo Osaka Japan J-League	2-1	4-2	2	5	W
11/10	Nagoya Grampus Japan J-League	1-1	1-2	4	3	L
19/09	Kashima Antlers Japan J-League	1-1	3-3	3	4	D
12/09	Mito Hollyhock Japan J-League	0-0	1-0	7	3	W
06/09	Shimizu S-Pulse Japan J-League	1-0	3-1	8	5	W
02/09	Machida Zelvia Japan J-League	0-0	1-2	2	0	L
29/08	JEF Utd Chiba Japan J-League	4-2	4-2	5	6	W
22/08	Sanfrecce Hiroshima Japan J-League	0-1	1-1	3	3	D
15/08	Kyoto Sanga FC Japan J-League	1-0	2-2	6	3	D

Fagiano Okayama

WDLWWWLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/10	Mito Hollyhock Japan J-League	0-0	2-0	4	1	W
18/10	Vissel Kobe Japan J-League	0-0	0-3	10	4	L
10/10	Avispa Fukuoka Japan J-League	0-1	1-2	3	5	L
19/09	Kyoto Sanga FC Japan J-League	1-1	1-2	7	5	L
13/09	Urawa Red Diamonds Japan J-League	1-1	2-1	8	4	W
06/09	Sanfrecce Hiroshima Japan J-League	2-1	3-2	2	3	W
02/09	JEF Utd Chiba Japan J-League	1-1	2-1	5	3	W
29/08	Nagoya Grampus Japan J-League	1-1	1-2	9	5	L
22/08	Tokyo Verdy Japan J-League	0-0	0-0	6	3	D
15/08	V-Varen Nagasaki Japan J-League	0-0	1-0	5	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Kawasaki Frontale vs Fagiano Okayama?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Kawasaki Frontale win (44%). Probabilities: Kawasaki Frontale 44%, draw 26%, Fagiano Okayama 30%.

How many goals are expected in Kawasaki Frontale vs Fagiano Okayama?

The model expects 3.02 goals (Kawasaki Frontale 1.68 · Fagiano Okayama 1.35), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Kawasaki Frontale vs Fagiano Okayama?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.