Football · Japan J-League · 17/10, 07:00

Prediction: Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Kyoto Sanga FC

Team pages: Sanfrecce Hiroshima · Kyoto Sanga FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.05Total

Sanfrecce Hiroshima2.14

Kyoto Sanga FC0.92

1X2

64% 21% 14%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima Draw Kyoto Sanga FC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

2-0 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Sanfrecce Hiroshima 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

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Kyoto Sanga FC 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2–1–3 Kyoto Sanga FC (6 last)

Kyoto Sanga FC0-4Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Sanfrecce Hiroshima1-2Kyoto Sanga FC
Sanfrecce Hiroshima1-1Kyoto Sanga FC
Kyoto Sanga FC1-0Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Sanfrecce Hiroshima0-1Kyoto Sanga FC
Kyoto Sanga FC0-5Sanfrecce Hiroshima

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sanfrecce Hiroshima (rating 1617 vs 1489).
H2H favours Kyoto Sanga FC: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 5.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	Kyoto Sanga FC
Goals for / against (FT)	2.6 / 0.8	1.2 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.4	0.4 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 6.5	1.9 / 3.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.6 / 0.4	3.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.89

Under 3.251.94

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 10:29

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	1.33 → 1.35▲	Pinn 1.35
X	5.47 → 5.47	Pinn 5.47
2	7.38 → 7.58▲	Pinn 7.58

See the full journey (3)

Pinnacle margin 5.8%

Time*	1	X	2
08:13 +11’	1.33	5.47	7.38
09:13 +16’	1.34▲	5.58▲	7.57▲
10:03 +27’	1.35▲	5.47▼	7.58▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2–1–3 Kyoto Sanga FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/05/26 Japan J-League	Kyoto Sanga FC	0-4 HT 0-1	Sanfrecce Hiroshima
27/02/26 Japan J-League	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	1-2 HT 1-0	Kyoto Sanga FC
12/09/25 Japan J-League	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	1-1 HT 0-0	Kyoto Sanga FC
29/03/25 Japan J-League	Kyoto Sanga FC	1-0 HT 0-0	Sanfrecce Hiroshima
03/11/24 Japan J-League	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	0-1 HT 0-0	Kyoto Sanga FC
19/05/24 Japan J-League	Kyoto Sanga FC	0-5 HT 0-3	Sanfrecce Hiroshima

Standings · Japan J-League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Kashiwa Reysol	9	7	0	2	21	14	21
2	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	9	6	2	1	22	6	20
3	Machida Zelvia	9	6	2	1	22	10	20
4	FC Tokyo	9	6	2	1	17	8	20
5	Vissel Kobe	9	6	1	2	14	9	19
6	Kashima Antlers	9	5	1	3	19	16	16
7	Yokohama F-Marinos	9	4	3	2	13	9	15
8	Kawasaki Frontale	9	3	4	2	17	14	13
9	Fagiano Okayama	9	4	1	4	12	12	13
10	Shimizu S-Pulse	9	4	1	4	8	9	13
11	Urawa Red Diamonds	9	4	0	5	16	21	12
12	Cerezo Osaka	9	3	3	3	7	12	12
13	Mito Hollyhock	9	2	3	4	12	13	9
14	V-Varen Nagasaki	9	2	3	4	11	16	9
15	Nagoya Grampus	9	3	0	6	9	15	9
16	Kyoto Sanga FC	9	2	2	5	11	16	8
17	Avispa Fukuoka	9	2	1	6	11	13	7
18	Gamba Osaka	9	1	3	5	8	16	6
19	JEF Utd Chiba	9	1	2	6	8	19	5
20	Tokyo Verdy	9	0	4	5	4	14	4

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	Kyoto Sanga FC
Avispa Fukuoka	1-0 W	2-1 W
Fagiano Okayama	2-3 L	2-1 W
Kawasaki Frontale	1-1 D	2-2 D
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 1 L	2 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Kyoto Sanga FC (1 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Tokyo Verdy Japan J-League	0-0	2-0	4	4	W
19/09	Avispa Fukuoka Japan J-League	0-0	1-0	16	6	W
12/09	Cerezo Osaka Japan J-League	3-0	6-1	9	1	W
06/09	Fagiano Okayama Japan J-League	1-2	2-3	8	3	L
02/09	Nagoya Grampus Japan J-League	0-0	3-0	2	3	W
29/08	Gamba Osaka Japan J-League	0-0	0-0	7	4	D
22/08	Kawasaki Frontale Japan J-League	1-0	1-1	3	3	D
15/08	Urawa Red Diamonds Japan J-League	2-1	4-1	11	3	W
08/08	JEF Utd Chiba Japan J-League	1-0	3-0	3	2	W
23/05	Nagoya Grampus Japan J-League	2-1	4-2	2	1	W

Kyoto Sanga FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Machida Zelvia Japan J-League	0-0	0-1	4	2	L
19/09	Fagiano Okayama Japan J-League	1-1	2-1	3	5	W
11/09	Kashiwa Reysol Japan J-League	2-0	2-3	7	5	L
06/09	FC Tokyo Japan J-League	0-0	0-2	4	3	L
02/09	Yokohama F-Marinos Japan J-League	0-0	1-1	4	3	D
29/08	Avispa Fukuoka Japan J-League	1-0	2-1	1	4	W
22/08	Mito Hollyhock Japan J-League	0-2	1-3	1	0	L
15/08	Kawasaki Frontale Japan J-League	0-1	2-2	1	3	D
09/08	V-Varen Nagasaki Japan J-League	0-2	1-2	4	4	L
23/05	V-Varen Nagasaki Japan J-League	0-0	1-0	7	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Kyoto Sanga FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Sanfrecce Hiroshima win (64%). Probabilities: Sanfrecce Hiroshima 64%, draw 21%, Kyoto Sanga FC 14%.

How many goals are expected in Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Kyoto Sanga FC?

The model expects 3.05 goals (Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2.14 · Kyoto Sanga FC 0.92), with a 53% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Kyoto Sanga FC?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.