Football · Japan J-League · 25/10, 06:00

Prediction: Nagoya Grampus vs Yokohama F-Marinos

Team pages: Nagoya Grampus · Yokohama F-Marinos

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.68Total

Nagoya Grampus1.39

Yokohama F-Marinos1.28

1X2

39% 28% 34%

Nagoya Grampus Draw Yokohama F-Marinos

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Nagoya Grampus 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LWWLLLLWWD

Yokohama F-Marinos 4-5-1 (W-D-L)

WWLDWDWDDD

Head-to-head

Nagoya Grampus 4–2 Yokohama F-Marinos (6 last)

Yokohama F-Marinos3-0Nagoya Grampus
Nagoya Grampus2-0Yokohama F-Marinos
Yokohama F-Marinos0-2Nagoya Grampus
Nagoya Grampus1-2Yokohama F-Marinos
Yokohama F-Marinos1-3Nagoya Grampus
Nagoya Grampus2-1Yokohama F-Marinos

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Nagoya Grampus 1522 · Yokohama F-Marinos 1568

	Nagoya Grampus	Draw	Yokohama F-Marinos
Our model	38%	28%	33%
Market	39%	27%	34%

Estimated total (ours) 2.68 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Yokohama F-Marinos (rating 1522 vs 1568).
H2H favours Nagoya Grampus: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Nagoya Grampus	Yokohama F-Marinos
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.6	1.2 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.7	0.6 / 0.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	50/50/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 3.9	2.1 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.2	4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.40

X3.50

22.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.02

2 (+0.25)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.98

Under 2.751.82

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 14:26

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.38 → 2.40▲	Bet365 2.40
X	3.40 → 3.50▲	Pinn 3.59
2	2.70 → 2.75▲	Pinn 2.84 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 6.6% Pinnacle margin 4.9%

Time*	1	X	2
05:21 +56’	2.38	3.40	2.70
14:19 +7’	2.40▲	3.50▲	2.75▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
12:19 +12’	2.38	3.49	2.83
13:12 +15’	2.40▲	3.53▲	2.85▲
15:43 +38’	2.41▲	3.50▼	2.86▲
12:46 +36’	2.38▼	3.61▲	2.83▼
13:48 +37’	2.39▲	3.59▼	2.84▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Nagoya Grampus 4–0–2 Yokohama F-Marinos

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Date	Home	Score	Away
20/07/25 Japan J-League	Yokohama F-Marinos	3-0 HT 2-0	Nagoya Grampus
02/04/25 Japan J-League	Nagoya Grampus	2-0 HT 0-0	Yokohama F-Marinos
08/12/24 Japan J-League	Yokohama F-Marinos	0-2 HT 0-1	Nagoya Grampus
13/10/24 Japan J-League Cup	Nagoya Grampus	1-2 HT 0-1	Yokohama F-Marinos
09/10/24 Japan J-League Cup	Yokohama F-Marinos	1-3 HT 1-2	Nagoya Grampus
30/03/24 Japan J-League	Nagoya Grampus	2-1 HT 0-0	Yokohama F-Marinos

Standings · Japan J-League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Machida Zelvia	11	8	2	1	30	10	26
2	FC Tokyo	11	7	3	1	21	8	24
3	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	11	7	2	2	25	10	23
4	Vissel Kobe	11	7	1	3	18	11	22
5	Kashiwa Reysol	11	7	1	3	22	17	22
6	Kashima Antlers	11	6	2	3	23	18	20
7	Kawasaki Frontale	11	5	4	2	23	17	19
8	Urawa Red Diamonds	11	6	0	5	20	23	18
9	Yokohama F-Marinos	11	4	5	2	15	11	17
10	Fagiano Okayama	11	5	1	5	14	15	16
11	Shimizu S-Pulse	11	4	2	5	10	16	14
12	Nagoya Grampus	11	4	1	6	13	17	13
13	Cerezo Osaka	11	3	4	4	10	17	13
14	V-Varen Nagasaki	11	3	3	5	15	18	12
15	Gamba Osaka	11	2	4	5	12	19	10
16	Mito Hollyhock	11	2	3	6	12	16	9
17	Kyoto Sanga FC	11	2	3	6	13	21	9
18	Avispa Fukuoka	11	2	1	8	12	18	7
19	JEF Utd Chiba	11	1	3	7	10	22	6
20	Tokyo Verdy	11	0	5	6	6	20	5

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Nagoya Grampus	Yokohama F-Marinos
Cerezo Osaka	1-1 D	0-0 D
Kashiwa Reysol	3-1 W	2-0 W
Machida Zelvia	1-3 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Yokohama F-Marinos (1 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Nagoya Grampus

LWWLLLLWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/10	Cerezo Osaka Japan J-League	1-0	1-1	2	5	D
17/10	Kashiwa Reysol Japan J-League	2-1	3-1	2	2	W
11/10	Kawasaki Frontale Japan J-League	1-1	2-1	6	3	W
19/09	FC Tokyo Japan J-League	0-0	0-1	4	5	L
12/09	V-Varen Nagasaki Japan J-League	0-1	0-2	4	2	L
06/09	Machida Zelvia Japan J-League	0-1	1-3	6	3	L
02/09	Sanfrecce Hiroshima Japan J-League	0-0	0-3	1	3	L
29/08	Fagiano Okayama Japan J-League	1-1	2-1	6	5	W
22/08	Gamba Osaka Japan J-League	1-1	3-1	4	4	W
15/08	Kashima Antlers Japan J-League	0-1	1-2	4	4	L

Yokohama F-Marinos

WWLDWDWDDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/10	Tokyo Verdy Japan J-League	1-0	2-2	6	2	D
17/10	JEF Utd Chiba Japan J-League	0-0	0-0	6	7	D
10/10	Cerezo Osaka Japan J-League	0-0	0-0	4	6	D
19/09	Mito Hollyhock Japan J-League	1-0	2-0	1	5	W
12/09	Machida Zelvia Japan J-League	1-0	1-1	6	5	D
06/09	Kashiwa Reysol Japan J-League	1-0	2-0	3	2	W
02/09	Kyoto Sanga FC Japan J-League	0-0	1-1	3	3	D
29/08	Urawa Red Diamonds Japan J-League	1-1	2-3	3	4	L
22/08	Vissel Kobe Japan J-League	1-0	1-0	6	6	W
15/08	Shimizu S-Pulse Japan J-League	0-0	1-0	5	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Nagoya Grampus vs Yokohama F-Marinos?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Nagoya Grampus win (39%). Probabilities: Nagoya Grampus 39%, draw 28%, Yokohama F-Marinos 34%.

How many goals are expected in Nagoya Grampus vs Yokohama F-Marinos?

The model expects 2.68 goals (Nagoya Grampus 1.39 · Yokohama F-Marinos 1.28), with a 54% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Nagoya Grampus vs Yokohama F-Marinos?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.