Football · Japan J-League · 25/10, 07:00

Prediction: Urawa Red Diamonds vs V-Varen Nagasaki

Team pages: Urawa Red Diamonds · V-Varen Nagasaki

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.24Total

Urawa Red Diamonds2.12

V-Varen Nagasaki1.11

1X2

59% 24% 18%

Urawa Red Diamonds Draw V-Varen Nagasaki

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Urawa Red Diamonds 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

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V-Varen Nagasaki 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Urawa Red Diamonds 0–2–1 V-Varen Nagasaki (3 last)

V-Varen Nagasaki1-0Urawa Red Diamonds
Urawa Red Diamonds0-0V-Varen Nagasaki
V-Varen Nagasaki1-1Urawa Red Diamonds

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Urawa Red Diamonds 1577 · V-Varen Nagasaki 1485

	Urawa Red Diamonds	Draw	V-Varen Nagasaki
Our model	60%	22%	18%
Market	58%	25%	17%

Estimated total (ours) 3.24 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Urawa Red Diamonds (rating 1577 vs 1485).
Cards-heavy: 5.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Urawa Red Diamonds	V-Varen Nagasaki
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.9	1.3 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.8	0.4 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	30/20/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 5.1	1.1 / 3.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.9 / 0.1	2.5 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.60

X3.80

25.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.77

2 (+0.75)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.752.00

Under 2.751.80

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 3.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 06:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.60 → 1.60	Pinn 1.62
X	3.80 → 3.80	Pinn 4.09 ★
2	5.50 → 5.50	Bet365 5.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7% Pinnacle margin 5.6%

Time*	1	X	2
06:16 +1’	1.60	3.80	5.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
12:42 +45’	1.60	4.04	5.10
13:45 +38’	1.62▲	4.09▲	5.19▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Urawa Red Diamonds 0–2–1 V-Varen Nagasaki

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/05/24 Japan J-League Cup	V-Varen Nagasaki	1-0 HT 0-0	Urawa Red Diamonds
05/08/18 Japan J-League	Urawa Red Diamonds	0-0 HT 0-0	V-Varen Nagasaki
10/03/18 Japan J-League	V-Varen Nagasaki	1-1 HT 1-0	Urawa Red Diamonds

Standings · Japan J-League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Machida Zelvia	11	8	2	1	30	10	26
2	FC Tokyo	11	7	3	1	21	8	24
3	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	11	7	2	2	25	10	23
4	Vissel Kobe	11	7	1	3	18	11	22
5	Kashiwa Reysol	11	7	1	3	22	17	22
6	Kashima Antlers	11	6	2	3	23	18	20
7	Kawasaki Frontale	11	5	4	2	23	17	19
8	Urawa Red Diamonds	11	6	0	5	20	23	18
9	Yokohama F-Marinos	11	4	5	2	15	11	17
10	Fagiano Okayama	11	5	1	5	14	15	16
11	Shimizu S-Pulse	11	4	2	5	10	16	14
12	Nagoya Grampus	11	4	1	6	13	17	13
13	Cerezo Osaka	11	3	4	4	10	17	13
14	V-Varen Nagasaki	11	3	3	5	15	18	12
15	Gamba Osaka	11	2	4	5	12	19	10
16	Mito Hollyhock	11	2	3	6	12	16	9
17	Kyoto Sanga FC	11	2	3	6	13	21	9
18	Avispa Fukuoka	11	2	1	8	12	18	7
19	JEF Utd Chiba	11	1	3	7	10	22	6
20	Tokyo Verdy	11	0	5	6	6	20	5

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Urawa Red Diamonds	V-Varen Nagasaki
JEF Utd Chiba	3-2 W	1-1 D
FC Tokyo	0-3 L	0-3 L
Fagiano Okayama	1-2 L	0-1 L
Kashima Antlers	1-0 W	0-2 L
Sanfrecce Hiroshima	1-4 L	4-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 3 L	1 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Urawa Red Diamonds (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Urawa Red Diamonds

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/10	JEF Utd Chiba Japan J-League	1-1	3-2	6	5	W
17/10	Mito Hollyhock Japan J-League	0-0	1-0	13	3	W
10/10	FC Tokyo Japan J-League	0-0	0-3	3	1	L
19/09	Tokyo Verdy Japan J-League	3-0	3-1	8	2	W
13/09	Fagiano Okayama Japan J-League	1-1	1-2	4	4	L
06/09	Kashima Antlers Japan J-League	1-0	1-0	8	4	W
02/09	Avispa Fukuoka Japan J-League	1-2	3-2	1	3	W
29/08	Yokohama F-Marinos Japan J-League	1-1	3-2	4	4	W
23/08	Machida Zelvia Japan J-League	1-1	1-3	3	1	L
15/08	Sanfrecce Hiroshima Japan J-League	1-2	1-4	1	3	L

V-Varen Nagasaki

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/10	Sanfrecce Hiroshima Japan J-League	2-0	4-0	0	3	W
17/10	Kashima Antlers Japan J-League	0-2	0-2	5	3	L
11/10	JEF Utd Chiba Japan J-League	0-1	1-1	4	3	D
19/09	Cerezo Osaka Japan J-League	1-0	1-1	7	5	D
12/09	Nagoya Grampus Japan J-League	1-0	2-0	3	2	W
06/09	Vissel Kobe Japan J-League	0-2	1-3	1	2	L
02/09	Gamba Osaka Japan J-League	0-0	2-2	5	3	D
29/08	FC Tokyo Japan J-League	0-2	0-3	7	3	L
21/08	Kashiwa Reysol Japan J-League	0-1	2-4	2	1	L
15/08	Fagiano Okayama Japan J-League	0-0	0-1	1	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Urawa Red Diamonds vs V-Varen Nagasaki?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Urawa Red Diamonds win (59%). Probabilities: Urawa Red Diamonds 59%, draw 24%, V-Varen Nagasaki 18%.

How many goals are expected in Urawa Red Diamonds vs V-Varen Nagasaki?

The model expects 3.24 goals (Urawa Red Diamonds 2.12 · V-Varen Nagasaki 1.11), with a 52% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Urawa Red Diamonds vs V-Varen Nagasaki?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.